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is not nearly the mess many would like it to be. In fact this year was pretty dang decent given the various problems the program faced and dealt with. However, the downside is that BYU's ceiling might not be as high as many in this fanbase would like it to be and much like I once warned that the whining about Robert Anae's lack of "unpredictability" sounded much to me like whining of yesteryear about Norm Chow's lack of "unpredictability" it might just be that BYU is about as good as it can get. I think the whining about Mendenhall is an indicator of how little much of this fanbase understands about how much worse it can get. For example we could be like many programs in college football who don't beat every stinking team that we should. Coaches who consistenly beat everyone that they should are pretty good coaches.
Mendenhall's biggest issues, IMO, are that his two biggest comparison points are that he is compared to two of the best coaches in college football in Kyle Whittingham and Gary Patterson, or at least one that should be included in the conversation and one who is not too far from being included. In some ways Mendenhall reminds me a bit of Fisher DeBerry, pegging his program's potential but just being consistently compared to a program with a great coach and a higher ceiling, when he couldn't beat Lavell Edwards for so long. That is not to say that the one annual meltdown that has happened since 2008 (Utah - 08, FSU - 09, USU - 10, Utah -11) are good. Nor the fact that it has happened against the Utes twice helps. Not playing real clean against TCU this year was miserably frustrating. However, this was still a relatively young team that I think has a real bright future and will be a good team next year. I think BYU is looking at a good chance of another solid 11-2 year with a couple of wins over top 30ish clubs and potentially a couple of losses to teams of that caliber. With some really good breaks they could do better and I would not write that option off. I don't think Mendenhall is a legendary coach but he is much closer to that option than he is anything else and the whining about him is certainly not commensurate with what he has shown in the 7 years he has been BYU's HC.
I think Brandon Doman will be fine as an OC, but it is going to take a bit more time. I think the offense is better prepared next year to hide his growing pains than it was this year. I was hoping that Jake Heaps was becoming a qb that could do that but obviously he was not. I am confident that Doman will look a hell of a lot smarter next year than this past year and will start to do well, on his own merits, starting in 2013. From a coaching perspective I think the change in OC was the most to blame of any coaching mistake for the qb debacle that will forever mar 2012. The 2nd biggest coaching mistake was any coddling that Jake Heaps recieved and that coddling might or might not have had some influence on the decision to replace Anae. It was not consistent with Mendenhall's rhetoric of earning it and while one might not like Mendnehall's rhetoric, one should agree that as a leader he must be consistent. Some might not like Ogletree but the reality is if BYU is ever going to reach that unreachable ceiling it is going to need overachievers. Shay Muirbrook was not a 5 star superstar.
The Jake Heaps story hurts in so many directions. The divulged personal trauma a 20 year old kid is enduring is sad enough. The blow up of our dreams that BYU might finally reach and break that ceiling is hard to take. It is compounded by the fact that BYU has two of the its 5 best receivers in its history on the team as underclassmen at the same time and without a qb who can effectively maximize the utilization. I feel the pain. However, I think a great deal of this story going south is outside of the coaches control. I believe they made some mistakes but I still think even if they had not made their mistakes this story likely would not have ended well for BYU. I think the lesson Mendenhall will take is nobody will ever even get a sniff of coddled treatment from him even if they are a sure hit recruit. Jake fell apart folks and perhaps it was for reasons outside his control as well, but I just don't think we were ever going to see the dream we had after the New Mexico Bowl come to fruition. However, because the program is stronger than many want to believe it was able to endure this horrific experience and still put a good product on the field and even with a qb who isn't that great of a thrower I still maintain we have a legit top 25 club next year.
Riley Nelson is not a good passing qb. I think he is better than what we saw against Tulsa, but I don't think I have ever seen a set of BYU receivers who can so easily get so far open but be missed so routinely? Saying that, I think these kids have the ability to get YAC so I think BYU can shorten up its historical mid-range passing game and allow Ross and the Hoffman to get YAC. In fact I think they already have in some cases. Riley's other components as a qb (ability to run the ball, fearless play/leadership and uhhhh LUCK) should be enough given the playmaking ability of his receivers to effectively move the ball enough for BYU to win every game they play next year - given the defense BYU will have. Now, I don't expect that to happen and prior history indicates we will have to endure one maddening meltdown and probability gives us a 50% chance that will be against Utah. However, with an improved Mike Alisa and with hopefully a reborn Juice (and potentially a decent Hine or Williams) along with Iona Pritchard, and a healthy Dick Wilson and Mahina back at TE BYU will have plenty of weapons. Give that group a Steve Young or Jimbo Mac they could be a legit top 10 club and make that ceiling busting run, but to go into next year only defining success as that option is emotional suicide.
