Cutting the cord

[falafel]

This article is almost a year old, but it details how ESPN and TNT, and by extension the NBA, are thundering towards the edge of the cliff and not taking their foot off the gas.

So how many of those ten million NBA fans would pay for the NBA if it wasn't already a part of their cable bills? Let's be generous and say it's two million diehard fans, the same number paying for the NFL Sunday Ticket.

That would mean that the NBA's television package on the open market offered direct to fans would garner $540 million a year.

That's a deficit of over $2 billion dollars.

So if the market would only support a payment of $540 million and the market is actually paying nearly $2.7 billion, that's the very definition of a bubble. (The reason ESPN and TNT are paying this much of a premium is two fold: 1. their market is artifically propped up by subscribers who never watch their network and 2. the bubble only stays afloat if you can justify your monthly subscriber fees. Which means, you guessed it, you have to overspend.)

http://www.outkickthecoverage.com/th...ainable-070616

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

This article is almost a year old, but it details how ESPN and TNT, and by extension the NBA, are thundering towards the edge of the cliff and not taking their foot off the gas.



http://www.outkickthecoverage.com/th...ainable-070616

Outkick had a mailbag question today about if a guy should join Mormonism to marry his girlfriend.

"My girlfriend wants me to change my religion for her in order to get married but Mormons are weird. I really like this girl but don't want to have to wear funny underwear for the rest of my life or give up drinking. What do I do?"

All religions are weird if you don't grow up in them. Think about what Christians believe if you just heard about Christianity. "So you believe the Son of God was born in a manger to a virgin two thousand years ago? And that this dude named Jesus rose from the dead three days after he was crucified and ascended into heaven?"

I mean, let's just take a step back and pretend that one of your buddies came to you and said, "So I'm dating this chick named Mary and we've never had sex before, but she's pregnant now and she claims she's still a virgin and that God made her pregnant. And I totally believe her because she would never lie to me. Should I stay with her?"

Every single person reading this would say no, right?

Yet that's what happened to Joseph according to Christians. And everyone who is religious will get mad at me for saying I think it's way more likely that Joseph and Mary were playing just the tip and Joseph got carried away and then later they decided to say God got Mary pregnant.

Forgive me for being skeptical, but I'm just not buying supernatural pregnancies.

My point is simple -- all religions require crazy, illogical leaps of faith.

The crazy thing about the Mormon faith is it requires all these leaps of faith to happen AFTER AMERICA BECAME A COUNTRY.

George Washington is older than Mormonism.

So, anyway, if you really love this girl you become a Jack Mormon. There are plenty of people just like you, Mormons in name who continue to do non-Mormon things. For instance, you can still drink, not wear Mormon underwear and drink caffeine and call yourself a Mormon.

I'd be straightforward with your potential partner, tell her you're fine with changing religions but you aren't going to change your behavior when it comes to alcohol and underwear.

If she's not okay with that and you truly aren't willing to budge either that's fine, but you guys need to break up.

You could also do what most people do when it comes to religion, say you're religious but only so you get more likes on your Facebook posts. Hell, this got Trump elected President. It's not like you have to pass a test. (Note: you may have to pass a test to become Mormon, I have no idea. And if that's the case there is no woman alive I would study to pass a religion test to marry. Not one.)

I would, however, be fine doing what most people do when they change religions -- don't change your life at all but announce you're now a new religion.

At least that's what I did when I became Muslim. And if there's one thing I've learned since then it's that most Muslims are very easy going and don't take their religion that seriously.

Clay can be a button pushing annoyance, but he is dead on that ESPN becoming the network of liberal message mixed with sports instead of just sports has hastened the downfall.

[Northwestcoug]

This article is almost a year old, but it details how ESPN and TNT, and by extension the NBA, are thundering towards the edge of the cliff and not taking their foot off the gas.



http://www.outkickthecoverage.com/th...ainable-070616

That's an interesting article. Thanks.

[New Mexican Disaster]

This stuff makes me worry about the BYU/ESPN partnership going forward.

[falafel]

This stuff makes me worry about the BYU/ESPN partnership going forward.

Easy one to cut. At the same time, a little contract like that one is only a drop in the bucket.

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[Pelado]

This stuff makes me worry about the BYU/ESPN partnership going forward.

Easy one to cut. At the same time, a little contract like that one is only a drop in the bucket.

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I would be pretty surprised if BYU holds out for lots of cash. And with the infrastructure in place, it's got to be cost-effective for ESPN to broadcast BYU games.

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[Art Vandelay]

Outkick had a mailbag question today about if a guy should join Mormonism to marry his girlfriend.

Clay can be a button pushing annoyance, but he is dead on that ESPN becoming the network of liberal message mixed with sports instead of just sports has hastened the downfall.

