Screw the Stock Market...

[PaloAltoCougar]

Can someone explain why the stock market has been so strong recently? Despite the unprecedented worldwide slowdown, I'm essentially where I was when the first COVID case was announced. Even if a vaccine or effective treatment becomes available sooner than expected, the economy has still taken a major hit and can't bounce back fully for many months to come. Is this another irrational exuberance thing?

[BigFatMeanie]

Possibly a combination of things?

- Some irrational exuberance
- With interest rates so low and bond yields in the toilet, there isn't really any good place to park cash.
- The drop in March was so precipitous that for some companies the drop was an over-reaction. There are businesses out there with strong balance sheets that can weather the storm and are still worth investing in.

[Uncle Ted]

Can someone explain why the stock market has been so strong recently? Despite the unprecedented worldwide slowdown, I'm essentially where I was when the first COVID case was announced. Even if a vaccine or effective treatment becomes available sooner than expected, the economy has still taken a major hit and can't bounce back fully for many months to come. Is this another irrational exuberance thing?

One word: Drumpf. (It had nothing to do with the Fed deciding not to raise interest rates and Texas starting to open up things on Friday.)

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Free money!

[Bo Diddley]

If the meat supply chain is disrupted, it'll all go south.

[All-American]

If the meat supply chain is disrupted, it'll all go south.

What better place for the meat to go? At least it will end up somewhere that will take good care of it.

[Bo Diddley]

What better place for the meat to go? At least it will end up somewhere that will take good care of it.

I've been doing my part.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Can someone explain why the stock market has been so strong recently? Despite the unprecedented worldwide slowdown, I'm essentially where I was when the first COVID case was announced. Even if a vaccine or effective treatment becomes available sooner than expected, the economy has still taken a major hit and can't bounce back fully for many months to come. Is this another irrational exuberance thing?

It makes zero sense. Take today for example: they announce that the GDP shrunk 4.8%. That is a huge drop! GE said that $1B of earnings were wiped out due to COVID. AirBnB is major trouble. I am sure all the people leveraged on extra properties that they are using for AirBnB in trouble. Tons of other bad news. But a nod of reassurance from the Fed and a bit of good news on remdesivir and the market surges. It is almost like investors are so desperate for signs that we are turning a corner that they are pricing in the rebound before it happens. But there is going to be so much more bad news. I predict another drop.

[Bo Diddley]

It makes zero sense. Take today for example: they announce that the GDP shrunk 4.8%. That is a huge drop! GE said that $1B of earnings were wiped out due to COVID. AirBnB is major trouble. I am sure all the people leveraged on extra properties that they are using for AirBnB in trouble. Tons of other bad news. But a nod of reassurance from the Fed and a bit of good news on remdesivir and the market surges. It is almost like investors are so desperate for signs that we are turning a corner that they are pricing in the rebound before it happens. But there is going to be so much more bad news. I predict another drop.

It'll be big. We're just waiting for enough people to share enough pain. Stimulus money is keeping it at bay for now.

[Moliere]

The market is irrational when you look at it in short spurts. That being said, some forecasts a coupel weeks ago predicted GDP would drop 10%, so when it only shrinks 4.8% you get a nice rebound. That actually makes sense since GDP beat most forecasts. Also, states are opening up sooner than forecasted and the virus isn't as fatal as people thought (confirmed through the latest serological testing). The market isn't even close to what it was when it dropped so it has a long way to go to climb out of this mess.

Crude prompt month (June) was up pretty big today but it is still about $4 under the next month (July). That signals that storage will remain full for at least June but there is a bit of a prediction in the oil price that demand will pick up in July and storage will start to go down. I think waterborne storage costs around $4 per barrel per month, but obviously there are a lot of othe rfactors at play. But seeing oil prices go up signals that things might start to pick up with demand, travel, commuting, etc.

[Jeff Lebowski]

The market is irrational when you look at it in short spurts. That being said, some forecasts a coupel weeks ago predicted GDP would drop 10%, so when it only shrinks 4.8% you get a nice rebound. That actually makes sense since GDP beat most forecasts. Also, states are opening up sooner than forecasted and the virus isn't as fatal as people thought (confirmed through the latest serological testing). The market isn't even close to what it was when it dropped so it has a long way to go to climb out of this mess.

Crude prompt month (June) was up pretty big today but it is still about $4 under the next month (July). That signals that storage will remain full for at least June but there is a bit of a prediction in the oil price that demand will pick up in July and storage will start to go down. I think waterborne storage costs around $4 per barrel per month, but obviously there are a lot of othe rfactors at play. But seeing oil prices go up signals that things might start to pick up with demand, travel, commuting, etc.

The S&P is exactly where it was last October. Down 15% from the February high, but if you look at a multi-year moving trend, we aren't down much.

[myboynoah]

Can someone explain why the stock market has been so strong recently? Despite the unprecedented worldwide slowdown, I'm essentially where I was when the first COVID case was announced. Even if a vaccine or effective treatment becomes available sooner than expected, the economy has still taken a major hit and can't bounce back fully for many months to come. Is this another irrational exuberance thing?

Well, Jared Kushner did say that by July the countrey will really be rocking again.

EDIT: Sorry about that response. I involutarily coughed it up while in the throws of a TDS attack.

[myboynoah]

It makes zero sense. Take today for example: they announce that the GDP shrunk 4.8%. That is a huge drop! GE said that $1B of earnings were wiped out due to COVID. AirBnB is major trouble. I am sure all the people leveraged on extra properties that they are using for AirBnB in trouble. Tons of other bad news. But a nod of reassurance from the Fed and a bit of good news on remdesivir and the market surges. It is almost like investors are so desperate for signs that we are turning a corner that they are pricing in the rebound before it happens. But there is going to be so much more bad news. I predict another drop.

How can you say that? Are you an epidemiologist?

[Jeff Lebowski]

How can you say that? Are you an epidemiologist?

I know a guy who is a patent attorney.

[Uncle Ted]

It makes zero sense. Take today for example: they announce that the GDP shrunk 4.8%. That is a huge drop! GE said that $1B of earnings were wiped out due to COVID. AirBnB is major trouble. I am sure all the people leveraged on extra properties that they are using for AirBnB in trouble. Tons of other bad news. But a nod of reassurance from the Fed and a bit of good news on remdesivir and the market surges. It is almost like investors are so desperate for signs that we are turning a corner that they are pricing in the rebound before it happens. But there is going to be so much more bad news. I predict another drop.

Yeah, I think this market will have ups and downs but the general trend will be sideways for a while unless the dumb dems keep stalling on opening things up. If that is a case we might be headed for a tailspin going down. There are some great deals on AirBnB right now, BTW.

Now if we can just get the dems to come back to work...

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Pelosi and crew just want to watch the economy crash and burn while eating their fancy ice cream.

[Flystripper]

Screw the Stock Market...

Q1 earnings only had one month of full covid impact and it was still big. Wait until July when Q2 gets announced. It’s going to be a bloodbath.


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