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  • #16
    Originally posted by Color Me Badd Fan View Post
    Did anyone read UtesRus's long post from CB, I think it was posted this morning. It was actually quite interesting.

    He mentioned that TCU was a possibility. Frankly, I don't buy that. TCU is wrong on so many levels and I can't see either the Texas schools or any of the other schools being on board with TCU. The Texas legislature has only so much influence and most of that is wrapped up in Texas, aTm and Texas Tech.

    He also mentioned that Chip Brown was being used by someone inside the Texas athletic department, I'll definitely buy that.

    He commented on Arkansas leaving the SEC and joining the Big 12. Basically his argument was that Arkansas is in no man's land out in the SEC West and is isolated from its former recruiting grounds: Texas. I understand this and in the short term it would make a lot of sense for Arkansas to leave the SEC so it could reestablish connections in Texas, but the Arkansas people have got to be thinking that a move to the Big 12 would just make them Texas's you know what. The next time Texas wants something, all it has to do is make overtures to the Big 10 or Pac 10. It makes for an incredibly unstable situation when compared to what it has in the SEC.

    You have a link by chance? I gave up on reading CB a long time ago. The signal to noise ratio is very low on that board.
    "If there is one thing I am, it's always right." -Ted Nugent.
    "I honestly believe saying someone is a smart lawyer is damning with faint praise. The smartest people become engineers and scientists." -SU.
    "Yet I still see wisdom in that which Uncle Ted posts." -creek.
    GIVE 'EM HELL, BRIGHAM!

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by Ted Nugent View Post
      You have a link by chance? I gave up on reading CB a long time ago. The signal to noise ratio is very low on that board.
      http://www.cougarboard.com/noframes/...tml?id=5625817


      Pasted for your convenience,

      Originally posted by UtesRus
      Despite being incorrectly called a racist by one of you (Misogynist, maybe, racist not so), I'm going to throw you guys a bone to gnaw on instead of your own. I'm not a total jerk face and regardless of the number of drunken or caffeinated posts I have put on this, and other message board, about my deep-seeded and disturbing hatred for you people's football team and certain 'fans', I am not a mean human being and have great empathy for your school. And since I actually like a lot of Cougar fans, I'm going to post what I know from casual conversations I've had the past couple of days from my Big-12 connections, trusted sources, and friends I have in media.

      My disclaimer: First, the question as to whom my sources are and the validity of my information. As I had posted on the Utah board, my sources are mainly people I do business with in Texas. Specifically, I buy media from a couple of Big-12 schools and one Pac-10 school. I will leave it at that. They gave me information that I put on our board and they were correct from the very beginning. Because local media hacks reads message boards, and I don't want anyone fired, I'm not going to disclose names, their addresses, phone numbers, and emails, but if you care to know more, here's a hint: http://www.imgcollege.com/

      As for the accuracy of what has transpired/my information, and what/why I'm posting, don't shoot the messenger, I'm merely relaying the bits and pieces of what I've learned in the past 5 months, and to date. As with anything you read on the InterWeb ingest it with a heatlhy serving of salt and don't bet the house on it. Let's put it this way, I've been mocked and basically been called every low-life name by fans of my own school because last week Chip tweeted something that's exactly opposite of what I posted - but at the end of the day, I was vindicated. Take that for what it's worth.

      Why am I posting this stuff?

      I'm not getting your hopes up to be mean-spirited, rather, the opposite, I'm being nice and giving you the info I have, because I've had a lot of very nice Cougars congratulate me this past week, and were genuinely happy for the Utes. Despite the idiots in your fanbase who've made me question the definition of "insanity", there are many of you in here that are cool; hence, this is for you.

      So curl up..this is a long one.

      Background on Texas and the expansion hoo-haa.

      In order for some of you to understand the dynamics of expansion (as it relates to Texas) and how BYU would fit in, you will need to educate yourself on what Texas has been attempting to do in the past two years. Here's a nice link to tell you all about how IMG is involved with all of this: http://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/article/59883

      Texas hired IMG back in 08' to help explore a t.v. deal (and manage their brand assets) for them because the Horns want to extend the life of their inventory beyond the football and basketball seasons. The problem for collegiate athletics is that they're encumbered with an archiac form of advertising revenue model which is mostly done on a multi-year locked price committment from buyers. On average you pay about $150,000 annually for three years, and for that you get so 'x' number season tickets, 'x' number of advertisements in the stadium, radio, and t.v. broadcasts, concession, game guide, etc.

