Game on: Obama v Romney, the 2012 campaign for the office of the POTUS

[oxcoug]

We'll start it off here - among all voters as of today 48% think Romney will do a better job with the economy, 39% say Obama. The numbers at this point suggest that Romney can extract some positives from the Bain onslaught and translate them to the general (i.e. some voters might look at his rightsizing business history as practice for rightsizing a bloated govt).

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/01/1...ack-is-a-flop/

[Maximus]

If I had to guess, Id say Obama wins. It is just hard for incumbents to lose, and I dont think Romney excites the base enough to get everyone out to vote.

[TripletDaddy]

If I had to guess, Id say Obama wins. The economy will improve slowley,

I tend to think that for a sitting president, all he needs is a glimmer of hope or upward trend in the economy.....unemployment slowly going down, interest rates remain low, for example.

He really solidified his shot at a second term the night the US killed OBL.

Also, there are more black voters than Mormon voters and I'm still not convinced that the religious right doesn't hate Mos. Look for Ron Paul to run as an indy and split the Repub vote.

The question is if mitt loses, do we see him again in 2016 or is it time to let the dogs out for good?

[Goatnapper'96]

I tend to think that for a sitting president, all he needs is a glimmer of hope or upward trend in the economy.....unemployment slowly going down, interest rates remain low, for example.

He really solidified his shot at a second term the night the US killed OBL.

Also, there are more black voters than Mormon voters and I'm still not convinced that the religious right doesn't hate Mos. Look for Ron Paul to run as an indy and split the Repub vote.

The question is if mitt loses, do we see him again in 2016 or is it time to let the dogs out for good?

If Mitt loses, he is done for good.

[oxcoug]

Larry Kudlow distills a possible winning angle on Bain:

There's a very troubled company out there called U.S. Government Inc. It's teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. And it badly needs to be taken over and turned around. It probably even needs the services of a good private-equity firm, with plenty of experience and a reasonably good track record in downsizing, modernizing, shrinking staff and making substantial changes in management. Yes, layoffs will be a necessary part of the restructuring.

A quick look at the income statement of this troubled firm tells the story. Just in the past year (FY 2011), the firm spent $3.7 trillion, but took in only $2.2 trillion in sales revenues. Hence its deficit came to $1.5 trillion.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...ds_112772.html

If Mitt loses, he is done for good.

Yup. He'd be too old under most circumstances anyway, but a green field of promising Republicans will be ready in 2016 - Rubio / Christie / Ryan / Martinez / Jindal.

[Goatnapper'96]

Larry Kudlow distills a possible winning angle on Bain:



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...ds_112772.html




Yup. He'd be too old under most circumstances anyway, but a green field of promising Republicans will be ready in 2016 - Rubio / Christie / Ryan / Martinez / Jindal.

He doesn't excite the base. His only hope is that he will be running against an extremely weak sitting President. As you point out the Republican base is far more excited about where their Presidential options will be in 4 more years than they are today.

[CJF]

He doesn't excite the base. His only hope is that he will be running against an extremely weak sitting President. As you point out the Republican base is far more excited about where their Presidential options will be in 4 more years than they are today.

I agree. The new breed takes over the party if Mitt loses. Nobody from this batch gets in the race in 2016.

[Goatnapper'96]

We'll start it off here - among all voters as of today 48% think Romney will do a better job with the economy, 39% say Obama. The numbers at this point suggest that Romney can extract some positives from the Bain onslaught and translate them to the general (i.e. some voters might look at his rightsizing business history as practice for rightsizing a bloated govt).

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/01/1...ack-is-a-flop/

To make it easier on all these are the states that matter:

The toss ups are:

Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virgina (13)
Wisconsin (10)

The other states are pretty much decided with Obama having 229 electoral votes and Romney having 191. Personally, I don't buy that Wisconsin is still a toss up to that moves the President to 239. I think Colorado is headed to the President as well, that gives him 248. For Romney to win he needs to take Florida, New Hampshire, and 3 out of 4 of North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. I think North Carolina, Virginia and Pennsylvania are the most likely.

Of the toss ups if he wins Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Virginia and Pennsylvania he will win with 272 votes.

[Jacob]

I was thinking over the weekend that Romney is going to have to soften his talk on foreign relations and military in the general. Even within the republican party, folks are anxious to get out of Afghanistan and think we could spend less on the military. Attacking Obama on his proposed cuts and bringing the troops home is a losing battle.

