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Utah Prediction Contest Results: Arizona Game

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  • #1

    Utah Prediction Contest Results: Arizona Game

    Overall standings as of the Arizon game:

    Code:
      +-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  |               poster   rank    total   points   win     mov      df   bpred   opred |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |            Applejack      1   615.11    91.58    34   28.05   29.53      27      34 |
  |          Flystripper      2   583.77    74.00    34   15.40   24.60      20      38 |
  |           The_Douger      3   581.53    88.04    34   29.70   24.34      19      31 |
  |              scottie      4   581.15    93.05    34   29.70   29.35      21      33 |
  |              Moliere      5   572.26    82.09    34   26.40   21.69      21      27 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |        Jeff Lebowski      6   569.28   100.00    34   33.00   33.00      24      34 |
  |             LiveCoug      7   539.51    85.09    34   28.05   23.04      27      40 |
  |              FN Phat      8   519.11    83.93    34   29.70   20.23      17      29 |
  |         BlueNtheFace      9   506.76    93.05    34   29.70   29.35      25      37 |
  |       PaloAltoCougar     10   501.31    19.31     0    0.00   19.31      30      27 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |           Joe Public     11   494.08    92.57    34   31.35   27.23      27      38 |
  |           Rickomatic     12   475.66    73.01    34   15.40   23.61      26      28 |
  |          Medfordcoug     13   472.10    71.27    34   26.40   10.87      14      28 |
  |        Coach McGuirk     14   469.14    71.90    34   15.40   22.50      17      35 |
  |        Goatnapper'96     15   468.01    18.30     0    0.00   18.30      31      27 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |        UtahJazzFan88     16   463.99     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      27      17 |
  |          chrisrenrut     17   459.34    82.09    34   26.40   21.69      17      31 |
  |        Blueintheface     18   458.75    74.21    34   17.60   22.60      24      27 |
  |           BoylenOver     19   442.79    18.30     0    0.00   18.30      31      27 |
  | New Mexican Disaster     20   435.39    92.57    34   31.35   27.23      20      31 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              hostile     21   415.59    13.19     0    0.00   13.19      27      24 |
  |             Sullyute     22   406.60     3.30     0    0.00    3.30      38      27 |
  |            Donuthole     23   403.52    47.19    34    0.00   13.19      21      44 |
  |          Parrot Head     24   402.88    88.78    34   26.40   28.38      24      30 |
  |               Surfah     25   347.27        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |                  CJF     26   339.45     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      27      16 |
  |        Clark Addison     27   319.45    71.89    34   28.05    9.84      17      24 |
  |             camleish     28   310.66        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |           Drunk Tank     29   297.71        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |          BemidjiCoug     30   294.36        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |        originalsocal     31   293.42     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      34      14 |
  |            bluegoose     32   278.17        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               LA Ute     33   269.03        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |       Jarid in Cedar     34   265.78     8.26     0    0.00    8.26      37      33 |
  |             The_Tick     35   252.92        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |                Solon     36   238.77        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               Pelado     37   231.05        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               DU Ute     38   226.31     8.70     0    0.00    8.70      32      24 |
  |         DrumNFeather     39   225.55     7.54     0    0.00    7.54      36      28 |
  |            OrangeUte     40   211.39     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      41      30 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |     Mormon Red Death     41   203.88     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      34      17 |
  |              UteStar     42   196.95        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |             USU Coug     43   185.18        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |                U-Ute     44   166.36        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |             Devildog     45   164.98        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |            Omaha 680     46   163.25        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            wuapinmon     47   162.62    34.00    34    0.00    0.00       0      27 |
  |              Top Ute     48   149.56        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |                wally     49   142.57        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |           kimchicoug     50   132.46        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |          CardiacCoug     51   127.14        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |                byu71     52   126.67     7.68     0    0.00    7.68      27      21 |
  |             SportUTE     53   116.09        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |   HuskyFreeNorthwest     54   114.79        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               wapiti     55   110.32    45.53    34    0.00   11.53      16      42 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |             BigPiney     56   108.02        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |                 Borg     57   103.97        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               Topper     58   103.89        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |             kccougar     59   101.61        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |    Color Me Badd Fan     60    97.19        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |             Commando     61    94.93        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |    smokymountainrain     62    87.27        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |              snowcat     63    84.66        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |              falafel     64    82.43        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |         Lost Student     65    75.69        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              UtahDan     66    73.17        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |              LA Coug     67    66.36        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |      Dwight Schr-ute     68    65.22        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |        bronson_tyler     69    63.93        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            OceanBlue     70    62.39        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |            Uncle Ted     71    56.18        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |                YOhio     72    49.40        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |              Scorcho     73    45.37        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |              Danimal     74    43.89        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            SoCalCoug     75    43.84        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |         All-American     76    40.21        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            SteelBlue     77    38.63        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               SCcoug     78    36.52        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            myboynoah     79    34.00        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |              Maximus     80    32.36        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |                  bag     81    31.29        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               fbguru     82    30.79        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               sparky     83    28.64        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               oxcoug     84    28.39        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |       Sleeping in EQ     85    27.79        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              venkman     86    26.25        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            Indy Coug     86    26.25        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            creekster     88    23.65        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |             happyone     89    23.06        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |          thesaint258     90    19.31        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |               Viking     90    19.31        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |         San Juan Sun     92    18.37        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |          Coastal Ute     93    18.30        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |       NorthShoreCoug     94    17.54        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |           lambdacoug     95    14.88        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |           pellegrino     96    13.19        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  | purplmonkeydishwashr     97    10.87        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |                Shaka     98     8.33        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |              statman     99     5.83        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |         TripletDaddy    100     5.50        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |          splitbamboo    101     5.37        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |          TexTechCoug    102     4.79        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |             eldiente    103     4.10        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |           SeattleUte    104     0.00        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               Utes23    104     0.00        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |           Bo Diddley    104     0.00        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  +-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Standings sorted by Arizona game results:

    Code:
      +-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  |               poster   rank    total   points   win     mov      df   bpred   opred |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |        Jeff Lebowski      6   569.28   100.00    34   33.00   33.00      24      34 |
  |              scottie      4   581.15    93.05    34   29.70   29.35      21      33 |
  |         BlueNtheFace      9   506.76    93.05    34   29.70   29.35      25      37 |
  |           Joe Public     11   494.08    92.57    34   31.35   27.23      27      38 |
  | New Mexican Disaster     20   435.39    92.57    34   31.35   27.23      20      31 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |            Applejack      1   615.11    91.58    34   28.05   29.53      27      34 |
  |          Parrot Head     24   402.88    88.78    34   26.40   28.38      24      30 |
  |           The_Douger      3   581.53    88.04    34   29.70   24.34      19      31 |
  |             LiveCoug      7   539.51    85.09    34   28.05   23.04      27      40 |
  |              FN Phat      8   519.11    83.93    34   29.70   20.23      17      29 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              Moliere      5   572.26    82.09    34   26.40   21.69      21      27 |
  |          chrisrenrut     17   459.34    82.09    34   26.40   21.69      17      31 |
  |        Blueintheface     18   458.75    74.21    34   17.60   22.60      24      27 |
  |          Flystripper      2   583.77    74.00    34   15.40   24.60      20      38 |
  |           Rickomatic     12   475.66    73.01    34   15.40   23.61      26      28 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |        Coach McGuirk     14   469.14    71.90    34   15.40   22.50      17      35 |
  |        Clark Addison     27   319.45    71.89    34   28.05    9.84      17      24 |
  |          Medfordcoug     13   472.10    71.27    34   26.40   10.87      14      28 |
  |            Donuthole     23   403.52    47.19    34    0.00   13.19      21      44 |
  |               wapiti     55   110.32    45.53    34    0.00   11.53      16      42 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |            wuapinmon     47   162.62    34.00    34    0.00    0.00       0      27 |
  |       PaloAltoCougar     10   501.31    19.31     0    0.00   19.31      30      27 |
  |           BoylenOver     19   442.79    18.30     0    0.00   18.30      31      27 |
  |        Goatnapper'96     15   468.01    18.30     0    0.00   18.30      31      27 |
  |              hostile     21   415.59    13.19     0    0.00   13.19      27      24 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |               DU Ute     38   226.31     8.70     0    0.00    8.70      32      24 |
  |       Jarid in Cedar     34   265.78     8.26     0    0.00    8.26      37      33 |
  |                byu71     52   126.67     7.68     0    0.00    7.68      27      21 |
  |         DrumNFeather     39   225.55     7.54     0    0.00    7.54      36      28 |
  |             Sullyute     22   406.60     3.30     0    0.00    3.30      38      27 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |                  CJF     26   339.45     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      27      16 |
  |        UtahJazzFan88     16   463.99     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      27      17 |
  |     Mormon Red Death     41   203.88     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      34      17 |
  |        originalsocal     31   293.42     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      34      14 |
  |            OrangeUte     40   211.39     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      41      30 |
  +-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