      Unlike traditional ad-buying (where you buy blocks of time for x-price) collegiate purchasing is more geared towards "sponsorship", since you've got limited exposure due to the fact that you're tied to football and basketball season. For example, Bank of America pays over $1 million dollars a year to UT be their official sponsor and receives a media package that's heavily football and basketball season reliant. However, because B of A has to do a tremendous amount of self-promotion, since they're only really visible during football games to the much same 80,000 people during games, and they only have limited time reach for the media they get from this sponsorship, UT can't get more from BofA.

      I'm assuming that the Big-10 allocates a certain percentage of inventory to their member schools that can be packaged up and sold to the school's sponsors on year-round basis. This is a very powerful money-maker since now the revenue can be generated year-round, versus just 6-months out of the year. So Texas understands the power of having not only a built-in residual revenue in subscribers, who will buy the network with basic cable service (5 million potential subscribers), but will also have up to 2,500 hours of programming available for sale (I don't know what they per hour rev model, but it can fetch a nice chunk of change).

      With a Longhorn Network, I've been told, that Texas could potentially make an extra $25 to $30 million annually off of their brand in Texas alone, possibly moving them in to the $200 million per year earnings level - ridonkolous I know. IMG has run all of the business cases and metrics on this, they've done market research, and have the infrastructure to not only deliver clients to buy Texas' inventory, but also to expand the reach on a national level - this IMG we're talking about after all. So it didn't take a rocket scientist to see that Texas may have been playing two-step with Larry Scott when this all started, which my source's text said as much; "Larry's being played".

      Texas knew that changes would be coming this year because they, and IMG, have been working closely with Fox, ESPN, etc. These big schools are pretty dialed when it comes to their t.v. network deals and know what the 'par-value' is of their product. I don't have any details of what's been going on with the Time-Warner cable negotiations, but I think it was a slow go because this network should have been out by now. Anyway, the point is that Texas knew that the Pac-10 will need to poach some schools from either the MWC, WAC, or Big-12 to get a new t.v. deal worth its salt. It doesn't take a brain surgeon to realize how many schools the Pac-10 could pick-up, so the basic math was 12 or 16 (14 doesn't work because you get an odd number per division).

      Goodbye Colorado.

      Colorado has been the red-headed step child of the Big-12 since they joined, and if it weren't for the fact that the incoming Regents couldn't vote to accept the previous Pac-10 invite, they wouldn't be in the Big-12 in the first place. Texas (aka Big-12) was fine with losing Colorado. They sucked and really didn't bring any value to the Big-12 North except constant complaining. Nebraska on the other hand was another story. The Big-10, being the Big-10 has been chasing down Texas for a good part of year, yes, a year. Through exploratory contact for television, the Big-10 has had a lot of discussion with Texas. Texas, being Texas, always listened and hence began (in earnest) the Big-10 discussion of adding that missing 12th team they wanted for a championship game. So the expansion game starts.

      The Game Starts.

      Notre Dame has always been the 'Belle of the Ball' and the twinkle in the Big-10's eye, and the Big-10's swan songs have always ended in a dead swooning swan. No go, for the Domers. However, this time around, the Big-10 figured that they'll use the newfound Hook em' leverage (16 school super-conference) to see if ND would budge. So the targeting started for the Big-10 in this order (Texas, A&M, Oklahoma, Nebraska, ND). Not to be left out of the conversation (my speculation), I think Scott and Delaney started coordinating (sooner than later) as how to attack, and carve up, the Big-12 when it became 'clear' that Texas MAY move. CAA more than likely advised Scott as to what the monetary value was at stake for Texas if they chose the Pac-16, these guys know everything there is to know about each other, and Scott probably knew what he was swinging at from the get go.

      By Spring all of this was in full bloom with ADs, Presidents, Chancellors, and legal teams reading over contracts and playing out different scenarios. At this point, both Utah and BYU have contacted, or been in contact, with the Big-12 and Pac-10 as to how the landscape would play out. Utah, being a natural target for the Pac-10 expansion pretty much gave a verbal, or MOU, to the Pac-10 that we're in - if/when the time comes. At this point the Big-10's white elephant was Notre Dame and the Pac-10's white whale was Texas - and her sisters. And before some of you yahoos in here throw your ADs and president under the bus for not "doing enough" - well trust me when I say that BYU is was/is very well in the conversation.

      Chancellors and Presidents had backroom discussions and the whole Big-12 Missile Crisis erupted in a giant cluster when BeBee decided to go on the offensive and ask for blood brother pacts during the Big-12 meetings. As I was told, I think Texas' hand was drawn out by the Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, which then prompted Texas to throw Nebraska and A&M under the bus (A&M has been talking to Mike Silve since 09'). The Big-12 meeting was no KC and the Sunshine Band, more like Oasis meets As the World Turns drama-ology.

