TdF REST DAY REPORT

[creekster]

Perspective is important. For example, today was a rest day for the tour de France. No racing. SO what do those guys do on a ‘rest’ day? I would sleep in, eat some Oreos, and maybe a little chocolate milk, and then catch a movie and go to bed early. The last thing I would do on a rest day is ride my bike. But on the tour, the teams go for a 1.5-2 hour ride, averaging well over 20 mph, as a team or in a group of teams (e.g. Astana and Columbia rode together, with Lance saying how nice it was to ride with Hincapie). That doesn’t sound like rest to me, but if they were to not ride at all, their bodies would not do very well on the next day of racing, so the notion of rest is one of perspective.

Here is another example of the imp0ortance of perspective: Cadel Evans was quoted on the rest day, in a demonstration that he has a very ken grasp of the obvious, as saying “"At three minutes behind, my work's cut out for me." Yes indeed, Cadel. We all look froward to the three minute rabbit you are going to pull out of your . . .hat. The writers at Velonews heard this and wrote that Cadel thinks he still has a chance. The guys at cyckling news, OTOH, heard the same thign and decided it meant that Cadel thinks he is in deep trouble. As for me, I think Cadel is toast. And I like him as a rider. But he is becoming the Poulidor of his generation, except with greater grouchiness and more comlaining about his team. TO eb fair to Cadel, however, his chances in this tour were absolutely sunk by his lousy team. His deficit is a result of the failure of his team to excel in the team time trial.

Another interesting issue of persepctive is the LA/Contador battle for supremacy. LA griped openly after the stage to Alcalis that Contador had ridden without team authority and against the team plan. He also claimed he was obliged to stay on Andy Schleck’s wheel rather than try to foolow becaseu teamates don’t attack teamates. Hmmmm. Contador, otoh, said in a rest day interview that he was also following the typical cycling protocol and that he too would refuse to attack a teamate and that if LA attacked he would ride the wheel of any non-astana rivals. OOOkaaaay. The bottom line is that both of those guys expect to win the race and neither of them is going to let the other get in the way. LA made the point that the race will likely go down to the Alps. Schleck and Cadel and the few other contenders may just bide their time (barrign any unusual opening) letting contador and LA attack each other, or at least wear each other out.

This race might come down to stage 20 on Mt Ventoux, the bald moiuntin, the last real racing day of the tour, a summit finish, the site of Tony Simpson’s death, the site of LA’s gifted victory to Marco Pantani before Pantani succumbed ot his own demons and drugs some years later. Ventoux, already a storied stage, will only add to its legend this year.

As we head into week two, all the interestign story lines are still alive and more are yet to be written. What a great race!

[TripletDaddy]

For the uninitiated.....I keep reading that Lance is 8 seconds behind, while The Counter is 6 seconds behind.

I know that the final day into Paris isnt usually a real race, but would it ever come down to 2 guys simply sprinting towards Finis on the Champs?

At what point will Lance try to make up those 8 seconds? And if the positions were reversed and Lance were up by 2 or 3 seconds, would the other riders attack him on the last day?

[ERCougar]

hey creek, why wouldn't the rest day be tomorrow, to coincide with the holiday? Is there always a break at this point?

[creekster]

For the uninitiated.....I keep reading that Lance is 8 seconds behind, while The Counter is 6 seconds behind.

I know that the final day into Paris isnt usually a real race, but would it ever come down to 2 guys simply sprinting towards Finis on the Champs?

At what point will Lance try to make up those 8 seconds? And if the positions were reversed and Lance were up by 2 or 3 seconds, would the other riders attack him on the last day?

Good questions. I dont have time ot answer tonight, but I will try to do so tomorrow. In general the answer is: It depends. More to follow. (e,g, Merckx attacked off the front on the champs elysee and I thik Hinaultdid once as well; it happens)

[creekster]

hey creek, why wouldn't the rest day be tomorrow, to coincide with the holiday? Is there always a break at this point?

For a Frenchman to win on Bastille day is the ultimate honor. They WANT to race on that day. The resat day varies, but I can never recall a rest day on Bastille day.

[creekster]

For the uninitiated.....I keep reading that Lance is 8 seconds behind, while The Counter is 6 seconds behind.

I know that the final day into Paris isnt usually a real race, but would it ever come down to 2 guys simply sprinting towards Finis on the Champs?

At what point will Lance try to make up those 8 seconds? And if the positions were reversed and Lance were up by 2 or 3 seconds, would the other riders attack him on the last day?

