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  • Retail Beef Outlook

    If you are planning to include beef on the menu when you grill this summer (ie, if you aren't a commie,) then this thread is intended to offer periodic price outlooks. We want you to get good deals.

    Beef is really expensive now, and I wouldn't stock up at the moment. We had a huge corn crop last year, but the quality of the corn was really poor, and nobody realized it until it was too late to price it into the market. As a result, gains were smaller and slower, and slaughter weights have been lighter, which means less beef available than was anticipated.

    Retailers are holding off, waiting for prices to come down and just buying what they need for the week instead of stocking up. Prices should begin to break by mid May. Hold off to stock up until June or July. Last year, retail beef dropped 3% from April to July. If fundamentals change, then I'll try to post a heads up before a price increase hits the retailers.

    Happy grilling.
    sigpic
    "Outlined against a blue, gray
    October sky the Four Horsemen rode again"
    Grantland Rice, 1924

  • #2
    Originally posted by cowboy View Post
    If you are planning to include beef on the menu when you grill this summer (ie, if you aren't a commie,) then this thread is intended to offer periodic price outlooks. We want you to get good deals.

    Beef is really expensive now, and I wouldn't stock up at the moment. We had a huge corn crop last year, but the quality of the corn was really poor, and nobody realized it until it was too late to price it into the market. As a result, gains were smaller and slower, and slaughter weights have been lighter, which means less beef available than was anticipated.

    Retailers are holding off, waiting for prices to come down and just buying what they need for the week instead of stocking up. Prices should begin to break by mid May. Hold off to stock up until June or July. Last year, retail beef dropped 3% from April to July. If fundamentals change, then I'll try to post a heads up before a price increase hits the retailers.

    Happy grilling.
    Unrelated question. What is the primary feed of WY cattle? Are they mostly fed corn?

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    • #3
      Yeah, I watched Food, Inc and it made me want to stick to grass-fed beef, which is, incidentally, impossible to find in the Jackson-metro area. Therefore, I have not had beef in more than a month, (about how long its been since I watched that movie).

      Also, have you seen it? I'd love to hear your thoughts.
      What's to explain? It's a bunch of people, most of whom you've never met, who are just as likely to be homicidal maniacs as they are to be normal everyday people, with whom you share the minutiae of your everyday life. It's totally normal, and everyone would understand.
      -Teenage Dirtbag

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      • #4
        cowboy, for those that don't "stock up" on beef, will the impending price fluctuations be remarkable? we tend to just buy our beef week to week and eat it as we go. Will we likely see anything noticeable in price trending? My guess is no, but I have no real clue.
        Fitter. Happier. More Productive.

        sigpic

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        • #5
          Originally posted by beefytee View Post
          Unrelated question. What is the primary feed of WY cattle? Are they mostly fed corn?
          There aren't many feedlots here in Wyoming but the feedlots that are here feed corn.
          sigpic
          "Outlined against a blue, gray
          October sky the Four Horsemen rode again"
          Grantland Rice, 1924

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          • #6
            Originally posted by marsupial View Post
            Yeah, I watched Food, Inc and it made me want to stick to grass-fed beef, which is, incidentally, impossible to find in the Jackson-metro area. Therefore, I have not had beef in more than a month, (about how long its been since I watched that movie).

            Also, have you seen it? I'd love to hear your thoughts.
            Funny you mention this. I also wondered what views Cowboy has of that movie as I watched.
            A man who views the world the same at fifty as he did at twenty has wasted thirty years of his life. - Mohammad Ali

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            • #7
              One of the reasons I like this board. Where else am I going to get insight like this. I'm serious.
              "It's devastating, because we lost to a team that's not even in the Pac-12. To lose to Utah State is horrible." - John White IV

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              • #8
                Originally posted by TripletDaddy View Post
                cowboy, for those that don't "stock up" on beef, will the impending price fluctuations be remarkable? we tend to just buy our beef week to week and eat it as we go. Will we likely see anything noticeable in price trending? My guess is no, but I have no real clue.
                I don't expect the fluctuations to be huge - maybe $1 or $2 per lb. either way for ribs and loins (the good steaks) and $.50 per lb on hamburger.

                Originally posted by marsupial View Post
                Yeah, I watched Food, Inc and it made me want to stick to grass-fed beef, which is, incidentally, impossible to find in the Jackson-metro area. Therefore, I have not had beef in more than a month, (about how long its been since I watched that movie).

                Also, have you seen it? I'd love to hear your thoughts.
                As you probably suspected, I think that movie is bullcrap. Technology is always resisted by certain people, and technology in agriculture is no exception. The fact of the matter is that food is safer and more nutritious coming off the farm than it has ever been.

