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The cast of characters:
Marco "Face" Rubio
Upside - If he is willing then the conversation should end. He's a no brainer. Damn smart, a conservative who plays well with friends and can attract voters from the other side. Delivers Florida. Can go make the case on immigration reform at exactly the moment that the GOP and the country need a strong Latino voice on the right side of the issue. Compelling personal story. Can hang with anyone in a public debate. The faster Republicans can this guy on center stage the better it will be.
Downside - not a ton of experience on the national stage and might not actually want to accept a VP spot on a ticket this early in his national political career.
Baseless guess on probability - 40%
Chris "Big Boy" Christie
Upside - Perfect attack dog compliment to Romney. More than compensates for Romney's lack of Real Guy cred. Established credibility in the war on runaway entitlement spending and in budgetary containment. Capable of mobilizing the base while also attracting centrists. He and his wife already have a good relationship with the Romneys. Might help Romney in both NJ and neighboring PA.
Downside - Really, really large - not the greatest optics. His style is sometimes thought to be too confrontational and he can come off as a bully. Although that's probably not going to hurt if he's facing off Joe Biden.
Baseless guess on probability - 15%
Mitch "2 Short" Daniels
Upside - Big time cred on both sides of the aisle when it comes to reducing debt and governing well. Knows how to make the case for fiscal conservatism and debt reduction and also knows how to execute.
Downside - Too much wonk on one ticket when combined with Romney. Too much older white man on one ticket. Tom Cruise height.
Baseless guess on probability - 5%
Susana "The Prosector" Martinez
Upside - One word: Latina. Popular New Mexico governor will help Romney neutralize what will undoubtedly be a toxic liability on immigration with the Hispanic voting block. Her positions on the issue are actually largely in alignment with him and she would become the leading voice on immigration reform. Diversifies the ticket geographically. She's very smart and accomplished. Three-time DA. Good centrist cred as well - switched to Repub from Dem in the 90s. As a Univ of Oklahoma law grad she might score Babs vote for the Romney ticket. Probably delivers a state that went to Obama in 2008. During her career as a successful prosecutor she also became a public advocate for children's rights - cld add a nice touch of compassion to the ticket.
Downside - not much of a national profile.
Baseless guess on probability - 15%
Bobby "Tonto" Jindal
Upside - Damn smart, impeccable record of good governance achieving reform in turning around the LA economy. Great background in health care (actually wrote his Oxford thesis on the topic) and will bring wonky cred to that national debate. Great problem-solving pedigree (was with McKinsey before he kicked off his political career). Diversifies the ticket both ethnically, geographically and religiously - but w/o defaulting to the lowest common denominator in the party.
Downside - Has looked a bit stage-shy when he comes in front of the cameras and won't necessarily be the most effective attack ally, which is part of what you ideally get from a VP.
Baseless guess on probability - 10%
Condaleeza "Two For One" Rice
Upside - Plays piano like a damn banshee. Neutralizes the onslaught of not-so-subtle race tactics that will undoubtedly come from Obama friends and surrogates. Brings foreign policy background into the White House.
Downside - Like it or not, she needlessly brings Rumsfeld, Bush and Cheney onto the ticket. That will be a general election liability and she probably doesn't have enough upside to justify the downside.
Baseless guess on probability - 5%.
Bob McDonnell
Upside - Popular among conservatives and could mobilize the base. Military veteran and governor of a major swing state.
Downside - Not that nationally visible, so socially conservative that it cld be a liability in competing for socially liberal centrists who are fiscal conservatives.
Baseless guess on probability - 5%
Mike "Gladhands" Huckabee
Upside - Unlikely but would create a kind of "Republican Unity Ticket" that would get out any evangelical voters who might be tempted to stay home. Brings some regular-guy charisma onto the ticket and adds a southern state geopolitical dimension.
Downside - He is currently a TV personality which might not transition easily in voters minds right now. He and Romney don't have a friendly history with each other.
Baseless guess on probability - 2.5%
Paul "Right Stuff" Ryan
Upside - The most serious contributor to the national discussion on entitlement reform, bar none. Super smart and communicates lucidly but w/o the stupid rhetorical poses that taint a lot of the public debate. Will play well in Midwestern swing states.
Downside - Was unfairly made out to be a harsh partisan figure by the Dem/media reaction to his budget. It's probably too close to the fallout from that for him to be the choice.
Baseless guess on probability - 2.5%
My personal preference is reflected in the percentages:
I'd say - 1. Rubio 2. Martinez. 3. Jindal. 4. Christie - I really think the Republican party needs to get a minority on the ticket this year and luckily there are three minorities who would be far from mere cosmetic choices.
Postscript: There are obviously a few others who could be considered - Tim Pawlenty, Nikki Haley and Jon Thune all come to mind. Haley is the only one of those I can see being seriously considered.