At first glance this seems counter-intuitive to me. Millennials are more likely to cut cord + Millennials are significantly more liberal = Happy customers. However, like most of the equations I wrote on my organic chemistry tests, I was missing the obvious disconnect:

* Millennials are going to cut the cord, regardless of what the content is. See: Thrones, Game of. ESPN's main audience >35 YO males + 40YO white males are more likely to be conservative = Unhappy customers.

[falafel]

At first glance this seems counter-intuitive to me. Millennials are more likely to cut cord + Millennials are significantly more liberal = Happy customers. However, like most of the equations I wrote on my organic chemistry tests, I was missing the obvious disconnect:

* Millennials are going to cut the cord, regardless of what the content is. See: Thrones, Game of. ESPN's main audience >35 YO males + 40YO white males are more likely to be conservative = Unhappy customers.

Plus, as the Outkick article (if not this one, another one of his) shows, sports viewers are overwhelmingly conservative. ESPN is throwing out a lot of liberal content to a very conservative audience.

[old_gregg]

At first glance this seems counter-intuitive to me. Millennials are more likely to cut cord + Millennials are significantly more liberal = Happy customers. However, like most of the equations I wrote on my organic chemistry tests, I was missing the obvious disconnect:

* Millennials are going to cut the cord, regardless of what the content is. See: Thrones, Game of. ESPN's main audience >35 YO males + 40YO white males are more likely to be conservative = Unhappy customers.

huh? hbo go is thriving because of the content.

[Art Vandelay]

huh? hbo go is thriving because of the content.

Isn't HBOGO one of the prime examples of cord cutting? Maybe I'm wrong, but I thought HBO allowed people to pay for GO without being an actual HBO subscriber.

[Moliere]

huh? hbo go is thriving because of the content.

Comparing hbo is dumb. HBO has always been subscription based outside of a normal cable package. ESPN doesn't have that and likely couldn't succeed that way under their current contracts.

I've been ignorant to ESPN's liberal content since I don't watch their none sports stuff. But I just saw that they are now publishing feminist poetry Yeah, no wonder they are tanking.


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[old_gregg]

Isn't HBOGO one of the prime examples of cord cutting? Maybe I'm wrong, but I thought HBO allowed people to pay for GO without being an actual HBO subscriber.

maybe. my point is, content is the only thing that matters.

[Shaka]

Comparing hbo is dumb. HBO has always been subscription based outside of a normal cable package. ESPN doesn't have that and likely couldn't succeed that way under their current contracts.

I've been ignorant to ESPN's liberal content since I don't watch their none sports stuff. But I just saw that they are now publishing feminist poetry Yeah, no wonder they are tanking.


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I would actually pay a small fee for ESPN content. I'm a cord cutter and currently have PlaystationVue, Hulu, and HBO Now. I normally get ESPN from PSV but I'm getting rid of PSV for the summer. In the interim I'd pay for ESPN.

[Moliere]

I would actually pay a small fee for ESPN content. I'm a cord cutter and currently have PlaystationVue, Hulu, and HBO Now. I normally get ESPN from PSV but I'm getting rid of PSV for the summer. In the interim I'd pay for ESPN.

I would pay for it as well, however I'd only watch live games. If I want to see highlights, I go to their website (or app) and watch highlights of games I care about. Gone are the days that I have to sit through 20 minutes of baseball highlights before being able to watch Laker highlights.


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[falafel]

I would actually pay a small fee for ESPN content. I'm a cord cutter and currently have PlaystationVue, Hulu, and HBO Now. I normally get ESPN from PSV but I'm getting rid of PSV for the summer. In the interim I'd pay for ESPN.

If you paid the same monthly fee that every other cable and satellite subscriber currently pays, your monthly figure would be about $7. I would pay that. The problem is, once that a la carte option becomes available, the whole system comes crumbling down and $7/mo will no longer cover ESPN's costs. It needs all $92 million cable and satellite subscribers to pay that amount. The vast majority of those subscribers would not pay it if they had the option.

[Northwestcoug]

If you paid the same monthly fee that every other cable and satellite subscriber currently pays, your monthly figure would be about $7. I would pay that. The problem is, once that a la carte option becomes available, the whole system comes crumbling down and $7/mo will no longer cover ESPN's costs. It needs all $92 million cable and satellite subscribers to pay that amount. The vast majority of those subscribers would not pay it if they had the option.

The article you posted summed that problem up nicely. ESPN is on a bubble, taking their overshare of cable revenue and spending it on overpriced broadcast rights. Once the bottom falls out of cable viewership, the bubble will burst.

[Moliere]

The article you posted summed that problem up nicely. ESPN is on a bubble, taking their overshare of cable revenue and spending it on overpriced broadcast rights. Once the bottom falls out of cable viewership, the bubble will burst.

Once the bubble bursts, HD trucks will become scarce and BYU will rule the landscape.


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[wuapinmon]

It's going to be interesting seeing what this 30-year bubble bursting does to player salaries.