                I don't have time to address the specifics of the movie, but I'll say that there is not a bigger success story in our nation's history than American agriculture. We produce more food on less real estate than ever before and people spend less of their disposable income on food in this country than in any country in the world. The reason for this is the technological advances we have made.

                Through genetic selection, both natural and engineered, our yields have outpaced the growth in our population. I always marvel at the fact that people are okay with us selecting plants that are naturally disease resistant but they resist plants that have disease resistant genes spliced into their DNA. It's the same process - the first just takes longer.

                While genetic advances have been striking, the quality of the product has improved as well. Chicken, beef, and pork have all become more uniform, and a tremendous amount of research has been done to develop grain varieties that meet specific uses better. Most importantly, the nutrition and safety of these foods has stayed the same at worst and improved at best.

                Wackos use scare tactics. That's a given in any arena and it's a given here. There will always be someone who is willing to testify that food is unsafe, and there will always be some farm somewhere that abuses animals, and there will always be someone who is willing to use these anecdotes to scare people. Crap, all of it.

                Beef cattle spend the vast majority of their lives in a pasture, and even corn-fed steers will only spend 3 to 6 months in a feedlot. Feedlots aren't nasty, and nothing is abused there; the healthier the animal, the faster it gains, and the more money the owner makes. Don't waster your time on grass fed, Sup. Corn fed tastes better, and it was probably treated more humanely because it was probably grown by someone who cared about the animal's health.

                <end rant for now>
                sigpic
                "Outlined against a blue, gray
                October sky the Four Horsemen rode again"
                Grantland Rice, 1924

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                • #9
                  I don't eat enough meat to worry about it, but I do like to make money.

                  Are you saying I should short meat futures. I don't do futures, so are there meat futures or would it be cattle futures I would short.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by byu71 View Post
                    I don't eat enough meat to worry about it, but I do like to make money.

                    Are you saying I should short meat futures. I don't do futures, so are there meat futures or would it be cattle futures I would short.
                    You could probably short feeder cattle, but be careful. August feeders could break $6 to the upside if this is not the seasonal top that I believe it to be.

                    If you go short, I suggest May puts at least $2 in the money. This limits your downside, minimizes the time value you have to fork over, and gets you out of the trade before growing season volatility hits the corn market.
                    sigpic
                    "Outlined against a blue, gray
                    October sky the Four Horsemen rode again"
                    Grantland Rice, 1924

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by marsupial View Post
                      Yeah, I watched Food, Inc and it made me want to stick to grass-fed beef, which is, incidentally, impossible to find in the Jackson-metro area. Therefore, I have not had beef in more than a month, (about how long its been since I watched that movie).

                      Also, have you seen it? I'd love to hear your thoughts.
                      I saw it too. I thought it was very clever and at the same time made me sick. I knew about feed lots and that reduced my beef consumption (sorry cowboy) this put me to an almost vegetarian state. It is worth noting that corn feed is standard for nearly all meat products, poultry included. I feel better about answering the WoW question in my temple recommend interview .
                      Dio perdona tante cose per un’opera di misericordia
                      God forgives many things for an act of mercy
                      Alessandro Manzoni

                      Knock it off. This board has enough problems without a dose of middle-age lechery.

                      pelagius

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by byu71 View Post
                        I don't eat enough meat to worry about it, but I do like to make money.









                        "Yeah, but never trust a Ph.D who has an MBA as well. The PhD symbolizes intelligence and discipline. The MBA symbolizes lust for power." -- Katy Lied

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by pellegrino View Post
                          I saw it too. I thought it was very clever and at the same time made me sick. I knew about feed lots and that reduced my beef consumption (sorry cowboy) this put me to an almost vegetarian state. It is worth noting that corn feed is standard for nearly all meat products, poultry included. I feel better about answering the WoW question in my temple recommend interview .
                          Cowboy's friends:
                          Pellegrino
                          Marsupial
                          Rest of the Board

                          Seriously, y'all need to get out in the country more if this movie affected you.
                          sigpic
                          "Outlined against a blue, gray
                          October sky the Four Horsemen rode again"
                          Grantland Rice, 1924

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by kccougar View Post
                            One of the reasons I like this board. Where else am I going to get insight like this. I'm serious.
                            "Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance and the gospel of envy; its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery." - Winston Churchill


                            "I only know what I hear on the news." - Dear Leader

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by cowboy View Post
                              You could probably short feeder cattle, but be careful. August feeders could break $6 to the upside if this is not the seasonal top that I believe it to be.

                              If you go short, I suggest May puts at least $2 in the money. This limits your downside, minimizes the time value you have to fork over, and gets you out of the trade before growing season volatility hits the corn market.
                              Perhaps you could advise me when to get in and out and I would give you 10% of what we make and I will suffer the loss if we lose. I will have to check with the big wigs to see if they will even allow me to do that. We are regulated up the wazzoo. If I can, I will PM you.

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