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As it now looks like there is a very real chance that the Republicans will nominate Newt, I was thinking yesterday about what Utah would do in the general election if that happens. I don't think for a minute that Obama would actually win the state, but you would have an interesting situation. Many Utahns would take the loss of Romney very personally, feeling that this is a rejection of their religion by the nation's Republicans. Then there are the moral issues. Of course, we have a great capability to forgive those on our own "team" when they do things things that would otherwise provoke strong condemnation. But I think there are many in Utah that will not easily vote for a man of Newt's failings, especially after what he has done to a favored son.
Here are Utah's results over the last few Presidential elections.
2008
R: 62%
D: 34%
Other: 4%
2004
R: 72%
D: 26%
Other: 2%
2000
R: 67%
D: 26%
Other: 7% (mostly Nader, some Buchanan)
1996
R: 54%
D: 33%
Other: 12% (Mostly Perot)
1992
R: 43%
D: 25%
Other: 32% (27% for Perot, 4% for Bo Gritz)
1988
R: 53%
D: 46%
Other: 1%
I was a bit surprised to be reminded that Utah was competitive as recently as 1988, though the last time Utah voted for the Dems was in 1964.
I think if Newt wins you could see a 1992-like result, where a third party picks up a large amount of votes, especially if someone like Paul runs. There is also a chance that this could reverse Utah's 40 year trend of becoming more and more Republican. I don't really know how this would work though, as there are a whole lot of folks like IPU who wouldn't be very happy with the Republicans, but aren't about to go over to the Dems.
Here are Utah's results over the last few Presidential elections.
2008
R: 62%
D: 34%
Other: 4%
2004
R: 72%
D: 26%
Other: 2%
2000
R: 67%
D: 26%
Other: 7% (mostly Nader, some Buchanan)
1996
R: 54%
D: 33%
Other: 12% (Mostly Perot)
1992
R: 43%
D: 25%
Other: 32% (27% for Perot, 4% for Bo Gritz)
1988
R: 53%
D: 46%
Other: 1%
I was a bit surprised to be reminded that Utah was competitive as recently as 1988, though the last time Utah voted for the Dems was in 1964.
I think if Newt wins you could see a 1992-like result, where a third party picks up a large amount of votes, especially if someone like Paul runs. There is also a chance that this could reverse Utah's 40 year trend of becoming more and more Republican. I don't really know how this would work though, as there are a whole lot of folks like IPU who wouldn't be very happy with the Republicans, but aren't about to go over to the Dems.
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