2011 NBA Draft

[MarkGrace]

you would take knight over biyombo (sp?)?

Yeah, that's a tough one. These relative unknowns that rise around draft time always scare me. I know he's been producing in a pretty decent Euro league, so that's somewhat reassuring. I really want to know this guy's real age, because I'd be much more interested in him if he's 18 than 22.

[MartyFunkhouser]

I actually feel really bad for the Jazz. This is not the draft where you want to have 2 lottery picks. You could try to package the picks and move up, but who else is going to want to lottery picks in this draft. The Jazz should hope that someone falls in love with a player and wants to move up in this draft. At this point, trading the 12th pick in this draft for a pick in the 20-22 range in next years draft may make a lot of sense.

[Jacob]

nbadraft has the Jazz taking Vesely and Jimmer. Now that would suck. I'm not sure what to make of Vesely. I was watching some videos of him the other day -- great athlete with some serious bounce, but I don't know how much of a basketball player he is yet.

I was really digging into the Euro stats yesterday. Looking at current stats in the highest Euro league, in past years, and how past successful euro players performed in Euro league at a young age. Example: Pau Gasol dominated Euroleauge at age 20. Then was an amazing rookie in the NBA at 21. He looked great in his rookie highlight videos. I don't see anything resembling Pau Gasol in any of these 6'11 skinny euros. And while one shouldn't expect then to be as good as Pau, you'd expect something to jump out. But it doesn't. Not in the stats.

Vesely is 21 and is not a star. He plays on a good team and plays lots of minutes (27 mpg) but only scores 9 points and 3.4 boards.

MOTIEJUNAS plays 27 minutes and scores only 10 with 5.4 boards.

Kanter hasn't played in a competitive league in more than a year, and before not playing at Kentucky last year he barely played in any EURO league. The only measureable for him appears to be a great performance in last year's USA vs World U18 game and Biyombo dominated this year. Contrarily, he was outplayed by Valunciunas in the Int'l U18 games a year ago. Kanter, at least, is only 19 this month. However, he looks like a blow-the-rim type player and at 6-10, I doubt he's going to be a good defensive center.

Which leaves us with VALANCIUNAS:
He is only 18 and in his 1st year playing high level EURO leagues. He only played 15 mpg on a team that's not as good as Vesely's team, but he did put up 7.6 and 5.4. Comprable to Vesely and Motiejunas numbers in about half the minutes and he is 2 years younger than either. And he's a real post player.
Looking at his /40 stats, he's blowing away the competition with 20 points and 15 rebounds. He's only getting dunks and putbacks right now, but sports a 91% FT. That shows that he should be able to develop a midrange game and has touch. I like his frame better than the other skinny guys too. Broad shoulders can hold lots more weight.

My conclusion is that DX is right, and Valanciunas is clearly the best prospect out of the group, with Kanter 2nd and Vesley 3rd. If the Jazz end up with Vesely at 6, it will be a tragedy. Better to trade that pick for OJ Mayo or combine it with Millsap to add a quality wing.


Here's to hoping that the ping-pong balls bounce the right way 2 weeks from now.

[Jacob]

At this point, trading the 12th pick in this draft for a pick in the 20-22 range in next years draft may make a lot of sense.

That's where I think you are wrong. This draft is really weak at the top. But I think the rest of the round will be similar to most other drafts. You may not do much worse next year at 20 compared to 12 this year, but you won't likely do better either. OTOH, I don't think you want 3 rookies from last year (Favors, Hayward, Evans), 2 from this year, and 1 more next year. That's half your roster. One of the two picks will be traded. And Evans might not stick around, though he's so likeable.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

I actually feel really bad for the Jazz. This is not the draft where you want to have 2 lottery picks. You could try to package the picks and move up, but who else is going to want to lottery picks in this draft. The Jazz should hope that someone falls in love with a player and wants to move up in this draft. At this point, trading the 12th pick in this draft for a pick in the 20-22 range in next years draft may make a lot of sense.

Imagine being a team like Cleveland. Picking at 2 and 8, you really need that kind of draft to drastically alter your team's future when you are in the position the Cavs are. They don't have Favors, Hayward, Jefferson, Harris, and Millsap to surround two lottery picks.

It obviously could still happen, if they land Williams and then pick right at 8. But it would really suck for the Cavs if the ping pong kicks them out as the 3rd pick instead of 1 or 2.