The gernreal consnensus is that you dont attack Yellow on the stage to Paris. there have been some exceptions, but they are rare. In 89, for example, the last stage was an ITT into Paris. Lemond overcame his time deficit to FIgnon (and a shout out to Laurent FIgnon who is being treated for cancer right now) and won the race that day. In the past, as i have mentioned, both Hinault and Merckx have attacked off the front, but they were both in yellow at the time. They were just cantankerous types who wanted to win everything. If this race gets to Paris with these same times gaps, i would expect the race to the line in paris might be contested, but this year there are no time bonuses awarded and so succerssfully attacking on a flat stage like that would be very difficult. Even so, I think someone might try.

Bear in mind that the odds of the gaps staying this close are very, very slim. Someone will attack in the mountains and someone will crack and so it will go. I expect the final gaps to be more like 1 or 1.5 minutes. If so, this race will not likely be contested on the final stage.

[TripletDaddy]

The gernreal consnensus is that you dont attack Yellow on the stage to Paris. there have been some exceptions, but they are rare. In 89, for example, the last stage was an ITT into Paris. Lemond overcame his time deficit to FIgnon (and a shout out to Laurent FIgnon who is being treated for cancer right now) and won the race that day. In the past, as i have mentioned, both Hinault and Merckx have attacked off the front, but they were both in yellow at the time. They were just cantankerous types who wanted to win everything. If this race gets to Paris with these same times gaps, i would expect the race to the line in paris might be contested, but this year there are no time bonuses awarded and so succerssfully attacking on a flat stage like that would be very difficult. Even so, I think someone might try.

Bear in mind that the odds of the gaps staying this close are very, very slim. Someone will attack in the mountains and someone will crack and so it will go. I expect the final gaps to be more like 1 or 1.5 minutes. If so, this race will not likely be contested on the final stage.

So assuming Lance wants to win this thing, when do you expect him to make his move? Is it correct to assume that Lance basically has one shot to try to make his move....meaning, if he is not successful, he will capitulate to the Counter and focus on helping him win?

While the tradition may stem from a nod to ceremony, is the TdF the only race in the world where it is considered bad etiquette to race hard at the finish line? I guess it is fun to ride into Paris with a champagne flute in hand, but if I were 30 seconds out and could see the city in the distance, I would want to hammer down and go for it.

[creekster]

So assuming Lance wants to win this thing, when do you expect him to make his move? Is it correct to assume that Lance basically has one shot to try to make his move....meaning, if he is not successful, he will capitulate to the Counter and focus on helping him win?

While the tradition may stem from a nod to ceremony, is the TdF the only race in the world where it is considered bad etiquette to race hard at the finish line? I guess it is fun to ride into Paris with a champagne flute in hand, but if I were 30 seconds out and could see the city in the distance, I would want to hammer down and go for it.

Lance and contador will both make their moves in the alps. There are three hard stages, icnlduing ventoux, and two summit finishes. Look for one fo the summit finsihes to eb determinative. This race is very grueling and can become a race of attirion. It can be as important to know who is having a bad day as it can be to see who is having a good day. The ALps will make or break all of the contenders.

Ther is ALWAYS a hard race to the fhinish. Every year. You will see a hotly contested race this year. But there is no attack on the over all leader. IOW, the sprinters will go for it. The green jersey, still worn by hushovd, may be up for grabs, and it will be contested. But if Yellow has any sortof a lead at all, he will not be attacked. Moreover, on a flat rolling stage like that, it owuld be viritually impossible for anyone to attack yellow. Assume yellow is worn by LA or contador; if so, anyone who is a podium threat and tries to attack will be run down immediately by Astana. So it is not just a tradition, it is also typically futile.

[creekster]

Geez, how could I forget. Ther is also another ITT to race. That will also be potentially determinative. LA will have ot bring his A game, as Contador is very well suited, I thinkl, for this short hilly course (He accelerates very well when climbing).

[TripletDaddy]

Lance and contador will both make their moves in the alps. There are three hard stages, icnlduing ventoux, and two summit finishes. Look for one fo the summit finsihes to eb determinative. This race is very grueling and can become a race of attirion. It can be as important to know who is having a bad day as it can be to see who is having a good day. The ALps will make or break all of the contenders.