[Uncle Ted]

I would pay for it as well, however I'd only watch live games. If I want to see highlights, I go to their website (or app) and watch highlights of games I care about. Gone are the days that I have to sit through 20 minutes of baseball highlights before being able to watch Laker highlights.

If cable went to an À la carte model I would only buy sports channels for live events. Nothing else on cable is interesting to me. Usually I wait for most movies and TV shows to hit Netflix or something before watching them even if that means I wait for the season to end before watching it. There is lots of other TV shows/movies to watch while I wait. Cable news is all just a bunch of political b*tching and very little actual news so I don't watch it any more. It is too easy to get the news I am interested in off the internet without all the other crap. The same is true for sports highlights and news as you pointed out.

I think I would even go for a pay-per-view model for sporting events that I am interested in. Say, for example, BYU lost its ESPN contract and simply changed to watch its football games live using its BYUtv streaming. To supplement the pay-per-view revenue they could also sell ads. BYU seems uniquely position to survive independently when this bubble pops. Other schools may not be so lucky. Their conference contracts may not be renewed by the networks and another round of conference realignments may leave them out in the cold.

[Omaha 680]

I'm sure supergenius Larry Scott knows the solution to all this.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

I'm sure supergenius Larry Scott knows the solution to all this.

Hahaha. In might be kind of funny if what I've complained is his biggest failure, not getting the P12 network partnered with ESPN ends up being what saves the conferece. If ESPN continues to lose at this level, the first cuts will be their conference network partners. I'm not giving Larry the credit of that forethought, but I bet he'll claim it if that happens.

[Joe Public]

Laker highlights

.

[falafel]

YouTubeTV just announced that it has added TNT/CNN/TBS, along with their associated networks. I know this was a big hole for people who watch a lot of basketball.

[Northwestcoug]

YouTubeTV just announced that it has added TNT/CNN/TBS, along with their associated networks. I know this was a big hole for people who watch a lot of basketball.

Still not available in my area

[Donuthole]

YouTubeTV just announced that it has added TNT/CNN/TBS, along with their associated networks. I know this was a big hole for people who watch a lot of basketball.

Yes it was indeed.

[falafel]

Yes it was indeed.

They also added CBS as the last local station, so they have all of them covered now. And of course, CBS is essential for March Madness.

[wuapinmon]

So, we got tired of adding streaming services and just got basic cable back; we kept Amazon, Hulu, and Netflix, but the rest (e.g. Sling, CBS) are gone. The cable company was so happy, they upped our internet service to 100 mbps for free, not a teaser rate. It was a push with getting rid of those other services. It also doesn't disconnect if the internet goes out. We still have HBO NOW too it was the same price either way.

[Bo Diddley]

I hate Comcast. I was paying over $170/month to the Devil. When I called to cancel, the best they could do was $130-something. No thanks. I'm not a gamer, so the $45-80gb lifetime rate I got from CenturyLink will do for me. Yes, I realize one day I'll need more bandwidth, but that's quite a few years off, I think.

I'm playing around with the streaming services to see who we'll stick with. Of course we use Prime and Netflix is included in our family plan with T-Mobile. For now I think we're going with Directv Now for $42.78. It has all the channels the missus likes to watch.

[falafel]

I hate Comcast. I was paying over $170/month to the Devil. When I called to cancel, the best they could do was $130-something. No thanks. I'm not a gamer, so the $45-80gb lifetime rate I got from CenturyLink will do for me. Yes, I realize one day I'll need more bandwidth, but that's quite a few years off, I think.

I'm playing around with the streaming services to see who we'll stick with. Of course we use Prime and Netflix is included in our family plan with T-Mobile. For now I think we're going with Directv Now for $42.78. It has all the channels the missus likes to watch.

Funny that you say that you don't think you'll need more than 80 GB internet (what is that, btw - your download max? Your monthly limit?) just as you are ditching cable and going all in on streaming services. You will likely wish you had faster speeds within the next 12 months.

[Northwestcoug]

Update:

We cut the cord almost a year ago now. I upped the monthly limit on our broadband, got HDTV antennas, and tried out Sling. This was on top of already having Netflix and Amazon Prime. Somewhere along the way, we subscribed to HBO, primarily to watch Westworld. We still have it, despite rarely using it now. Mrs. NWC just added MLBTV at the reduced price of 50 bucks, to watch the remaining Red Sox games

Sling is fine, but not great. We paid an extra 5 a month to get ESPNs. Streaming quality is acceptable. I'm happy that we don't have cable anymore; we wasted years of it because kids never watched it. Still, there's just not a lot of watching going on in our house, outside of Netflix. I'll start watching again when season 3 of 'The Man in the High Tower' starts. And we might revisit 'Jack Ryan', just a couple of episodes in now.

I still want to switch to YouTube TV, but it still says it isn't available for my zip code.