Ruminations on super conferences.

[statman]

first of all, those who are saying 4 16-team conferences will determine the future of the NCAA football are wrong. It'll be ultimately be 5 leagues. Some may choose to stay at 12 teams allowing more flexibility to schedule 4 OOC games and at least somewhat control their destiny through separate contracts for OOC games and for league games not picked up by their tv corporate sponsors.

Bottom line, 4 leagues of 16 doesn't include all the current BCS teams. Three teams are going to be excluded from the 4 16-super conferences model. And they're not going to like it. And their claims of loss from anti-competitive collusion will be pretty solid - and will sound unfair to most Americans. Lawsuits will be the headache that kill the 4X16 paradigm.

But going to FIVE 16-team conferences means that CFB elite are opening their doors to let a few (13) of the most worthy programs into the coveted fold. Those 13 will fillout the needed slots from the five leagues that reemerge as superconferences -

The ACC (12) adds UCONN, Rutgers, Syracuse from the Big(L)East & East Carolina from CUSA.

The SEC (12) adds TAMU from Big 12, SFU & Louisville from Big(L)East, & Southern Miss/or Central Florida from CUSA.

The Big XII (10) (loses TAMU to the SEC, but adds TCU from the Big(L)East, BYU & ND from Indy, Memphis, Tulsa & Houston from CUSA, and AFA and Tulsa from from the MWC.

The Big Ten (12) adds Pitt, WVA, Cincinnati, from the Big(L)East and Marshall from CUSA.

That leaves only the PAC-12 - and their options aren't pretty. They'll need four teams, and they'll pick four teams from the following list - UNLV, UNR, USU, SJSU, FSU, SDSU, UNM, & BSU. They'd want to limit more Cali schools, and they like pairs, so UNLV & UNR are the first picks. USU & BSU - ones a decent school, but lousy at sports (but basketball). The other is a lousy school, good at football, but not great at anything else. But at least they're not Mormons or from California...

the option to go to FIVE 16-team super conferences makes more sense than limiting it to 4 conferences, since it avoids the most serious lawsuit challenges that would come from realignment. IT also allows the super conferences to blend out some of the talent and ensure a few wins in the schedule of the current BCS type teams.

[Do Not Want!]

It still sucks though because what happens when another team becomes the next Boise State? We're back to the same old scenario where a deserving team can't break into the big leagues. If all the conferences are maxed at 16 teams and they can't kick anybody out, there's even less chance for someone to move up. At least currently when a team gets poached from a BCS conference, it usually creates an opening for somebody.

The only way it's remotely fair is if there's some mechanism for booting a team when another is more qualified for the spot.

[Borg]

The English soccer system needs to be incorporated. The two worst teams in a bcs leage goes down to the FBS leagues. The two best FBS teams go 'up' into a BCS league.

And so the rotation goes. You "work" your way into the BCS leagues. If you don't cut it in the big boy leagues...you don't belong and out you go...to work your way back in by "winning".

I've lined it out a long time ago...and it would work like a charm. Only if....

[jay santos]

The NCAA needs to step in and regulate. Sign global TV contracts, supervise bowl/post season system. Get the conferences back down to a number where everyone plays each other.

[All-American]

The NCAA needs to step in and regulate. Sign global TV contracts, supervise bowl/post season system. Get the conferences back down to a number where everyone plays each other.

The NCAA tried taking charge of TV contracts before. Oklahoma sued and the NCAA lost.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

The NCAA tried taking charge of TV contracts before. Oklahoma sued and the NCAA lost.

Most Americans like the free market, or at least a moderated version of the free market. I don't see people lining up to socialize the business of college football. If CFB is a big enough business to be taken over and made "fair" what industry isn't?

[SoCalCoug]

The NCAA needs to step in and regulate. Sign global TV contracts, supervise bowl/post season system. Get the conferences back down to a number where everyone plays each other.

That's a very socialistic system you're advocating.

[Surfah]

That's a very socialistic system you're advocating.

I think that's what HFN was saying.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

I think that's what HFN was saying.

SoCal probably said it better. I'm used to that.

[jay santos]

That's a very socialistic system you're advocating.

The NCAA does it for everything at championship level. NCAA BB tournament, baseball tournament, etc. I don't think it's a big step to take over regular season. Some things work better more highly regulated. This is an example.

[All-American]

The NCAA does it for everything at championship level. NCAA BB tournament, baseball tournament, etc. I don't think it's a big step to take over regular season. Some things work better more highly regulated. This is an example.

And actually, that's one of the points that was made in the lawsuit. Oklahoma claimed that what the NCAA was doing was a per se antitrust violation, a behavior so typically anti-competitive that a judge could safely declare it illegal without further investigation. The Court disagreed, noting that with college sports, unlike most business ventures, there needs to be a degree of cooperation and coordination between the competitors. Even though it found that it was required to conduct a more thorough investigation, however, the Court found that in this case, the conduct of the NCAA (restricting the number of television appearances any school could make in a season and sharing revenue among the member schools) was anticompetitive and that the restrictions violated the Sherman Act.

This case has everything to do with what's happened in college football since then.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_v....v._of_Oklahoma

Of course, the ends and means which the NCAA was pursuing in that case was pretty troubling from an antitrust perspective. It wouldn't be hard to come up with a procompetition argument for intervention now.

[OrangeUte]

So, either the NCAA gets loaded off the negotiations with networks, or the schools and the conferences do. The latter makes more sense, however it still leads to a system that doesn't result in fairness. I want to read Whizzer White's dissent but don't have time right now. He seemed More focused on cfb being about student athletes than on a free market analysis. Interesting.

[Uncle Ted]

The Big XII (10) (loses TAMU to the SEC, but adds TCU from the Big(L)East, BYU & ND from Indy, Memphis, Tulsa & Houston from CUSA, and AFA and Tulsa from from the MWC.

How do you like them apples?