Ther is ALWAYS a hard race to the fhinish. Every year. You will see a hotly contested race this year. But there is no attack on the over all leader. IOW, the sprinters will go for it. The green jersey, still worn by hushovd, may be up for grabs, and it will be contested. But if Yellow has any sortof a lead at all, he will not be attacked. Moreover, on a flat rolling stage like that, it owuld be viritually impossible for anyone to attack yellow. Assume yellow is worn by LA or contador; if so, anyone who is a podium threat and tries to attack will be run down immediately by Astana. So it is not just a tradition, it is also typically futile.

ok, thanks. sorry for the basic entry level questions. The strategy of team riding is something with which I am unfamiliar, so some of the things going on don't make much sense to me.

when you say that it is futile to attack the yellow jersey, is it because the yellow jersey will simply respond by riding faster, thereby negating the attack? And Yellow's team will protect the overall leader? Do they do this by impeding/blocking the attackers?

In a case like this wherein both potential winners are on the same team, what is the team instructed to do? Whom do they protect?

[bluegoose]

A couple of years ago Cadel Evans found himself 20 or 30 seconds back of the leader going into the final ride into Paris. He was asked in an interview if he thought he would try to cover the gap and go for the time bonus (which they had that year on the final stage) or possibly make a break away. He left it open in his answer, but made absoultely no move through the stage as tradition would have it.

There was also the finish a few years ago when Vinokourov broke on the Champs and stayed away for a solo victory, also moving up several spots in the overall standings. I thought it was a phenomenal and gutsy move. Levi Leipheimer was one of the guys bumped in the standings out of the top 5. As I recall, he was quite miffed about the move when speaking in a post-race conference.

[mtnbiker]

when you say that it is futile to attack the yellow jersey, is it because the yellow jersey will simply respond by riding faster, thereby negating the attack? And Yellow's team will protect the overall leader? Do they do this by impeding/blocking the attackers?

In a case like this wherein both potential winners are on the same team, what is the team instructed to do? Whom do they protect?

It's futile because the yellow jersey's entire team would ride faster, potentially turning the stage into a team time trial. Any dangerous attacks would be reeled in. And everybody else in the peloton would be miffed.

As for the case where 2 potential winners are on the same team.... It's hard to say what would happen. Could split the team, or could just let the 2 battle it out between themselves. That's why everybody's on the edge of their seats, to see how it plays out.

[creekster]

ok, thanks. sorry for the basic entry level questions. The strategy of team riding is something with which I am unfamiliar, so some of the things going on don't make much sense to me.

when you say that it is futile to attack the yellow jersey, is it because the yellow jersey will simply respond by riding faster, thereby negating the attack? And Yellow's team will protect the overall leader? Do they do this by impeding/blocking the attackers?

In a case like this wherein both potential winners are on the same team, what is the team instructed to do? Whom do they protect?

No problems. My co-workers appreciate the questions you and others ask here as it make sit less likely that I wander around and jabber to them abotu the race.

Futile becasue team Astana would chase down any attack mader. ther eis no blocking or impeding allowed, but rember that Atana won the team time trial so if evans or anyone else tries to attack on the last day, Astana is more than capable of running the attack down. rember that the ability of 9 riders to sustain a high speed over distacne ios much greater than a single rider.

Both riders ont he same team is a very rare occurence. My guess here is that they would not attack each other. AStana will likely leave the standings be after Ventoux. In a sprint for the line on a flqat course, Ilike Aremstrong's chances, but onyl marginally, and it is more liekly that neither contador nor LAwould be able to gap the other in the final stage.

Bluegoose's examples were good ones, btw. I had forgotten about Vino's panache in the final stage.

[SteelBlue]

when you say that it is futile to attack the yellow jersey, is it because the yellow jersey will simply respond by riding faster, thereby negating the attack? And Yellow's team will protect the overall leader? Do they do this by impeding/blocking the attackers?

It's a flat stage where any breakaway that was a threat to the yellow jersey would easily be reeled in. The peleton working together can always go faster than any breakaway group. The only reason any breakaway ever survives is when the peleton either doesn't care or they can't reach an "agreement" in time on how the work should be shared up front.

Since Armstrong and Contador are on the same team you can bet your life that no attack will come on the final day assuming they are still 1 and 2. The race will have been decided.

[beelzebabette]

Both riders ont he same team is a very rare occurence. My guess here is that they would not attack each other. AStana will likely leave the standings be after Ventoux. In a sprint for the line on a flqat course, Ilike Aremstrong's chances, but onyl marginally, and it is more liekly that neither contador nor LAwould be able to gap the other in the final stage.

Last year, was it a done deal before the tour that Sastre was going to be the Saxo Bank rider in the end, or did they just let thing play out as they may between F. Schleck & Sastre on L'Alpe-d'Huez? Did Frank hold back except to respond to attacks from VDV & Evans? I can't really remember how that worked out.