      Then Chip Brown happened.

      The gist that I got was that the leak (aka source) for Chip Brown is an AA in the AD's office that gave Chip Brown and Geoff Ketchum statements over text messages. From there Orangebloods basically leaked EVERYTHING that became dogma for the next two weeks. Because most people don't understand how collegiate athletics works in Texas, they took the "Big 12 South to the Surf-n-Turf" league as prophecy revealed. However, the purpose (IMO), was probably to put another string in play with the Pac-10 (legitimate or not) in order to maximize the negotiation position for Texas, if the Big-12 was really going to collapse, or force t.v. to concede to what Texas (and her sisters) wants: more money and allow that cash to remain in place without Nebraska and Colorado. Well most of you know how this all played out and so fast forward to today.

      What will happen next?

      So what you can expect in the coming weeks/months is this: "Empire Strikes Back" - aka, The Big Texas Conference (BTC) will be replacing Nebraska and Colorado, that's what. Remember this 'revenge' theme with the Big-12.

      Expansion will happen.

      The Big-12.10 needs to get two more teams. Despite BeBee's and Chip's statements (they're about as believable as Baghdad Bob at this point), the BCS is quietly mandating a championship game for each BCS conference so that singing Senator from Utah will shut up already about a playoff. The Pac-10 and the Big-10 didn't go to all of this trouble of getting 12 teams just so that they can generate extra dollars, they did it because the judges of the BCS beauty pageant says this is what you have to do to get a ribbon - and they can make extra change.

      Right now, Arkansas IS a target. You'll hear a bunch of talking heads say that Arkansas will never leave the SEC, blah, blah, because of all of the money they get from t.v. Well money is important, but being relevant and possibly competing for a BCS berth and hooking back up with your traditional rivals are more so. Arkansas is no-man's land SEC and has a more difficult schedule than the NFC West. With a move to the Big-12 North, they will have a gliders path to the Big-12 Championship Game - which in turn will help their program make more money and be relevant. And remember, the Big-12 has an axe to grind with Mike Silve right now and there would be nothing better than to do something he couldn't do, steal a school.

      Who else and what about the UT/OU whining about the Championship Game TRAP?

      Well, this is where it gets very interesting. The Big-12 can't afford to go in to 2011 without a championship game. There's an aura of prestige, legitimacy, and revenue stream associated with that, so they'll have to add two teams. Despite the fact that a championship game jeopardizes the path to a BCS-shampionship game for either Texas or Oklahoma (banner reads: Mack Brown You Knew the Rules), they need to keep on having it. But the flip-side is that this is Texas' world now and if television agrees, then you never know. Once again, the fate of a Utah football team is in Texas' hands.

      Why BYU?

      I would not put it past the Big-12 to go after BYU and dilute the Utah t.v. market as a form revenge against the Pac-12. The problem for BYU right now are four-fold: 1) Arkansas, 2) The Ghost of Ann Richards, 3) Sunday Play, and 4) SBC vs. LDS. The good news is that at the end of the day, dead presidents is what these fine folks worship, so that's why BYU is in these conversations. BYU brings a fat check with them because your stadium is close to par for gate earnings with most of the schools, the brand fits well with the Big-12 culture, and you beat Oklahoma in Dallas which made all Texans giddy (yeah that was a feather in your cap).

      From a network value perspective, of all of the schools in consideration, the BYU asset is the next best piece to be had in the region. BYU would mesh well with the remaining 4 Big North school and would compete rather well. The reality POSITIVE right now for BYU is that from an economic standpoint, the value-add BYU brings SHOULD be worth more than the current "vapor" pie. BUT, it will be determined by Fox and if they will give up more cash because you increase to a different market/s that could add subscriptions you didn't have now - including a national fan base.

      Another 'y' factor, that I chatted about was that we can see BYU/LDS Church really extending out the red carpet as far as the Big-12 television network is concerned by really promoting it within their memberhship. There are 6.5 million LDS members in the U.S., so that's a lot of potential households that the Big-12 Network could tap in to that could increase subscription revenue. The question is though, will the LDS Church allow that kind of Big-12 promotional pandering from their pulpit just so BYU can be in the BCS?
      Continued....

      Comment


      • #18
        the rest

        Originally posted by UtesRus
        The Utah/BYU block really was what the Big-12 should have shot for, however, because Utah already signed on with the Pac-10, this was not something they could pull off because by the time cards were laid out on the table, it was too late for the Big-12. Hence, BeBee fell asleep at the wheel and didn't realize it until it was ALMOST too late. Don't expect him to make the same mistake again.