    Comment

    • #3
      Standings sorted by poster name:

      Code:
        +-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  |               poster   rank    total   points   win     mov      df   bpred   opred |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |         All-American     76    40.21        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            Applejack      1   615.11    91.58    34   28.05   29.53      27      34 |
  |                  bag     81    31.29        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |          BemidjiCoug     30   294.36        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |             BigPiney     56   108.02        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |            bluegoose     32   278.17        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |        Blueintheface     18   458.75    74.21    34   17.60   22.60      24      27 |
  |         BlueNtheFace      9   506.76    93.05    34   29.70   29.35      25      37 |
  |           Bo Diddley    104     0.00        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |                 Borg     57   103.97        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |           BoylenOver     19   442.79    18.30     0    0.00   18.30      31      27 |
  |        bronson_tyler     69    63.93        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |                byu71     52   126.67     7.68     0    0.00    7.68      27      21 |
  |             camleish     28   310.66        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |          CardiacCoug     51   127.14        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |          chrisrenrut     17   459.34    82.09    34   26.40   21.69      17      31 |
  |                  CJF     26   339.45     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      27      16 |
  |        Clark Addison     27   319.45    71.89    34   28.05    9.84      17      24 |
  |        Coach McGuirk     14   469.14    71.90    34   15.40   22.50      17      35 |
  |          Coastal Ute     93    18.30        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |    Color Me Badd Fan     60    97.19        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |             Commando     61    94.93        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            creekster     88    23.65        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |              Danimal     74    43.89        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |             Devildog     45   164.98        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |            Donuthole     23   403.52    47.19    34    0.00   13.19      21      44 |
  |         DrumNFeather     39   225.55     7.54     0    0.00    7.54      36      28 |
  |           Drunk Tank     29   297.71        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               DU Ute     38   226.31     8.70     0    0.00    8.70      32      24 |
  |      Dwight Schr-ute     68    65.22        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |             eldiente    103     4.10        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |              falafel     64    82.43        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               fbguru     82    30.79        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |          Flystripper      2   583.77    74.00    34   15.40   24.60      20      38 |
  |              FN Phat      8   519.11    83.93    34   29.70   20.23      17      29 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |        Goatnapper'96     15   468.01    18.30     0    0.00   18.30      31      27 |
  |             happyone     89    23.06        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |              hostile     21   415.59    13.19     0    0.00   13.19      27      24 |
  |   HuskyFreeNorthwest     54   114.79        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            Indy Coug     86    26.25        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |       Jarid in Cedar     34   265.78     8.26     0    0.00    8.26      37      33 |
  |        Jeff Lebowski      6   569.28   100.00    34   33.00   33.00      24      34 |
  |           Joe Public     11   494.08    92.57    34   31.35   27.23      27      38 |
  |             kccougar     59   101.61        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |           kimchicoug     50   132.46        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              LA Coug     67    66.36        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               LA Ute     33   269.03        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |           lambdacoug     95    14.88        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |             LiveCoug      7   539.51    85.09    34   28.05   23.04      27      40 |
  |         Lost Student     65    75.69        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              Maximus     80    32.36        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |          Medfordcoug     13   472.10    71.27    34   26.40   10.87      14      28 |
  |              Moliere      5   572.26    82.09    34   26.40   21.69      21      27 |
  |     Mormon Red Death     41   203.88     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      34      17 |
  |            myboynoah     79    34.00        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  | New Mexican Disaster     20   435.39    92.57    34   31.35   27.23      20      31 |
  |       NorthShoreCoug     94    17.54        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            OceanBlue     70    62.39        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            Omaha 680     46   163.25        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            OrangeUte     40   211.39     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      41      30 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |        originalsocal     31   293.42     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      34      14 |
