BYU Football wins how many games this year?

[Sizzle]

With Media Day looming this week, and NCAA 12's impending release on Tuesday, CFB season is just around the corner. So, let's talk BYU and their first season as an independent, and what expectations are.

Looking at the schedule right now with what we know, here is how I look at the schedule. I think it breaks down into thirds nicely. There is no question that the first third of the season is the toughest 4-game stretch with no game in the series a "gimmie". While I think there is a chance BYU "could" win all 4 games, I think the realistic "high" projection would put them at 3-1 after the first stretch, with 2-2 or 1-3 most likely. In terms of "winnable" games, I think UCF is the 'easiest' on paper (at least it would appear that way) followed by Utah (by nature that it is at home), Ole Miss (whom I think has a lot of questions, though BYU has never played well in the South) and Texas (who is definitely beatable, though I'd feel better if the game were week 1 instead of week 2).

The next stretch includes 3 games that BYU absolutely should win (Utah State, San Jose State and Idaho State) and one game (at Oregon State) that they'll have a chance to win. I'll admit to now knowing how good OSU should be this year, but given that BYU should be decently rested when heading up to Oregon State, I think 3-1 or 4-0 out of this third of their schedule is not out of the question.

The last stretch again really includes one tough game (v. TCU in Dallas on a short week) two games that BYU shouldn't have any problems in (New Mexico St and Idaho) and one game that BYU should win, but given the history of playing in the Islands, I can't feel good about counting this one as a gimmie... yet. Worst case would put this at 2-2, likely, IMO, is 3-1, with again, 4-0 not out of the question.

So, IMO, a feasible worst case scenario puts BYU in the 7-5 range if things don't go well for the Cougs, 8-4 as probably the most likely, and 9-3 or 10-2 if things really go well.

@ Ole Miss (win)
@ Texas (loss)
v. Utah (win)
v. UCF (win)
v. Utah State (win)
v. SJSU (win)
@ Oregon State (loss)
v. Idaho State (win)
v. TCU (in Dallas) (loss)
v. Idaho (win)
v. New Mexico State (win)
@ Hawaii (loss)

So, I guess I'm going with 8-4. I could easily see Hawaii and Ole Miss switching results. But that's my best guess 8 weeks before the season starts without injuries, Bowl Game, etc. 7-5 seems a little bit low, 9-3 seems a little bit too high (though the schedule sure has enough weak teams on it that 9-3 isn't out of the question) so I guess 8-4 seems just about right.

[Sizzle]

Also, let me add, that I think the team in general gets a lot better as the year moves on. I think 2012 could be a very fun/special season. We return enough quality offensive linemen, as well as skill position players on offense, that we should be able to score with anybody. Anytime you can bring back a QB with two seasons worth of starts and 3+ 3-year starters on the offensive line, you should win quite a few games.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

I voted 9. IMO you flip the first two games, Texas isn't good and I think BYU wins that one after losing the first week.

Then I agree with you except Oregon State. I have a hard time seeing OSU win more than 3-5 games this year. They are going to be talent void, and James Rodgers isn't going to be healthy, their D is going to be bad at best. I will be very disappointed if BYU doesn't win that game.

[TripletDaddy]

I'm going with 9 or 10

[DapperDan]

My heart says 9 or 10 wins, but I have to keep reminding myself how inexperienced so many of the key players and coaches are and that bad things tend to happen while experience is gained. Plus we're still high on beating a bunch of cream puffs to finish the season. Therefor my brain says tone it down to 8 wins, but no worse than 7.

I hope my brain is wrong.

[USUC]

My heart says 9 or 10 wins, but I have to keep reminding myself how inexperienced so many of the key players and coaches are and that bad things tend to happen while experience is gained. Plus we're still high on beating a bunch of cream puffs to finish the season. Therefor my brain says tone it down to 8 wins, but no worse than 7.

I hope my brain is wrong.

+1

I think there will be a learning curve with the new coaches. The secondary scares the hell out of me (although I don't think they get truly tested until Utah assuming Wynn gets his mojo back). I'm not quite sold on the D line either. I think BYU goes 8 - 4 maybe 9 - 3.

[ERCougar]

10.
It's not very rational, but 9-3 would feel disappointing to me.

[Goatnapper'96]

I think BYU is going to have a very good defense. In fact I think it will be as good as the defense in 2007.

I don't think the offense will be like 2006 but it will be good. I think that Heaps will perform better against better defenses (i.e. Utah and TCU) than Hall did.

I think the two games in Texas are the most likely games for BYU to lose, so I am in the camp that doesn't think 10-11 wins is out of the question and I would be surprised with less than 8. I think there is enough experience that BYU will not lose any games that they shouldn't. I don't see any buzzsaw types of games (such as the Tulsa debacle in 2007), but I do see some games where they might get beat because the opponent just has more talent.

I am going with 10-2 with losses to Texas and TCU. I could see BYU losing at Ole Miss like they did against U of A in 2006, but it would surprise me. I like BYU over Utah and UCF at home. I think OSU is in for a struggle year and by then BYU will be hitting its stride. I am not afeart of Hawaii like many - that strikes me as one of those games BYU should win and I believe they will that late in the season. I think Mendenhall will have his team focussed. TCU will be a huge game but I don't think this team is better than 10 wins with this schedule so I think they lose that one.

