Who will win the BCS Championship Game?

[scottie]

(poll)

[Blueintheface]

I voted but if there is a God this game will be cancelled.

[BoylenOver]

I'm kind of worried both offenses will look out of sync, considering it's been 37 days since either of them played.

Oregon needs LaMichael James to have a good day. When he gets running downhill between the tackles, everything else in Oregon's repetoire opens up. Ends crash down on zone reads; safeties cheat up; linebackers get caught with their eyes in the backfield. If Auburn finds a way to neutralize him, I'm not sure Thomas is good enough to beat them.

On defense, Oregon's best bet is to make Newton throw. His accuracy rate is nearing all-time highs, but IMO he's far more dangerous on the ground. And they have to be aggressive. They play their best pressing and collapsing the pocket.

I'm really looking forward to it. Roll Ducks Roll!!!

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

I voted but if there is a God this game will be cancelled.

Melodramatic much? Lol.

[CardiacCoug]

Oregon has a better defense and SEC teams aren't used to coming out West.

[BoylenOver]

I posted this on another board. If nothing else, it's long.

I rewatched Stanford-Oregon and Auburn-Alabama yesterday and this morning. Some thoughts:

-Auburn's secondary (safeties especially) are highly susceptible. Their front 7 (defensive line especially) is big, deep, and explosive. Nick Fairley had the good fortune of lining up against a kid making his first career start for the Tide, but he was beating double teams from the 2nd quarter on. He could really disrupt the Oregon ground game.

-Cam Newton leads a very efficient offense. They're lethal on 3rd and short, and Newton has the ability to consistently put them in good situations (the first 20-25 minutes against Alabama notwithstanding). Their two primary backs are a nice complement; Dyer is tough, while McCalebb is a speedster. Their receivers didn't have to make very many plays, but they did when they needed to.

-Oregon's defense got put in some bad situations, and that led to them being down 21-3. But down 31-24 in the 2nd half, they started playing more aggressively and disrupting Luck's rhythm. Despite giving up two trips to the red zone, they held the Cardinal scoreless and aided in the 28-point half for the offense (forcing two turnovers). They need Kenny Rowe and Brandon Bair to occupy blocks and neutralize the run game so guys like Spencer Paysinger and Casey Matthews can pursue and disrupt Newton.

-On paper, this is a pretty basic offense. They run four types of plays: zone read, option, screen, play action. Obviously there's more nuance to the plays they run, and considering the speed and talent on the field, knowing what's coming isn't necessarily enough. But if Stanford's first-half performance is any indication, the key is stopping the inside run. When James is finding creases and exploding into the secondary, everything else opens up. When your defensive tackles are clogging up those lanes, though, your ends and linebackers can focus on Thomas, and the secondary can focus on the pass.

Ultimately, the key for both teams is controlling the line of scrimmage. Both of these teams have the capability of airing it out if they need to, but operate at maximum efficiency when they can establish a ground game and pass off of that. And just like any QB, both Darron Thomas and Cam Newton are much less effective when defenders are applying pressure in the pocket.

Finally, I really enjoyed seeing these two teams face extreme adversity against really good teams and finish strong. It should make for a great game that comes down to the last few minutes.

[smokymountainrain]

I'm kind of worried both offenses will look out of sync, considering it's been 37 days since either of them played.

I think this is a real possibility, but that may just be offset by Chip Kelly and Gus Malzahn having an entire month to prepare some ridiculously creative offensive gameplans. I think the offenses will be okay, although it seems sometimes that whenever you expect a shootout in a game like this, it tends to be lower scoring and vice versa.

[Babs]

I'm surprised the vote is so overwhelmingly in favor of Oregon. That's not to say that Oregon can't win, just that it's far from a no-brainer. Historically the high octane offenses have disappointed in the title game, and the SEC has never lost a title game.

[BoylenOver]

I'm surprised the vote is so overwhelmingly in favor of Oregon. That's not to say that Oregon can't win, just that it's far from a no-brainer. Historically the high-powered offenses have disappointed in the title game, and the SEC has never lost one.

High-powered offenses disappoint in the title game because they run into top-10 defenses, generally from SEC teams.

Auburn's defense is the 2nd-worst to play for a BCS title (since 1999, behind 2000 Oklahoma). They were dead last in the SEC in passing defense (76th nationally) and 9th in total defense (55th nationally). Their run defense is very good, though.

[CardiacCoug]

I'm surprised the vote is so overwhelmingly in favor of Oregon. That's not to say that Oregon can't win, just that it's far from a no-brainer. Historically the high-powered offenses have disappointed in the title game, and the SEC has never lost one.

Ah, but the SEC isn't matchup up against the Sooners this year.

This board is now 50% a PAC-10 board -- I'm not surprised at the vote. And BYU basketball will be in the same conference as Portland next year, so there's that.

[Babs]

High-powered offenses disappoint in the title game because they run into top-10 defenses, generally from SEC teams.

Auburn's defense is the 2nd-worst to play for a BCS title (since 1999, behind 2000 Oklahoma). They were dead last in the SEC in passing defense (76th nationally) and 9th in total defense (55th nationally). Their run defense is very good, though.

yeah, it's true that Auburn hardly counts as an SEC team. Incidentally, didn't 2000 Oklahoma win that game?

[Babs]

This board is now 50% a PAC-10 board -- I'm not surprised at the vote.

True, but there's a difference between hoping a team will win and predicting it will. I hoped Oklahoma would run the table this year, but I wouldn't have predicted it.

[BoylenOver]

yeah, it's true that Auburn hardly counts as an SEC team. Incidentally, didn't 2000 Oklahoma win that game?

And they didn't give up any points.

But that means nothing tonight

[Green Monstah]

wow, I thought I'd be in the minority by picking Oregon. Go Ducks!

[Jeff Lebowski]

I'm surprised the vote is so overwhelmingly in favor of Oregon. That's not to say that Oregon can't win, just that it's far from a no-brainer. Historically the high octane offenses have disappointed in the title game, and the SEC has never lost a title game.

I am voting with my heart, not my head.