[MartyFunkhouser]

Imagine being a team like Cleveland. Picking at 2 and 8, you really need that kind of draft to drastically alter your team's future when you are in the position the Cavs are. They don't have Favors, Hayward, Jefferson, Harris, and Millsap to surround two lottery picks.

It obviously could still happen, if they land Williams and then pick right at 8. But it would really suck for the Cavs if the ping pong kicks them out as the 3rd pick instead of 1 or 2.

Bron Bron did a fantastic job of burning that franchise to the ground. You are right, Cleveland is also in a really bad position in this draft especially if they drop out of the top 2.

[Blueintheface]

I don't understand the Florida stigma. How annoying was it to read about scouts sending Ford texts saying "I told you so" after that game? He played the exact same freaking team the year before and dusted their asses. He's allowed to have a off night without people making definitive conclusions out of it for cyring out loud.

Am I reading that correctly? You are defending Jimmer. I stand all amazed.

[MarkGrace]

Am I reading that correctly? You are defending Jimmer. I stand all amazed.

Yeah, there are plenty of things I'm not in love with about him, but I just find that particular rationale to be a bit irritating.

[smokymountainrain]

I was really digging into the Euro stats yesterday. Looking at current stats in the highest Euro league, in past years, and how past successful euro players performed in Euro league at a young age. Example: Pau Gasol dominated Euroleauge at age 20. Then was an amazing rookie in the NBA at 21. He looked great in his rookie highlight videos. I don't see anything resembling Pau Gasol in any of these 6'11 skinny euros. And while one shouldn't expect then to be as good as Pau, you'd expect something to jump out. But it doesn't. Not in the stats.

Vesely is 21 and is not a star. He plays on a good team and plays lots of minutes (27 mpg) but only scores 9 points and 3.4 boards.

MOTIEJUNAS plays 27 minutes and scores only 10 with 5.4 boards.

Kanter hasn't played in a competitive league in more than a year, and before not playing at Kentucky last year he barely played in any EURO league. The only measureable for him appears to be a great performance in last year's USA vs World U18 game and Biyombo dominated this year. Contrarily, he was outplayed by Valunciunas in the Int'l U18 games a year ago. Kanter, at least, is only 19 this month. However, he looks like a blow-the-rim type player and at 6-10, I doubt he's going to be a good defensive center.

Which leaves us with VALANCIUNAS:
He is only 18 and in his 1st year playing high level EURO leagues. He only played 15 mpg on a team that's not as good as Vesely's team, but he did put up 7.6 and 5.4. Comprable to Vesely and Motiejunas numbers in about half the minutes and he is 2 years younger than either. And he's a real post player.
Looking at his /40 stats, he's blowing away the competition with 20 points and 15 rebounds. He's only getting dunks and putbacks right now, but sports a 91% FT. That shows that he should be able to develop a midrange game and has touch. I like his frame better than the other skinny guys too. Broad shoulders can hold lots more weight.

My conclusion is that DX is right, and Valanciunas is clearly the best prospect out of the group, with Kanter 2nd and Vesley 3rd. If the Jazz end up with Vesely at 6, it will be a tragedy. Better to trade that pick for OJ Mayo or combine it with Millsap to add a quality wing.


Here's to hoping that the ping-pong balls bounce the right way 2 weeks from now.

Excellent draft post, Jacob. Thanks for sharing.

[MarkGrace]

Mar 17 Update: Valanciunas is the most highly rated international player on our board. But will he come to the NBA this season? Concerns about a massive buyout could keep him in Europe for a couple more years. Is anyone willing to take the risk high in the lottery?

Ford currently has his stock as "down." Probably related to that buyout.

[Jacob]

I didn't realize Knight was so young. He's 18 till December. He's the age of all the HS seniors this year.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Didn't see it posted anywhere, but Terrence Jones is headed back to Kentucky. Not sure if I would have wanted the Jazz to pick him, but he certainly was a candidate to go above 12 and push someone else down to Utah.

Knight is in the draft for sure, and for some reason Deandre Liggins opted to be a 2nd round pick in this draft.

[MarkGrace]

I didn't realize Knight was so young. He's 18 till December. He's the age of all the HS seniors this year.

Youngest player in the draft.

I'm starting to feel like he's the guy I want.

[BGRTHNUMEGO]

Chad Ford said Leonard's shooting display in Vegas today was very impressive. If he goes into workouts and shoots well he's definitely going in the top 10.

[smokymountainrain]

Chad Ford said Leonard's shooting display in Vegas today was very impressive. If he goes into workouts and shoots well he's definitely going in the top 10.

Vegas? What went on there?