Utah 2009 Prediction Contest: Week #1 Results

[pelagius]

Here are the current standing for the Utah 2009 prediction contest after week #1 (i.e., the Utah St. game).

Standings sorted by ranking

  +----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  |                            season  Utah St  USU Point Components    Utah     USU |
  |             poster   rank   total   points   win     mov      df    pred    pred |
  |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |  Color Me Badd Fan      1   96.19    96.19    20   38.10   38.10      34      17 |
  |            scottie      1   96.19    96.19    20   38.10   38.10      34      17 |
  |         BoylenOver      1   96.19    96.19    20   38.10   38.10      34      17 |
  |            snowcat      4   89.23    89.23    20   40.00   29.23      31      13 |
  |              U-Ute      4   89.23    89.23    20   40.00   29.23      31      13 |
  |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |   Mormon Red Death      6   88.57    88.57    20   34.29   34.29      38      17 |
  |     il Padrino Ute      7   87.67    87.67    20   36.19   31.48      33      13 |
  |     PaloAltoCougar      8   85.90    85.90    20   38.10   27.80      30      13 |
  |      Jeff Lebowski      9   82.62    82.62    20   30.48   32.15      34      21 |
  |       DrumNFeather     10   82.46    82.46    20   36.19   26.26      41      21 |
  |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              byu71     11   81.14    81.14    20   40.00   21.14      28      10 |
  |     Jarid in Cedar     11   81.14    81.14    20   40.00   21.14      28      10 |
  |             Surfah     13   78.93    78.93    20   34.29   24.64      31      10 |
  |        chrisrenrut     13   78.93    78.93    20   34.29   24.64      31      10 |
  |          creekster     15   77.85    77.85    20   38.10   19.75      27      10 |
  |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |        CardiacCoug     15   77.85    77.85    20   38.10   19.75      27      10 |
  | HuskyFreeNorthwest     15   77.85    77.85    20   38.10   19.75      27      10 |
  |          Katy Lied     15   77.85    77.85    20   38.10   19.75      28       9 |
  |             DU Ute     19   77.14    77.14    20   26.67   30.48      38      13 |
  |          bluegoose     20   76.32    76.32    20   34.29   22.03      27      12 |
  |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |          Donuthole     21   75.10    75.10    20   28.57   26.53      34      10 |
  |         cougjunkie     22   69.78    69.78    20   38.10   11.68      24       7 |
  |                8BR     22   69.78    69.78    20   38.10   11.68      24       7 |
  |        Flystripper     24   69.52    69.52    20   24.76   24.76      27      17 |
  |             Sizzle     24   69.52    69.52    20   24.76   24.76      27      17 |
  |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |     NorthShoreCoug     26   68.06    68.06    20   28.57   19.49      31       7 |
  |            falafel     27   67.55    67.55    20   32.38   15.16      24      10 |
  |            UteStar     27   67.55    67.55    20   32.38   15.16      24      10 |
  |      Clark Addison     27   67.55    67.55    20   32.38   15.16      28       6 |
  |          SoCalCoug     30   64.37    64.37    20   26.67   17.71      31       6 |
  |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |            nikuman     30   64.37    64.37    20   26.67   17.71      24      13 |
  |          Hot Lunch     30   64.37    64.37    20   26.67   17.71      24      13 |
  |      Goatnapper'96     33   60.67    60.67    20   24.76   15.91      23      13 |
  |               Borg     34   59.91    59.91    20   20.95   18.96      34       6 |
  |         CougarFan3     35   58.10    58.10    20   38.10    0.00      17       0 |
  |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |         Rickomatic     36   56.85    56.85    20   26.67   10.19      21      10 |
  |         SeattleUte     37   53.22    53.22    20   20.95   12.27      21      13 |
  |              Solon     38   49.13    49.13    20   11.43   17.71      24      21 |
  |        I.J. Reilly     39   43.43    43.43    20   20.95    2.48      17       9 |
  |           beefytee     40   42.26    42.26    20   19.05    3.21      17      10 |
  |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |  smokymountainrain     41   34.97    34.97    20    1.90   13.06      45       7 |
  |              Brian     42   34.83    34.83    20    1.90   12.93      44       6 |
  |            ewth8tr     43    6.73     6.73     0    0.00    6.73      31      34 |
  |       TripletDaddy     44    3.61     3.61     0    0.00    3.61      21      30 |
  |              YOhio     45    0.00     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      10      14 |
  +----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Standings listed in alphabetical order

