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Do not submit a prediction score in this thread. It just explains the contest.
Each week a score of 100 is possible. Here is the formula:
Points = 20*winner +
40*winner*f(1-abs(MOVD)) if abs(MOVD) <= 24, 0 otherwise +
40*g(1-d(predicted,actual)) if d( , ) <= 28, 0 otherwise
Winner = 1 if the winning team is correctly picked, 0 otherwise
MOVD = margin of victory diferrential: Predicted (MOV) - Actual(MOV)
d( , ) = Euclidean distance
f(), g() are monotically decreasing functions
Format for scores:
---------------------
BYU|X
OPPONENT|Y
---------------------
First line of the post must be BYU and then the numerical score prediction. The second line must be the opponent name and the numerical score prediction. The data are collected by a little script I wrote so if you make things non-standard it makes it more likely that your prediction doesn't get counted. You must use the pipe delimiter (not a lower case "l", a "|") ... the script scans for the delimiter. The script doesn't care that you prefer a different delimiter. Don't add any other punctation. I am not going to check time stamps for predictions so your on your honor for not posting a prediction ex post.
FAQ
-----
1. Wow, it a seems like the formula gives very heavy weight to predicting the correct winner?
A. Yes it does.
2. What is the optimal prediction score strategy?
2. How will a tie breaker be determined?
A. There is no tie breaker provision
3. Where is the Utah contest?
A. Yeah, do the same format for the Utah contest, etc, etc.
4. Is there a cool prize?
A. Based on history, the probability of a cool prize is very low.
5. What happens if I post multiple predictions?
A. The script only stores your last prediction you post in a thread.
6. Can I post non prediction content or commentary on my predictions in the prediction threads?
A. You can post other commentary in the threads. Just make sure the predictions come in the form of
BYU|X
OPP|Y
or
Utah|X
OPP|Y
as the first two lines of the post.
7. Why do you run the contest if you hold it in such disdain?
A. I don't know but one possible explanation is that I am consubstantial with Creekster and Leb.
8. I keep looking at that refernce to "Euclidean distance" and assume that somewhere, someone is reading this and laughing so hard that a couple of pens fall out of their pocket protector. But, in fact, I have no idea if it is a joke or not. Is it a Joke?
No:
9. Who is your favorite Jane Austen Character?
A. Mr. Woodhouse
10. Is George Wickham worse than Frank Churchill?
No
11 Why don't you make the script more general or flexible?
A. Lazy
12. Who won last year?
Parrot Head has won everyone year of the contest's existence
http://cougaruteforum.com/showthread.php?t=37126
http://cougaruteforum.com/showthread.php?t=15854
and, Eddie Jones/Moline/East Moline won the Utah Prediction contest:
http://cougaruteforum.com/showthread.php?t=37282
* I reserve the right to change the formula if it gives us obviously weird results or a strange sorting.
Each week a score of 100 is possible. Here is the formula:
Points = 20*winner +
40*winner*f(1-abs(MOVD)) if abs(MOVD) <= 24, 0 otherwise +
40*g(1-d(predicted,actual)) if d( , ) <= 28, 0 otherwise
Winner = 1 if the winning team is correctly picked, 0 otherwise
MOVD = margin of victory diferrential: Predicted (MOV) - Actual(MOV)
d( , ) = Euclidean distance
f(), g() are monotically decreasing functions
Format for scores:
---------------------
BYU|X
OPPONENT|Y
---------------------
First line of the post must be BYU and then the numerical score prediction. The second line must be the opponent name and the numerical score prediction. The data are collected by a little script I wrote so if you make things non-standard it makes it more likely that your prediction doesn't get counted. You must use the pipe delimiter (not a lower case "l", a "|") ... the script scans for the delimiter. The script doesn't care that you prefer a different delimiter. Don't add any other punctation. I am not going to check time stamps for predictions so your on your honor for not posting a prediction ex post.
FAQ
-----
1. Wow, it a seems like the formula gives very heavy weight to predicting the correct winner?
A. Yes it does.
2. What is the optimal prediction score strategy?
2. How will a tie breaker be determined?
A. There is no tie breaker provision
3. Where is the Utah contest?
A. Yeah, do the same format for the Utah contest, etc, etc.
4. Is there a cool prize?
A. Based on history, the probability of a cool prize is very low.
5. What happens if I post multiple predictions?
A. The script only stores your last prediction you post in a thread.
6. Can I post non prediction content or commentary on my predictions in the prediction threads?
A. You can post other commentary in the threads. Just make sure the predictions come in the form of
BYU|X
OPP|Y
or
Utah|X
OPP|Y
as the first two lines of the post.
7. Why do you run the contest if you hold it in such disdain?
A. I don't know but one possible explanation is that I am consubstantial with Creekster and Leb.
8. I keep looking at that refernce to "Euclidean distance" and assume that somewhere, someone is reading this and laughing so hard that a couple of pens fall out of their pocket protector. But, in fact, I have no idea if it is a joke or not. Is it a Joke?
No:
9. Who is your favorite Jane Austen Character?
A. Mr. Woodhouse
10. Is George Wickham worse than Frank Churchill?
No
11 Why don't you make the script more general or flexible?
A. Lazy
12. Who won last year?
Parrot Head has won everyone year of the contest's existence
http://cougaruteforum.com/showthread.php?t=37126
http://cougaruteforum.com/showthread.php?t=15854
and, Eddie Jones/Moline/East Moline won the Utah Prediction contest:
http://cougaruteforum.com/showthread.php?t=37282
* I reserve the right to change the formula if it gives us obviously weird results or a strange sorting.
... :confused2: ... 
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