Retail Beef Outlook

[PaloAltoCougar]

Thank you for taking the time to post that. It's scary to think about how important rain in the Midwest is to all of us.

Yes, cowboy's explanation was great--certainly with great clarity than other things I've read about how things are expected to unfold in the coming months. I really wish ethanol weren't the priority that it is.

[TripletDaddy]

That is really interesting. Best of luck finalizing your feed for the upcoming winter.

As a frequent meat buyer, I haven't noticed much difference in pricing at the store. Has anyone else seen prices fluctuate much?

[cowboy]

I'm posting this on both boards, since some of our Utah friends have probably left for good. This will be a strange year for the beef market. We have super low inventories of live cattle, but they are killing at much heavier weights. Demand has actually held up in the face of higher prices, but there is a lot of uncertainty about exports, and supply disruptions.

Because of the uncertainty, I'm suggesting that now is a good time to stock up on beef for the summer grilling season. Slaughter weights have been unusually high for this time of year, and the result is a seasonally high supply. We're starting to see some features and discounts at the retail level, which should continue for the next couple of weeks. Beyond that, all meat prices may spike as a result of sequestration. Under the rules of sequestration, the USDA will have to furlough meat inspectors for 22 days, creating a bottleneck in the supply chain, and a subsequent shortage of all types of meat. Meat processing plants have to have a USDA inspector to grade all the meat that goes through the plant, and without them, there is no meat. Choice beef set an all-time high retail price in January before this small glut hit the markets. My advice is to take advantage of the short-term supply glut and stock up the freezers, particularly with the choice cuts like steaks and rib roasts, as I predict the shortage will have a greater impact on graded beef than it will on hamburger.

Another big supply surge is likely to hit in July, so I think prices could be lower this summer, but you'll want to have something in the freezer just in case we don't have enough inspectors to keep up with demand. If that happens, the high prices will only get higher, and they'll stay there through fall. The cattle industry contracted again this year, which means per capita supply is lower and prices for choice beef are likely to be higher. Hamburger and other select meat supplies will be helped by imports from Mexico and Australia, but their prices will still be sympathetic followers of choice cuts as people move to cheaper cuts and push those prices higher as well.

[YOhio]

Well done, cowboy. Thanks for posting.

[PaloAltoCougar]

Thanks, cowboy. It's back to Costco for us. We were there last Friday and they had a lot of prime cuts out, although not at particularly low prices. I was about to pass on a pallet of prime sirloin (a cut I've grown greater respect for of late), but then I asked myself the guiding question whenever meat is involved, "What Would cowboy Do?" Into the cart it went, and we've been enjoying some tasty beef. Now I've got to head back for more.

[Lost Student]

Well done, cowboy. Thanks for posting.

Medium rare, cowboy. Thanks for posting.

[thesaint258]

I should just buy a separate meat freezer...

[Clark Addison]

Does anyone else find is a little suspicious that all of Cowboy's reports seem to be able to be boiled down to "Y'all better go out and buy a lot of beef!"

[FN Phat]

[FN Phat]

How long is it advisable to keep beef in the freezer? I am thinking about snatching up a case of tri-tips (maybe 2), a case of steaks and a case of briskets. I want to make sure that I'll have enough time to consume it all before it goes bad.

[PaloAltoCougar]

How long is it advisable to keep beef in the freezer? I am thinking about snatching up a case of tri-tips (maybe 2), a case of steaks and a case of briskets. I want to make sure that I'll have enough time to consume it all before it goes bad.

I'm sure it's at least three weeks, so you'll be fine.

[Pelado]

How long is it advisable to keep beef in the freezer? I am thinking about snatching up a case of tri-tips (maybe 2), a case of steaks and a case of briskets. I want to make sure that I'll have enough time to consume it all before it goes bad.

Depends on the freezer, but you should be fine for at least 6 months.

[Drunk Tank]

How long is it advisable to keep beef in the freezer? I am thinking about snatching up a case of tri-tips (maybe 2), a case of steaks and a case of briskets. I want to make sure that I'll have enough time to consume it all before it goes bad.

Do yourself a favor and get a vacuum sealer if you dont already have one. You can portion the meat into what you will use per meal and properly vacuum packed meat can stay in the freezer 1-3 years. However, after 1 year, the quality begins to deteriorate. Once thawed, never re-freeze.

[FN Phat]

Great advice on the portions. Good reason to knock the dust off of the vacuum sealer!

[eldiente]

As Evan slack would say,"higher, higher,higher"