I still maintain that BYU also needs to fix its home scheduling in a hurry. 2012 is ok, but very front loaded. My understanding is 2013 is also tentatively pretty good - especially if the rivalry continues. But if there is not light at the end of this independence tunnell by then, ticket sales and interest will begin to wane. I am all in for next year because the home schedule looks decent enough and because my understanding is the year after should be great but after that there needs to be clear resolution where this train is heading.
The ultimate reason for excitement next year is this.....TCU IS NOT ON THE SCHEDULE!
Mendenhall's biggest issues, IMO, are that his two biggest comparison points are that he is compared to two of the best coaches in college football in Kyle Whittingham and Gary Patterson, or at least one that should be included in the conversation and one who is not too far from being included. In some ways Mendenhall reminds me a bit of Fisher DeBerry, pegging his program's potential but just being consistently compared to a program with a great coach and a higher ceiling, when he couldn't beat Lavell Edwards for so long. That is not to say that the one annual meltdown that has happened since 2008 (Utah - 08, FSU - 09, USU - 10, Utah -11) are good. Nor the fact that it has happened against the Utes twice helps. Not playing real clean against TCU this year was miserably frustrating. However, this was still a relatively young team that I think has a real bright future and will be a good team next year. I think BYU is looking at a good chance of another solid 11-2 year with a couple of wins over top 30ish clubs and potentially a couple of losses to teams of that caliber. With some really good breaks they could do better and I would not write that option off. I don't think Mendenhall is a legendary coach but he is much closer to that option than he is anything else and the whining about him is certainly not commensurate with what he has shown in the 7 years he has been BYU's HC.
I think Brandon Doman will be fine as an OC, but it is going to take a bit more time. I think the offense is better prepared next year to hide his growing pains than it was this year. I was hoping that Jake Heaps was becoming a qb that could do that but obviously he was not. I am confident that Doman will look a hell of a lot smarter next year than this past year and will start to do well, on his own merits, starting in 2013. From a coaching perspective I think the change in OC was the most to blame of any coaching mistake for the qb debacle that will forever mar 2012. The 2nd biggest coaching mistake was any coddling that Jake Heaps recieved and that coddling might or might not have had some influence on the decision to replace Anae. It was not consistent with Mendenhall's rhetoric of earning it and while one might not like Mendnehall's rhetoric, one should agree that as a leader he must be consistent. Some might not like Ogletree but the reality is if BYU is ever going to reach that unreachable ceiling it is going to need overachievers. Shay Muirbrook was not a 5 star superstar.
The Jake Heaps story hurts in so many directions. The divulged personal trauma a 20 year old kid is enduring is sad enough. The blow up of our dreams that BYU might finally reach and break that ceiling is hard to take. It is compounded by the fact that BYU has two of the its 5 best receivers in its history on the team as underclassmen at the same time and without a qb who can effectively maximize the utilization. I feel the pain. However, I think a great deal of this story going south is outside of the coaches control. I believe they made some mistakes but I still think even if they had not made their mistakes this story likely would not have ended well for BYU. I think the lesson Mendenhall will take is nobody will ever even get a sniff of coddled treatment from him even if they are a sure hit recruit. Jake fell apart folks and perhaps it was for reasons outside his control as well, but I just don't think we were ever going to see the dream we had after the New Mexico Bowl come to fruition. However, because the program is stronger than many want to believe it was able to endure this horrific experience and still put a good product on the field and even with a qb who isn't that great of a thrower I still maintain we have a legit top 25 club next year.
Riley Nelson is not a good passing qb. I think he is better than what we saw against Tulsa, but I don't think I have ever seen a set of BYU receivers who can so easily get so far open but be missed so routinely? Saying that, I think these kids have the ability to get YAC so I think BYU can shorten up its historical mid-range passing game and allow Ross and the Hoffman to get YAC. In fact I think they already have in some cases. Riley's other components as a qb (ability to run the ball, fearless play/leadership and uhhhh LUCK) should be enough given the playmaking ability of his receivers to effectively move the ball enough for BYU to win every game they play next year - given the defense BYU will have. Now, I don't expect that to happen and prior history indicates we will have to endure one maddening meltdown and probability gives us a 50% chance that will be against Utah. However, with an improved Mike Alisa and with hopefully a reborn Juice (and potentially a decent Hine or Williams) along with Iona Pritchard, and a healthy Dick Wilson and Mahina back at TE BYU will have plenty of weapons. Give that group a Steve Young or Jimbo Mac they could be a legit top 10 club and make that ceiling busting run, but to go into next year only defining success as that option is emotional suicide.
I still maintain that BYU also needs to fix its home scheduling in a hurry. 2012 is ok, but very front loaded. My understanding is 2013 is also tentatively pretty good - especially if the rivalry continues. But if there is not light at the end of this independence tunnell by then, ticket sales and interest will begin to wane. I am all in for next year because the home schedule looks decent enough and because my understanding is the year after should be great but after that there needs to be clear resolution where this train is heading.
The ultimate reason for excitement next year is this.....TCU IS NOT ON THE SCHEDULE!
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