[Paperback Writer]

I agree with Gaotnapper - BYU most likely won't win either game in the Lone Star state. Winning against Hawaii in the islands will not be easy but I still like BYU and am going with 10 wins.

Also like BYU's chances against Ole Miss. Ole Miss went 1-7 in the SEC last year and 4-8 overall with wins at Tulane (4-8), Fresno St. (8-5), Kentucky (6-7), and Lou-Lafayette (3-9). I'm not impressed. They also got upset in their opener last year at home against non-IA Jacksonville St. so I'm thinking history repeats itself when BYU comes to Oxford.

I can't believe I'm defending the Longhorns but Texas is not "a bad team". They are very talented but played a lot of "bad football" last year. Maybe if BYU played Texas after OU has their way with them in the RRS and the Horns then lie down again. But that early in the season, Texas still has everything to play for and the game is in Austin. The talent level between BYU and Texas is not that close.

If the TCU game were in Provo, I'd probably pick BYU in an upset because that's my logic behind picking BYU over Utah as that game is in Provo. But neither of the past two BYU-TCU games have been close so it's more difficult to predict the upset.

[Coach McGuirk]

I see 7 is the bottom and a bit disappointing, 8 would be hollow as we would have lost our 4 toughest games but an 8 win season is ok by me, 9 would be a totally satisfying experience. 10+ would be tremendous.

[Clark Addison]

I voted 9, which is also right around the over/under for what I would consider a "good" season (which can change based on various factors such as injuries, opponents' success, etc.). If BYU wins 8 this year, I probably won't be happy. If they win 9, I will consider it a good, but certainly not great season, 10 or more makes it a very good season.

[byu71]

I voted 9, which is also right around the over/under for what I would consider a "good" season (which can change based on various factors such as injuries, opponents' success, etc.). If BYU wins 8 this year, I probably won't be happy. If they win 9, I will consider it a good, but certainly not great season, 10 or more makes it a very good season.

I am with you. 10 or 11 win season will be impressive. 8-9 will be OK, but I won't be out there bragging about the top notch team we have when you look at who we have on the schedule. 7 wins and I won't ever listen to any hype ever, ever, ever again.

[Uncle Ted]

I agree with Gaotnapper - BYU most likely won't win either game in the Lone Star state. Winning against Hawaii in the islands will not be easy but I still like BYU and am going with 10 wins.

Also like BYU's chances against Ole Miss. Ole Miss went 1-7 in the SEC last year and 4-8 overall with wins at Tulane (4-8), Fresno St. (8-5), Kentucky (6-7), and Lou-Lafayette (3-9). I'm not impressed. They also got upset in their opener last year at home against non-IA Jacksonville St. so I'm thinking history repeats itself when BYU comes to Oxford.

I can't believe I'm defending the Longhorns but Texas is not "a bad team". They are very talented but played a lot of "bad football" last year. Maybe if BYU played Texas after OU has their way with them in the RRS and the Horns then lie down again. But that early in the season, Texas still has everything to play for and the game is in Austin. The talent level between BYU and Texas is not that close.

If the TCU game were in Provo, I'd probably pick BYU in an upset because that's my logic behind picking BYU over Utah as that game is in Provo. But neither of the past two BYU-TCU games have been close so it's more difficult to predict the upset.

Yes, given Texas' talent they have no reason to lose against BYU. Of course, I didn't think they had any reason to lose against UCLA last year. My money is still on Texas. BYU has a better chance, IMHO, against TCU. TCU has lost Dalton and three of their better receivers plus four of their starting core on the o-line. They still have Wesley running the ball. On the defense they have lost a lot of their defensive line as well but pretty strong still with their LBs.

[Surfah]

9 was my realistic vote. Anything less would be disappointing. Anything more is gravy.

[Paperback Writer]

Yes, given Texas' talent they have no reason to lose against BYU. Of course, I didn't think they had any reason to lose against UCLA last year. My money is still on Texas. BYU has a better chance, IMHO, against TCU. TCU has lost Dalton and three of their better receivers plus four of their starting core on the o-line. They still have Wesley running the ball. On the defense they have lost a lot of their defensive line as well but pretty strong still with their LBs.

You make a strong argument with TCU, I haven't really looked too deep on who is returning or will be new starters for either BYU or TCU; although I follow BYU a little closer (most of my time has been spent sizing up the Big 10). I did notice that neither BYU-TCU game that past two years was closer than 4 TDs and that usually marks a sizable gap - especially with a road game.

The UCLA-Texas game in 2010 was a shocker to say the least. Texas still looked like Texas until that game. But being a Nebraska fan, I see that game for what it really was - just another way to set Nebraska up for another Longhorn victory against the Huskers. UCLA beat Texas with a so-so dual threat QB in Kevin Prince. Just think what Nebraska will do to the Longhorns with a running QB who can take it to the house on any play in Taylor Martinez. UCLA beat Texas with 27 passing yards so Nebraska's inability to pass (or catch) will not be a factor. Texas lost to the Bruins at home, the Huskers have them in Lincoln.

Problem was, Texas didn't spot Nebraska 5 turnovers and had the speed to stop a Freshman running QB who had difficulty reading coverages and who threw to receivers with hands of stone. That all became crystal clear by the fourth quarter.

Anyway, perhaps BYU has a better chance against TCU and Texas than I'm giving them. They did defeat OU in Texas in 2009 and I didn't see that coming. But I don't expect Texas to tank again in 2011, the Horns are too talented. Although, they will still lose to OU and aTm.