Marco "Face" Rubio
Upside - If he is willing then the conversation should end. He's a no brainer. Damn smart, a conservative who plays well with friends and can attract voters from the other side. Delivers Florida. Can go make the case on immigration reform at exactly the moment that the GOP and the country need a strong Latino voice on the right side of the issue. Compelling personal story. Can hang with anyone in a public debate. The faster Republicans can this guy on center stage the better it will be.
Downside - not a ton of experience on the national stage and might not actually want to accept a VP spot on a ticket this early in his national political career.
Baseless guess on probability - 40%
Chris "Big Boy" Christie
Upside - Perfect attack dog compliment to Romney. More than compensates for Romney's lack of Real Guy cred. Established credibility in the war on runaway entitlement spending and in budgetary containment. Capable of mobilizing the base while also attracting centrists. He and his wife already have a good relationship with the Romneys. Might help Romney in both NJ and neighboring PA.
Downside - Really, really large - not the greatest optics. His style is sometimes thought to be too confrontational and he can come off as a bully. Although that's probably not going to hurt if he's facing off Joe Biden.
Baseless guess on probability - 15%
Mitch "2 Short" Daniels
Upside - Big time cred on both sides of the aisle when it comes to reducing debt and governing well. Knows how to make the case for fiscal conservatism and debt reduction and also knows how to execute.
Downside - Too much wonk on one ticket when combined with Romney. Too much older white man on one ticket. Tom Cruise height.
Baseless guess on probability - 5%
Susana "The Prosector" Martinez
Upside - One word: Latina. Popular New Mexico governor will help Romney neutralize what will undoubtedly be a toxic liability on immigration with the Hispanic voting block. Her positions on the issue are actually largely in alignment with him and she would become the leading voice on immigration reform. Diversifies the ticket geographically. She's very smart and accomplished. Three-time DA. Good centrist cred as well - switched to Repub from Dem in the 90s. As a Univ of Oklahoma law grad she might score Babs vote for the Romney ticket. Probably delivers a state that went to Obama in 2008. During her career as a successful prosecutor she also became a public advocate for children's rights - cld add a nice touch of compassion to the ticket.
Downside - not much of a national profile.
Baseless guess on probability - 15%
Bobby "Tonto" Jindal
Upside - Damn smart, impeccable record of good governance achieving reform in turning around the LA economy. Great background in health care (actually wrote his Oxford thesis on the topic) and will bring wonky cred to that national debate. Great problem-solving pedigree (was with McKinsey before he kicked off his political career). Diversifies the ticket both ethnically, geographically and religiously - but w/o defaulting to the lowest common denominator in the party.
Downside - Has looked a bit stage-shy when he comes in front of the cameras and won't necessarily be the most effective attack ally, which is part of what you ideally get from a VP.
Baseless guess on probability - 10%
Condaleeza "Two For One" Rice
Upside - Plays piano like a damn banshee. Neutralizes the onslaught of not-so-subtle race tactics that will undoubtedly come from Obama friends and surrogates. Brings foreign policy background into the White House.
Downside - Like it or not, she needlessly brings Rumsfeld, Bush and Cheney onto the ticket. That will be a general election liability and she probably doesn't have enough upside to justify the downside.
Baseless guess on probability - 5%.
Bob McDonnell
Upside - Popular among conservatives and could mobilize the base. Military veteran and governor of a major swing state.
Downside - Not that nationally visible, so socially conservative that it cld be a liability in competing for socially liberal centrists who are fiscal conservatives.
Baseless guess on probability - 5%
Mike "Gladhands" Huckabee
Upside - Unlikely but would create a kind of "Republican Unity Ticket" that would get out any evangelical voters who might be tempted to stay home. Brings some regular-guy charisma onto the ticket and adds a southern state geopolitical dimension.
Downside - He is currently a TV personality which might not transition easily in voters minds right now. He and Romney don't have a friendly history with each other.
Baseless guess on probability - 2.5%
Paul "Right Stuff" Ryan
Upside - The most serious contributor to the national discussion on entitlement reform, bar none. Super smart and communicates lucidly but w/o the stupid rhetorical poses that taint a lot of the public debate. Will play well in Midwestern swing states.
Downside - Was unfairly made out to be a harsh partisan figure by the Dem/media reaction to his budget. It's probably too close to the fallout from that for him to be the choice.
Baseless guess on probability - 2.5%
My personal preference is reflected in the percentages:
I'd say - 1. Rubio 2. Martinez. 3. Jindal. 4. Christie - I really think the Republican party needs to get a minority on the ticket this year and luckily there are three minorities who would be far from mere cosmetic choices.
Postscript: There are obviously a few others who could be considered - Tim Pawlenty, Nikki Haley and Jon Thune all come to mind. Haley is the only one of those I can see being seriously considered.
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