Screw the Stock Market...

[wapiti]

The market is irrational when you look at it in short spurts. That being said, some forecasts a coupel weeks ago predicted GDP would drop 10%, so when it only shrinks 4.8% you get a nice rebound. That actually makes sense since GDP beat most forecasts.

It was Q1 GDP. The economy only started to contract in March, mostly late March so the number didn't reflect the true impact of the pandemic. The consensus forecast that I saw for GDP was -4.2% so it was slightly worse than expectations. This will easily be a double-digit contraction in Q2 even with things opening back up in May and June.

Regardless, the GDP report was backward looking and the market is forward looking.

[ewth8tr]

A few months ago, when everything tanked, a friend of mine sent me a referral for a free trading app. I've never really done anything with stocks, but figured I'd put a little bit in for fun and buy a few shares of some of the companies that had taken the biggest hits. Now I wish I had bought more of this one.



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[old_gregg]

A few months ago, when everything tanked, a friend of mine sent me a referral for a free trading app. I've never really done anything with stocks, but figured I'd put a little bit in for fun and buy a few shares of some of the companies that had taken the biggest hits. Now I wish I had bought more of this one.



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robinhood. vaya con dios.

[Moliere]

A few months ago, when everything tanked, a friend of mine sent me a referral for a free trading app. I've never really done anything with stocks, but figured I'd put a little bit in for fun and buy a few shares of some of the companies that had taken the biggest hits. Now I wish I had bought more of this one.



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Matador!! Random fact, their general counsel is in a stake presidency up in Dallas.

[Clark Addison]

Thanks a lot all you jerks who said the market was too high. Hope you are happy now.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Thanks a lot all you jerks who said the market was too high. Hope you are happy now.

[Jeff Lebowski]

David Tepper agrees with me.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/13/davi...d-only-99.html

Billionaire hedge fund investor David Tepper told CNBC on Wednesday the stock market is one of the most overpriced he’s ever seen, only behind 1999.

...

The S&P 500′s forward price-earnings ratio based on estimates for the next 12 months has ballooned to above 20, a level not seen since 2002.

[Paperback Writer]

While I agree that equities may be over priced, the problem is that there are few good investment alternatives. Personally, I won't make it to retirement with a 401K invested in money market funds. So over priced or not, hoping that stocks rebound and another bull market emerges.

[Jeff Lebowski]

While I agree that equities may be over priced, the problem is that there are few good investment alternatives. Personally, I won't make it to retirement with a 401K invested in money market funds. So over priced or not, hoping that stocks rebound and another bull market emerges.

Yes, of course, equities are the best long-term investment for most folks. Just an observation of the crazy valuations in the middle of the pandemic.

[myboynoah]

And the Dow jumps 500 points back over 26,000.

[PaloAltoCougar]

And the Dow jumps 500 points back over 26,000.

I don't understand this at all. I pulled a chunk of the modest nest egg away from equities early last month and I don't regret doing so. I spoke with my financial advisor earlier today and they can't explain it either. I share their belief that when 2d quarter earnings come out and the effects of high unemployment sink in, the market head south. I hope we're all wrong.

That said, I actually bought into two mutual funds out of China this week. I was heavily influenced by a presentation by a guy (American) who has lived in China the past 30 years and focuses on financial and political matters. When questioned whether COVID and the effect on exports will damage China heavily, he said not nearly as much as one might think. First, he says that while China lied and covered up egregiously at the outset of the pandemic, he believes the recently reported numbers are pretty solid and that China is way ahead of the U.S. and other nations in getting past this. He also said that China is not nearly as export-dependent as it was just five years ago, and that rising domestic demand will offset the loss of exports.

[Moliere]

That said, I actually bought into two mutual funds out of China this week. I was heavily influenced by a presentation by a guy (American) who has lived in China the past 30 years and focuses on financial and political matters. When questioned whether COVID and the effect on exports will damage China heavily, he said not nearly as much as one might think. First, he says that while China lied and covered up egregiously at the outset of the pandemic, he believes the recently reported numbers are pretty solid and that China is way ahead of the U.S. and other nations in getting past this. He also said that China is not nearly as export-dependent as it was just five years ago, and that rising domestic demand will offset the loss of exports.

If there’s anyone to believe when it comes to predicting markets, it’s a guy who self proclaims to study financial and political matters. Bonus points if the presentation was in PowerPoint and had cool transitions both between and inside the slides.

[myboynoah]

If there’s anyone to believe when it comes to predicting markets, it’s a guy who self proclaims to study financial and political matters. Bonus points if the presentation was in PowerPoint and had cool transitions both between and inside the slides.

lol

[cowboy]

Stocks higher on the jobs report today. If you're scratching your head on the market's strength, it's a function of what lenders call 'dead capital'. Here's how it works:

The Fed tries to increase liquidity by buying securities and putting cash into the economy. In theory, this lowers interest rates, which increases borrowing demand and stimulates the economy. In practice, lending restrictions are so tight as a result of the financial crisis that lenders can make very few loans that survive examiners' scrutiny. Without consumer and business lending, the Fed's cash has no home other than equities and index funds, so investors buy stocks, pushing the market higher despite a struggling economy.

[CardiacCoug]

Should have gone all in on American Airlines.

I have a ton of doctor friends who “got out of the market” way lower than it is now.

Trying to time the market is like a litmus test for egotism.