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Is China the next Enron?

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  • #16
    Originally posted by SeattleUte View Post
    I think China is overrated. It wouldn't surprise me if it went into a Japan-style multi-decade economic swoon. But I really hope not. I can't think of anything scarier than a hungry, desperate, wretched China.
    Overrated in what sense? As a location for investment? As a global superpower? I'm interested in your thoughts.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by YOhio View Post
      Overrated in what sense? As a location for investment? As a global superpower? I'm interested in your thoughts.
      Well the rest of are not, send him a PM SU! Sorry!
      Do Your Damnedest In An Ostentatious Manner All The Time!
      -General George S. Patton

      I'm choosing to mostly ignore your fatuity here and instead overwhelm you with so much data that you'll maybe, just maybe, realize that you have reams to read on this subject before you can contribute meaningfully to any conversation on this topic.
      -DOCTOR Wuap

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Goatnapper'96 View Post
        Well the rest of are not, send him a PM SU! Sorry!
        Speak for yourself. What a clodhopper.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by YOhio View Post
          Overrated in what sense? As a location for investment? As a global superpower? I'm interested in your thoughts.
          It's just a feeling. I think that they will not be truly capitalist and market driven until they get the human rights thing right. It's hard to tell what is the chicken and what is the egg in this respect. But in my opinion markets lead to tolerance and appreciation for human rights. Whatever, they are too authoritarian. Believe me, I want China to succeed. I think we'll all be better off if it does, not to mention a billion Chinese. But the country has some very old bad habits. Also, rarely does a phenomenon like China meet expectations. They're already experiencing some economic struggles. Take it for what it's worth. I'm not an old China hand like you are.
          When a true genius appears, you can know him by this sign: that all the dunces are in a confederacy against him.

          --Jonathan Swift

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          • #20
            Originally posted by SeattleUte View Post
            It's just a feeling. I think that they will not be truly capitalist and market driven until they get the human rights thing right. It's hard to tell what is the chicken and what is the egg in this respect. But in my opinion markets lead to tolerance and appreciation for human rights. Whatever, they are too authoritarian. Believe me, I want China to succeed. I think we'll all be better off if it does, not to mention a billion Chinese. But the country has some very old bad habits. Also, rarely does a phenomenon like China meet expectations. They're already experiencing some economic struggles. Take it for what it's worth. I'm not an old China hand like you are.
            Well, there you go. It's a feeling.

            I'm no economist, but I see two differences between Japan and China that should play a factor in keeping China from experiencing an economic swoon similar to what Japan has been suffering since the 1990s.

            1) China still has significant resources to exploit (in particular, people)
            2) China is better positioned to make necessary structural economic changes when needed. Japan swooned, but was so structurally rigid that it refused to make needed reforms that could have facilitated a recovery. China's capitalism is still young and has yet to build such rigidity, plus they seem less inclined to maintain such in the face of an economic downturn. If things sour, I see the Chinese taking action to get things back on course, even though there will be short term pain.

            Now I'll let YO and other China hands tell me I'm full of it.
            Give 'em Hell, Cougars!!!

            For all this His anger is not turned away, but His hand is stretched out still.

            Not long ago an obituary appeared in the Salt Lake Tribune that said the recently departed had "died doing what he enjoyed most—watching BYU lose."

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            • #21
              Originally posted by SeattleUte View Post
              I think China is overrated. It wouldn't surprise me if it went into a Japan-style multi-decade economic swoon. But I really hope not. I can't think of anything scarier than a hungry, desperate, wretched China.
              Interesting article making a similar point.

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              • #22
                The next Enron could pass up the USA this year...

                China poised to pass US as world’s leading economic power this year
                The US is on the brink of losing its status as the world’s largest economy, and is likely to slip behind China this year, sooner than widely anticipated, according to the world’s leading statistical agencies.

                The US has been the global leader since overtaking the UK in 1872. Most economists previously thought China would pull ahead in 2019.
                […]
                http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d79ff...44feabdc0.html


                USA#2!
                "If there is one thing I am, it's always right." -Ted Nugent.
                "I honestly believe saying someone is a smart lawyer is damning with faint praise. The smartest people become engineers and scientists." -SU.
                "Yet I still see wisdom in that which Uncle Ted posts." -creek.
                GIVE 'EM HELL, BRIGHAM!

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Uncle Ted View Post
                  The next Enron could pass up the USA this year...


                  Maybe some additional government regulations and a stronger and more powerful EPA will help us stay ahead of China. Of course I think the new wave thinking in the US is, why do we care if we are number 1. We get a trophy whether we finish first or last anyway.

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                  • #24
                    From a numbers/size perspective, it seems like the top spot is China's to take. Per capita GDP is still quite disparate, I assume.
                    "What are you prepared to do?" - Jimmy Malone

                    "What choice?" - Abe Petrovsky

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                    • #25
                      Rather than start a new thread, I'll simply add on here... I've been fascinated by China's Belt Road Initiative. As Trump pursues his America First and anti-trade policies, China is taking a very different approach, and its Belt Road Initiative (BRI) is very high risk. But the BRI is also daring and could accelerate the time when China finally supplants the U.S. as THE dominant economic superpower. Here's a brief video explaining what the BRI is (think The New Deal times a thousand). If you're unfamiliar with the BRI, you've got to watch this. All this could prove to be a bust (Enron!), but I think this may pay huge dividends and we'll look back on current U.S. policy and wonder what we were thinking...

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Joe Public View Post
                        From a numbers/size perspective, it seems like the top spot is China's to take. Per capita GDP is still quite disparate, I assume.
                        where tf has joe public been
                        Te Occidere Possunt Sed Te Edere Non Possunt Nefas Est.

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                        • #27
                          Macro Polo is a great follow for those interested in data about China.

                          https://twitter.com/MacroPoloChina

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                          • #28
                            Pretty amazing read by Nicholas Kristof on his witness of the Tiananmen massacre.

                            https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/01/o...=tw-nytopinion

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                            • #29


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                              • #30
                                Originally posted by YOhio View Post
                                Pretty amazing read by Nicholas Kristof on his witness of the Tiananmen massacre.

                                https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/01/o...=tw-nytopinion
                                Thanks for posting that.

                                Chinese scholars often quote the writer Lu Xun after an earlier massacre: “Lies written in ink cannot disguise facts written in blood.”
                                "I think it was King Benjamin who said 'you sorry ass shitbags who have no skills that the market values also have an obligation to have the attitude that if one day you do in fact win the PowerBall Lottery that you will then impart of your substance to those without.'"
                                - Goatnapper'96

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