        Anyway, as I've heard it the Big-12 will be meeting to hash out next steps in the next coming weeks, now that "Expansionpalooza" has passed and the Big-12 survived Hurricane Scott, they're going to take a breath and figure out their next moves. I doubt that you'll hear or read about much because there's no need to leverage media (Chip) right now. The Big-12's position is already set and they can act in one or two ways; stay as is, or replace two (ironic that it's the same as the Pac's). So guess where it's bouncing? There will be quiet overtures and conference calls with Arkansas and all of the targeted schools - and as I've read here, there's probably some MOU being put in place to lock up BYU. Ofcourse, I don't know who else would come after BYU, but in today's wonky world of collegiate athletics, there's a lot of what-ifs that become reality.

        I give BYU a 70% chance of a Big-12 invite IF the Big-12 decides to expand. That expansion percentage is about 60% for me because I really don't know how the REAL television deal will play out. They will keep mum on the inner workings of the deal and who the target schools are because they'll probably work through the political details FIRST before going public. Texans don't like to do their laundry in public and the last go-around was way too public. Here's the list of target schools for the Big-12 North replacements, in this order, if they decide to expand.

        - Arkansas/TCU
        - TCU/BYU
        - TCU/Louisville

        And for those of you who will argue about TCU, let's just say it's political.

        Good luck to ya'll.

        Sorry for the long post.

        Comment


        • #19
          For all you Pony Express fans, Craig James thinks TCU and Arkansas should round out the Big-12:

          http://www.star-telegram.com/2010/06...a-12-team.html

          More Houston to Big-12 chatter:

          http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/...html?+Texas%29

          I'm becoming less and less confident that the Big-12 will even consider BYU if they expand back to 12 schools. BYU was at least mentioned in conversations about PAC-10 expansion, even though everyone knew they wouldn't be included. BYU isn't even in the discussion with the Big-12. Outside of hopeful BYU fans, I haven't heard or read anything about it.

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by USU Coug View Post
            For all you Pony Express fans, Craig James thinks TCU and Arkansas should round out the Big-12:

            http://www.star-telegram.com/2010/06...a-12-team.html
            The Star-Telegram is a Ft. Worth paper. Therefore, they are going to publish any opinion about TCU joining the Big-12-2.

            I just can't see TCU joining the Big-12-2. They only have about 75,000 living alumni. They are very loyal to their alma mater but the average attendance for their home football games is only 38,187. If TCU is actually being considered then, like UtesRus said, it's political.


            Originally posted by USU Coug View Post
            More Houston to Big-12 chatter:

            http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/...html?+Texas%29

            I'm becoming less and less confident that the Big-12 will even consider BYU if they expand back to 12 schools. BYU was at least mentioned in conversations about PAC-10 expansion, even though everyone knew they wouldn't be included. BYU isn't even in the discussion with the Big-12. Outside of hopeful BYU fans, I haven't heard or read anything about it.
            The Houston Chronicle (chron.com), of course, has an UH bias.

            Actually there is a lot of talk about BYU on the horn boards I follow and most of the comments are very positive. Anyone that beats OU is a friend of UT.
            "If there is one thing I am, it's always right." -Ted Nugent.
            "I honestly believe saying someone is a smart lawyer is damning with faint praise. The smartest people become engineers and scientists." -SU.
            "Yet I still see wisdom in that which Uncle Ted posts." -creek.
            GIVE 'EM HELL, BRIGHAM!

            Comment


            • #21
              BYU's chip brown tweeter that Holmoe flew to Dallas last Friday.....

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by LiveCoug View Post
                BYU's chip brown tweeter that Holmoe flew to Dallas last Friday.....
                Who is BYU's Chip Brown? Gurney?
                Get confident, stupid
                -landpoke

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by HuskyFreeNorthwest View Post
                  Who is BYU's Chip Brown? Gurney?
                  Yeah. It's Gurney.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by LiveCoug View Post
                    Yeah. It's Gurney.
                    He has a twitter? I looked last week and couldn't find it.
                    Get confident, stupid
                    -landpoke

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      New account. Could be a fake but I doubt it.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        He posted the same thing on TBS. He also just tweeted that it is rumored that Holmoe is still in Dallas. He's trying to confirm this.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Can someone post the Twitter address?

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            http://twitter.com/GurneyTBS

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Shaka View Post
                              He posted the same thing on TBS. He also just tweeted that it is rumored that Holmoe is still in Dallas. He's trying to confirm this.
                              Maybe he is in Fort Worth meeting with TCU officials or something. I think the Big-12 is headquartered just outside of Dallas. The pessimist in me won't let news like this get my hopes up.
                              Last edited by USUC; 06-21-2010, 08:51 PM.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Shaka View Post
                                Thanks Shaka!

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