  |               oxcoug     84    28.39        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |       PaloAltoCougar     10   501.31    19.31     0    0.00   19.31      30      27 |
  |          Parrot Head     24   402.88    88.78    34   26.40   28.38      24      30 |
  |               Pelado     37   231.05        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |           pellegrino     96    13.19        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  | purplmonkeydishwashr     97    10.87        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |           Rickomatic     12   475.66    73.01    34   15.40   23.61      26      28 |
  |         San Juan Sun     92    18.37        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               SCcoug     78    36.52        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              Scorcho     73    45.37        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |              scottie      4   581.15    93.05    34   29.70   29.35      21      33 |
  |           SeattleUte    104     0.00        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |                Shaka     98     8.33        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |       Sleeping in EQ     85    27.79        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |    smokymountainrain     62    87.27        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |              snowcat     63    84.66        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            SoCalCoug     75    43.84        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |                Solon     36   238.77        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               sparky     83    28.64        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |          splitbamboo    101     5.37        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |             SportUTE     53   116.09        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |              statman     99     5.83        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            SteelBlue     77    38.63        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |             Sullyute     22   406.60     3.30     0    0.00    3.30      38      27 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |               Surfah     25   347.27        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |          TexTechCoug    102     4.79        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |           The_Douger      3   581.53    88.04    34   29.70   24.34      19      31 |
  |             The_Tick     35   252.92        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |          thesaint258     90    19.31        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              Top Ute     48   149.56        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               Topper     58   103.89        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |         TripletDaddy    100     5.50        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |                U-Ute     44   166.36        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            Uncle Ted     71    56.18        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |             USU Coug     43   185.18        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |              UtahDan     66    73.17        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |        UtahJazzFan88     16   463.99     0.00     0    0.00    0.00      27      17 |
  |               Utes23    104     0.00        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |              UteStar     42   196.95        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              venkman     86    26.25        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               Viking     90    19.31        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |                wally     49   142.57        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               wapiti     55   110.32    45.53    34    0.00   11.53      16      42 |
  |            wuapinmon     47   162.62    34.00    34    0.00    0.00       0      27 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |                YOhio     72    49.40        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  +-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

      Comment

      • #4
        Prediction summary stats for the Arizona game:

        Code:
            variable |      mean       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+------------------------------------------------------------
   utah pred |     25.03     26.00     20.00     31.00      0.00     41.00
    opp pred |     29.14     28.00     27.00     34.00     14.00     44.00
      winner |      0.60      1.00      0.00      1.00      0.00      1.00
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        Comment

        • #5
          There ought to be a bigger bonus for a perfect prediction.
          "There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
          "It's no secret that the great American pastime is no longer baseball. Now it's sanctimony." -- Guy Periwinkle, The Nix.
          "Juilliardk N I ibuprofen Hyu I U unhurt u" - creekster

          Comment

          • #6
            Originally posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
            There ought to be a bigger bonus for a perfect prediction.
            I disagree. I think the scoring has been perfectly calibrated. Thanks Pelagius' computers!

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