 +----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  |                            season  Utah St  USU Point Components    Utah     USU |
  |             poster   rank   total   points   win     mov      df    pred    pred |
  |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |                8BR     22   69.78    69.78    20   38.10   11.68      24       7 |
  |           beefytee     40   42.26    42.26    20   19.05    3.21      17      10 |
  |          bluegoose     20   76.32    76.32    20   34.29   22.03      27      12 |
  |               Borg     34   59.91    59.91    20   20.95   18.96      34       6 |
  |         BoylenOver      1   96.19    96.19    20   38.10   38.10      34      17 |
  |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              Brian     42   34.83    34.83    20    1.90   12.93      44       6 |
  |              byu71     11   81.14    81.14    20   40.00   21.14      28      10 |
  |        CardiacCoug     15   77.85    77.85    20   38.10   19.75      27      10 |
  |        chrisrenrut     13   78.93    78.93    20   34.29   24.64      31      10 |
  |      Clark Addison     27   67.55    67.55    20   32.38   15.16      28       6 |
  |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |  Color Me Badd Fan      1   96.19    96.19    20   38.10   38.10      34      17 |
  |         CougarFan3     35   58.10    58.10    20   38.10    0.00      17       0 |
  |         cougjunkie     22   69.78    69.78    20   38.10   11.68      24       7 |
  |          creekster     15   77.85    77.85    20   38.10   19.75      27      10 |
  |          Donuthole     21   75.10    75.10    20   28.57   26.53      34      10 |
  |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |       DrumNFeather     10   82.46    82.46    20   36.19   26.26      41      21 |
  |             DU Ute     19   77.14    77.14    20   26.67   30.48      38      13 |
  |            ewth8tr     43    6.73     6.73     0    0.00    6.73      31      34 |
  |            falafel     27   67.55    67.55    20   32.38   15.16      24      10 |
  |        Flystripper     24   69.52    69.52    20   24.76   24.76      27      17 |
  |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |      Goatnapper'96     33   60.67    60.67    20   24.76   15.91      23      13 |
  |          Hot Lunch     30   64.37    64.37    20   26.67   17.71      24      13 |
  | HuskyFreeNorthwest     15   77.85    77.85    20   38.10   19.75      27      10 |
  |        I.J. Reilly     39   43.43    43.43    20   20.95    2.48      17       9 |
  |     il Padrino Ute      7   87.67    87.67    20   36.19   31.48      33      13 |
  |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |     Jarid in Cedar     11   81.14    81.14    20   40.00   21.14      28      10 |
  |      Jeff Lebowski      9   82.62    82.62    20   30.48   32.15      34      21 |
  |          Katy Lied     15   77.85    77.85    20   38.10   19.75      28       9 |
  |   Mormon Red Death      6   88.57    88.57    20   34.29   34.29      38      17 |
  |            nikuman     30   64.37    64.37    20   26.67   17.71      24      13 |
  |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |     NorthShoreCoug     26   68.06    68.06    20   28.57   19.49      31       7 |
  |     PaloAltoCougar      8   85.90    85.90    20   38.10   27.80      30      13 |
  |         Rickomatic     36   56.85    56.85    20   26.67   10.19      21      10 |
  |            scottie      1   96.19    96.19    20   38.10   38.10      34      17 |
  |         SeattleUte     37   53.22    53.22    20   20.95   12.27      21      13 |
  |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |             Sizzle     24   69.52    69.52    20   24.76   24.76      27      17 |
  |  smokymountainrain     41   34.97    34.97    20    1.90   13.06      45       7 |
  |            snowcat      4   89.23    89.23    20   40.00   29.23      31      13 |
  |          SoCalCoug     30   64.37    64.37    20   26.67   17.71      31       6 |
  |              Solon     38   49.13    49.13    20   11.43   17.71      24      21 |
  |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |             Surfah     13   78.93    78.93    20   34.29   24.64      31      10 |
  |       TripletDaddy     44    3.61     3.61     0    0.00    3.61      21      30 |
  |              U-Ute      4   89.23    89.23    20   40.00   29.23      31      13 |
  |            UteStar     27   67.55    67.55    20   32.38   15.16      24      10 |
  |              YOhio     45    0.00     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      10      14 |
  +----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