Ideally, Romney would keep the focus on the economy, debt and fiscal matters. But foreign affairs will come up and he'll not want to draw strong distinctions between he and Obama, I think. Even if Romey and Bolton et al are right, they can be right once they win the office, the country's not in the mood for the militaristic talk right now.

[oxcoug]

To make it easier on all these are the states that matter:

The toss ups are:

Colorado (9)
Florida (29)
New Hampshire (4)
North Carolina (15)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
Virgina (13)
Wisconsin (10)

The other states are pretty much decided with Obama having 229 electoral votes and Romney having 191. Personally, I don't buy that Wisconsin is still a toss up to that moves the President to 239. I think Colorado is headed to the President as well, that gives him 248. For Romney to win he needs to take Florida, New Hampshire, and 3 out of 4 of North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. I think North Carolina, Virginia and Pennsylvania are the most likely.

Of the toss ups if he wins Florida, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Virginia and Pennsylvania he will win with 272 votes.

Topper and other newbs shld have a look this - this is what a substantive, value-adding contribution to a thread looks like.

I was thinking over the weekend that Romney is going to have to soften his talk on foreign relations and military in the general. Even within the republican party, folks are anxious to get out of Afghanistan and think we could spend less on the military. Attacking Obama on his proposed cuts and bringing the troops home is a losing battle.

Ideally, Romney would keep the focus on the economy, debt and fiscal matters. But foreign affairs will come up and he'll not want to draw strong distinctions between he and Obama, I think. Even if Romey and Bolton et al are right, they can be right once they win the office, the country's not in the mood for the militaristic talk right now.

I think this is true - it's going to be a fine line, he's got to show a willingness to make the military and overseas presence cost less while showing his base that it won't compromise our military readiness.

[oxcoug]

Pelado posted this article in the 'Battle of Bain Capital' thread -

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/...r-good/251419/

Thought we should have it here as well. Romney's won the First Battle of Bain, but he will fight the Second Battle of Bain on different terrain in the general and it might be the defining fight of the election - this defense of the VC/PE industry coming from a leading center/center-left publication is a good sign for him.

[byu71]

Pelado posted this article in the 'Battle of Bain Capital' thread -

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/...r-good/251419/

Thought we should have it here as well. Romney's won the First Battle of Bain, but he will fight the Second Battle of Bain on different terrain in the general and it might be the defining fight of the election - this defense of the VC/PE industry coming from a leading center/center-left publication is a good sign for him.

I am sure the Obama campaign will do polling and research to see how this plays with independents before they engage in a Second Battle of Bain.

[Jacob]

Pelado posted this article in the 'Battle of Bain Capital' thread -

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/...r-good/251419/

Thought we should have it here as well. Romney's won the First Battle of Bain, but he will fight the Second Battle of Bain on different terrain in the general and it might be the defining fight of the election - this defense of the VC/PE industry coming from a leading center/center-left publication is a good sign for him.

Perhaps Romney is saving his best arguments for Obama? Give a nice economics speech in September on the art of the turn around, the elimination of debt, reduction in spending, and the virtues of free enterprise.

[oxcoug]

New CNN poll confirms Rasmussen numbers cited at beginning of thread -

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...ber-showdowns/

53% say Romney can kickstart economy, on 40% say Obama can.

[Ma'ake]

My sense is Obama is going to begin to reframe the debate.

Bain has been opened as an issue, but I think Obama will use it as part of a broader mosaic suggesting that we're in need of a tune up to capitalism, ala Teddy Roosevelt. The distribution of income statistics are nasty & getting worse. In terms of the GINI coefficient the CIA uses to assess political stability of nations, we're much closer to Mexico in terms of distribution of income than we are Canada.

If the American Dream is discarded as fantasy by an increasing number of Americans, we're in deep trouble as a nation. It's been the optimistic middle class that has been the economic engine of this nation, moreso than venture capitalists. As the middle class shrinks and more people drop off into a condition of really struggling, the American Dream is at risk, much like during Teddy Roosevelt's time.

I could see Obama proposing Wall Street reform, using Mitt as an example: "Venture capitalists should not be able to take over a company, extract profits and then let the tax payer pick up the tab when the company collapses under debt brought on by the Wall Street firm's takeover. Governor Romney - I think you should repay some of the money you made on the KC steel plant when the federal pension fund agency had to step up & bailout the depleted pension fund."

A recent article talked about CEOs who make up to 2500 times what entry level workers make. One guy makes $48,000 an hour. Excessive CEO pay is an issue. Germany is Europe's economic engine. Their CEOs make about ten times what US CEOs make.

Obama will take the Teddy Roosevelt angle: Capitalism - mend it, don't end it.