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Do not submit a prediction score in this thread. It just explains the contest.
Each week a score of 100 is possible. Here is the formula:
Format for scores:
---------------------
BYU|X
OPPONENT|Y
---------------------
First line of the post must be BYU and then the numerical score prediction. The second line must be the opponent name and the numerical score prediction. The data are collected by a little script I wrote so if you make things non-standard it makes it more likely that your prediction doesn't get counted. You must use the pipe delimiter (not a lower case "l", a "|") ... the script scans for the delimiter. The script doesn't care that you prefer a different delimiter. Don't add any other punctation. I am not going to check time stamps for predictions so your on your honor for not posting a prediction ex post. BYU or a reasonable variation* on the team name must be used or the script will not recognize (and hence record) your offering. You can use call the opponent anything you want (in case you like to mock the opponent via your choice of name)
FAQ
-----
1. Wow, the formula changed. Why?
A. To give Parrot head a challenge.
2. How is the new formula different than the old formula?
See the following thread where I discuss the changes http://cougaruteforum.com/showthread.php?t=61157 Here is Indy's explanation for the mathematically disadvantaged: "I think in a nutshell, it puts less emphasis on picking the correct winner and more emphasis on correctly predicting the score."
3. What is the optimal prediction score strategy?
Mimic Parrot Head until the final game. On the final game pick a different score than Parrot Head and hope you get lucky.
4. How will a tie breaker be determined?
A. There is no tie breaker provision
5. Where is the Utah contest?
A. Yeah, do the same format for the Utah contest, etc, etc.
6. Is there a cool prize?
A. Based on history, the probability of a cool prize is very low.
7. What happens if I post multiple predictions?
A. The script only stores your last prediction you post in a thread.
8. Can I post non prediction content or commentary on my predictions in the prediction threads?
A. You can post other commentary in the threads. Just make sure the predictions come in the form of
BYU|X
OPP|Y
or
Utah|X
OPP|Y
as the first two lines of the post.
9. Why do you run the contest if you hold it in such disdain?
A. I don't know but one possible explanation is that I am consubstantial with Creekster and Leb.
10. I keep looking at that refernce to "Euclidean distance" and assume that somewhere, someone is reading this and laughing so hard that a couple of pens fall out of their pocket protector. But, in fact, I have no idea if it is a joke or not. Is it a Joke?
No:
11. I heard you liked the Twilight series. Can this possibly be true?
A. People's understanding of my view of the Twilight series has been mythologized. I would say it is similar to what happened to the Robert E. Lee because of "Lost Cause" writers in the south.
12. What is your favorite perl module on CPAN?
A. That's a tough one. I don't think it is my favorite, but I would be remiss if I didn't mention that I find Text::CSV_XS incredibly useful.
13. What is your least favorite Jane Austen novel?
A. That's easy: Persuasion.
15. Why don't you make the script more general or flexible?
A. Lazy
16. What linux distribution are you using these days?
A. I am using Fedora these days (forget trying to convince me Ubuntu and FreeBSD fan boys). I didn't like some of the recent changes to Arch Linux.
Do not submit a prediction score in this thread.
Each week a score of 100 is possible. Here is the formula:
Code:
Points = 34*winner + 33*f(|MOVD|) + 33*g(d(predicted,actual))
Winner = 1 if the winning team is correctly picked, 0 otherwise
MOVD = margin of victory diferrential: Predicted (MOV) - Actual(MOV)
d( , ) = Euclidean distance
f(x) = 1 - 0.75(x/15) if x <= 5,
= 1 - 1.00(x/15) if 4 < x <= 10
= 1 - 1.25(x/15) if 10 < x <= 12
= 0 if 15 < x
g(x) = 1 - 0.70(x/20) if x <= 5,
= 1 - 0.90(x/20) if 5 < x <= 10
= 1 - 1.15(x/20) if 10 < x <= 17
= 0 if 20 < x
---------------------
BYU|X
OPPONENT|Y
---------------------
First line of the post must be BYU and then the numerical score prediction. The second line must be the opponent name and the numerical score prediction. The data are collected by a little script I wrote so if you make things non-standard it makes it more likely that your prediction doesn't get counted. You must use the pipe delimiter (not a lower case "l", a "|") ... the script scans for the delimiter. The script doesn't care that you prefer a different delimiter. Don't add any other punctation. I am not going to check time stamps for predictions so your on your honor for not posting a prediction ex post. BYU or a reasonable variation* on the team name must be used or the script will not recognize (and hence record) your offering. You can use call the opponent anything you want (in case you like to mock the opponent via your choice of name)
FAQ
-----
1. Wow, the formula changed. Why?
A. To give Parrot head a challenge.
2. How is the new formula different than the old formula?
See the following thread where I discuss the changes http://cougaruteforum.com/showthread.php?t=61157 Here is Indy's explanation for the mathematically disadvantaged: "I think in a nutshell, it puts less emphasis on picking the correct winner and more emphasis on correctly predicting the score."
3. What is the optimal prediction score strategy?
Mimic Parrot Head until the final game. On the final game pick a different score than Parrot Head and hope you get lucky.
4. How will a tie breaker be determined?
A. There is no tie breaker provision
5. Where is the Utah contest?
A. Yeah, do the same format for the Utah contest, etc, etc.
6. Is there a cool prize?
A. Based on history, the probability of a cool prize is very low.
7. What happens if I post multiple predictions?
A. The script only stores your last prediction you post in a thread.
8. Can I post non prediction content or commentary on my predictions in the prediction threads?
A. You can post other commentary in the threads. Just make sure the predictions come in the form of
BYU|X
OPP|Y
or
Utah|X
OPP|Y
as the first two lines of the post.
9. Why do you run the contest if you hold it in such disdain?
A. I don't know but one possible explanation is that I am consubstantial with Creekster and Leb.
10. I keep looking at that refernce to "Euclidean distance" and assume that somewhere, someone is reading this and laughing so hard that a couple of pens fall out of their pocket protector. But, in fact, I have no idea if it is a joke or not. Is it a Joke?
No:
11. I heard you liked the Twilight series. Can this possibly be true?
A. People's understanding of my view of the Twilight series has been mythologized. I would say it is similar to what happened to the Robert E. Lee because of "Lost Cause" writers in the south.
12. What is your favorite perl module on CPAN?
A. That's a tough one. I don't think it is my favorite, but I would be remiss if I didn't mention that I find Text::CSV_XS incredibly useful.
13. What is your least favorite Jane Austen novel?
A. That's easy: Persuasion.
15. Why don't you make the script more general or flexible?
A. Lazy
16. What linux distribution are you using these days?
A. I am using Fedora these days (forget trying to convince me Ubuntu and FreeBSD fan boys). I didn't like some of the recent changes to Arch Linux.
Do not submit a prediction score in this thread.
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