[pelagius]

Summary statistics for the USU game

    variable |      mean       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+------------------------------------------------------------
   Utah pred |     28.00     28.00     24.00     31.00     10.00     45.00
Utah St pred |     12.44     10.00     10.00     14.00      0.00     34.00
      winner |      0.93      1.00      1.00      1.00      0.00      1.00
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Surfah]

Nice work Pelagius. Thanks for doing this. This is really cool.

[Sizzle]

I missed updating the scoring until just recently. I've updated... when will my score be posted?

[pelagius]

I missed updating the scoring until just recently. I've updated... when will my score be posted?

You should be in there now.

[Sizzle]

Maybe you explained this somewhere else, but I missed the correct score by only 8 points, Utah 27, USU 17. Yet I scored worse than people who picked 24-7 (off by 11 points on Utah and 10 points on USU), 28-10 (off by 8 points on Utah, 7 points on USU or 15 points total) and 27-10 (off by 16 points total).

Not trying to complain, just trying to understand.

[pelagius]

Maybe you explained this somewhere else, but I missed the correct score by only 8 points, Utah 27, USU 17. Yet I scored worse than people who picked 24-7 (off by 11 points on Utah and 10 points on USU), 28-10 (off by 8 points on Utah, 7 points on USU or 15 points total) and 27-10 (off by 16 points total).

Not trying to complain, just trying to understand.

Well it is a weighting issue which by its nature is pretty arbitary. Look at the columns labeled MOV and DF. MOV is the margin of victory component of the points. The people who picked 24-7 got virtually all the MOV of victory points (28.57 out of 30 since they we off by 1). The DF portion is the distance portion which measures exactly what you were referring to (it is actually the Euclidan distance treating the prediction and score as as x,y pairs). You will also notice that you did much better than them based on that metric. One can certainly argue that I am overweighting margin of victory relative to the point score distance and if there is consensus that I am overweighting the MOV component I would be glad to reduce the weight. There is nothing sacred about the weights or the formula ... I just thought they were reasonable. In fact I would be glad to run a poll with like three different weighting options ...

[TripletDaddy]

LOL! YOhio is dead last.

That guy seriously knows nothing about college football. It is pretty sad, actually.

[BoylenOver]

Yep, those standings look about right.

[il Padrino Ute]

LOL! YOhio is dead last.

That guy seriously knows nothing about college football. It is pretty sad, actually.

It is sad. He allows his hatred of the Utes to cause him to be irrational.

[DrumNFeather]

Didn't look like I was in there, so I updated mine as well.

[YOhio]

LOL! YOhio is dead last.

That guy seriously knows nothing about college football. It is pretty sad, actually.

pelagius intentionally rigged this thing to make me look like a fool. I'm convinced he has always had it in for me.

[pelagius]

pelagius intentionally rigged this thing to make me look like a fool. I'm convinced he has always had it in for me.

I want to disagree but it is really the only inference one can make given the data.

[Flystripper]

Maybe you explained this somewhere else, but I missed the correct score by only 8 points, Utah 27, USU 17. Yet I scored worse than people who picked 24-7 (off by 11 points on Utah and 10 points on USU), 28-10 (off by 8 points on Utah, 7 points on USU or 15 points total) and 27-10 (off by 16 points total).

Not trying to complain, just trying to understand.

I had the same prediction as you

[SeattleUte]

I tried to polite and downplay the Utes. See where it got me. No more.