To K-Dog re: high school D (Tyler Haws) and beating team three times

[jay santos]

K-Dog: I saw a couple of your posts over the last few days I wanted to comment on.

1. On beating a team three times in a row. I like to test a lot of these theories, and usually they turn out to be myths. This year D1 teams played a common opponent 350 times. Of those 350, one team swept the first two games 103 times. Of those 103, the team that had won the first two won 70/103. I'll test to see if that is in line with the expected probability simply given the rankings or not. I think this goes against the commonly held belief that it's very difficult to beat a team three times in a row.

2. On Tyler Haws and playing defense in high school. High school basketball is very advanced these days compared to when I played. Most all man to man teams in high school teach the same modern method used in college and NBA where a perimeter defender forces his man to the sideline if he's in the middle, and to the baseline if he's on the wing. I teach my AAU team of 12 year olds this. And I notice many of the man to man teams we play against use the same defensive principles.

[KillerDog]

K-Dog: I saw a couple of your posts over the last few days I wanted to comment on.

1. On beating a team three times in a row. I like to test a lot of these theories, and usually they turn out to be myths. This year D1 teams played a common opponent 350 times. Of those 350, one team swept the first two games 103 times. Of those 103, the team that had won the first two won 70/103. I'll test to see if that is in line with the expected probability simply given the rankings or not. I think this goes against the commonly held belief that it's very difficult to beat a team three times in a row.

2. On Tyler Haws and playing defense in high school. High school basketball is very advanced these days compared to when I played. Most all man to man teams in high school teach the same modern method used in college and NBA where a perimeter defender forces his man to the sideline if he's in the middle, and to the baseline if he's on the wing. I teach my AAU team of 12 year olds this. And I notice many of the man to man teams we play against use the same defensive principles.

I've been informed by Lone Peak person that Lone Peak plays the same D that BYU plays. That does increase the chance the Haws will play as a freshman. Of course, he went on to tell me that Haws regularly drew the easiest assignment on D because they were using him for the bulk of the offensive production. This person said that, although athletic, Haws D could be a problem because he hadn't been asked to guard a high calibre player for extended periods.

On the win three in a year thing. I don't have any idea whether it is HARDER to win the third game. Theoretically it shouldn't be. I believe it is hard to win 3 games against a team equal in talent and coaching in the same year. The problem I see is that I keep saying the same thing and people keep telling me stuff about whether it's harder to win the third game or not. I don't really care about that. My point is that it is hard for two equal teams to have one be on the up side three times in the same year. I don't know how else I can say this.

On BYU losing to SDSU...I think they weren't penalized too heavily for the loss because SDSU had a good rpi and it is hard to beat the same team 3 times in a season if the teams are relatively equal.

[jay santos]

I've been informed by Lone Peak person that Lone Peak plays the same D that BYU plays. That does increase the chance the Haws will play as a freshman. Of course, he went on to tell me that Haws regularly drew the easiest assignment on D because they were using him for the bulk of the offensive production. This person said that, although athletic, Haws D could be a problem because he hadn't been asked to guard a high calibre player for extended periods.

On the win three in a year thing. I don't have any idea whether it is HARDER to win the third game. Theoretically it shouldn't be. I believe it is hard to win 3 games against a team equal in talent and coaching in the same year. The problem I see is that I keep saying the same thing and people keep telling me stuff about whether it's harder to win the third game or not. I don't really care about that. My point is that it is hard for two equal teams to have one be on the up side three times in the same year. I don't know how else I can say this.

On BYU losing to SDSU...I think they weren't penalized too heavily for the loss because SDSU had a good rpi and it is hard to beat the same team 3 times in a season if the teams are relatively equal.

On Tyler Haws' defense again, I don't know much about him. From what little I've seen he appears to be very athletic. If a kid has reasonable BB IQ, it depends on their athleticism especially foot quickness whether or not they'll be able to defend well right away as a frosh.

Looking at our past freshman and ability to defend on the perimeter (not post):
Abouo: so-so defender lack of foot speed being the issue
Harstock: not great due to foot speed
Collinsworth: very good compared at his position due to athleticism and maybe good coaching in high school
Loyd: above average due to athleticism hampered a little by BB IQ
Fredette: not great due to athleticism and foot speed issues
Emery: fantastic
Tavernair: not great due to quickness
Cummard: very good due to quickness but hampered by strength

I look at almost all these guys and see that it's just a function of athleticism.

I'm optimistic about Haws being able to contribute right away.

[KillerDog]

On Tyler Haws' defense again, I don't know much about him. From what little I've seen he appears to be very athletic. If a kid has reasonable BB IQ, it depends on their athleticism especially foot quickness whether or not they'll be able to defend well right away as a frosh.

Looking at our past freshman and ability to defend on the perimeter (not post):
Abouo: so-so defender lack of foot speed being the issue
Harstock: not great due to foot speed
Collinsworth: very good compared at his position due to athleticism and maybe good coaching in high school
Loyd: above average due to athleticism hampered a little by BB IQ
Fredette: not great due to athleticism and foot speed issues
Emery: fantastic
Tavernair: not great due to quickness
Cummard: very good due to quickness but hampered by strength

I look at almost all these guys and see that it's just a function of athleticism.

I'm optimistic about Haws being able to contribute right away.

If it is based on athleticism, he'll be fine. I think there is more of a jump to defending in college. Dealing with better screens, knowing when to bump and how much, playing better athletes and more complex game planning. I expect him to be much more like JT and Jimmer their freshmen years than like Emery and Cummard. I also think his ability to score and our need for a 6th man hot hand could play into the equation.