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Overview
In what is the game of the year in the MWC, Utah(8-0), ranked 5th in the BCS, takes on TCU(9-0), ranked 3rd in the BCS. The Horned Frogs are on a roll, dominating the competition in the MWC by a cumulative score 189-16, surrendering just 2 touchdowns in 5 conference games. They are coming off of a 48-6 shellacking of UNLV in Las Vegas last week.
Utah survived a close game in Colorado Springs against Air Force 28-23 with some big 4th down stops by the defense. The Utes dominated the time of possession 36:20-23:40 and coming up with 5 turnovers, a season high, in the win.
Utah’s Offense vs. TCU’s Defense
Passing Game
Two strengths clash here as the Horned Frogs are 1st nationally in passing yards allowed(119 yds/gm) and 4th nationally in Pass Efficiency Defense. The Utes are averaging 258.1 yards/gm and rank 4th nationally in Pass Efficiency Offense.
TCU is lead in the secondary by SS Colin Jones, who is in the running for several national awards. The Frogs play a 5 DB set and start seniors at 4 of the 5 slots. TCU has picked up 7 interceptions and have 20 sacks on the season, although the loss of DT Kelly Griffin to injury early in the Air Force game has slowed them as they have only collected 1 sack the last 2 games. DE Wayne Daniels took over for Larry Hughes and leads the team with 5.5 sacks.
Jordan Wynn turned in a ho-hum performance against the Fly Boys, showing some inconsistency over the season where he has alternated lights out performances against ISU and CSU, with below average games against Wyoming and AFA. The health of DeVonte Christopher is key for Utah. He did practice on Tuesday, but was wearing a knee brace. Christopher and Reggie Dunn are the 2 receivers with the speed to get separation against the TCU secondary. Utah needs to try to stretch the field to keep the safeties from crowding the box/disrupting the crossing patterns by Jereme Brooks and Luke Matthews.
The key for Utah is to keep the pressure off Wynn and allow the passing patterns time to develop. TCU was able to get to Wynn at will in last year’s game. LT John Cullen vs. Daniels is the matchup to watch.
Advantage TCU
Running Game
TCU ranks 9th nationally allowing 98.3 yards/gm. Sophomore LB Tanner Brock has stepped in and leads the team in tackles with 65. LB Tank Carder is 4th on the team in tackles, but is considered by many the leader of the defense. TCU has shown some weakness against runs between tackle (particularly against BYU and Oregon St.), but that weakness is minimal.
Utah continues to average a healthy 191.5 yards/game which ranks 29th nationally.
Matt Asiata had a strong game running inside against Air Force netting 95 yards on 26 carries. Eddie Wide complemented with 82 yards on 23 carries as the Utes appeared to make a concerted effort to dominate the clock against the Falcons.
The Utes missed Asiata’s inside running and pass protection last year against TCU and may see a higher percentage of the plays this game in what to this point has been a fairly even split in plays. Look for Asiata to run plenty of quick hitting plays between tackle. The delay’s and counters should take a back seat this week due to the team speed of the Horned Frog’s Defense.
Advantage Push
Utah’s Defense vs. TCU’s Offense
Passing Game
If there is a chink in the TCU armor, it is likely here. The Frogs average 214.8 yards a game(4th MWC, 60th nationally), but are 13th nationally in Pass Efficiency Offense. Andy Dalton is 143-217, for 209.4 avg, 16 TD’s and 5 Int’s. Watching several games this year, he does not seem as sharp passing as last year, and he seems to not play as well when pressured. TCU has a 3 pronged WR attack led by Jeremy Kerley 35-364-7 TD’s, Josh Boyce 25-395-4 TD’s, and Jimmy Young 16-247-2 TD’s.
Despite a subpar performance against Air Force, the Utah secondary continues to be highly ranked, allowing only 165 yds/game which places them 10th nationally. Utah will likely play plenty of Nickel coverage using Brandon Burton, Lamar Chapman, and Conroy Black to play plenty of man coverage. They have the speed to run with the TCU wideouts, but their success is dependent on the pass rush making Dalton throw earlier than planned or forcing him to throw on the run.
Success in the passing game for TCU is entirely dependent on the success of their running game and down and distance. If the average is 2nd and 7, 3 and 6, TCU’s passing game going to struggle. If you base the analysis solely on the personnel, the Utes have a very slim edge.
Slim Advantage Utah
Running Game
TCU touts one of the best rushing games in the nation at 270.9 yards a game(9th nationally), particularly when you consider that 3 of the teams above them are option attacks. Ed Wesley is the leader with 138-948-10 Td’s, followed by Matthew Tucker with 104-496-6 Td’s. Tucker is more of an inside runner and Wesley uses his elite speed to burn teams on the outside.
Utah’s front 7 met their toughest challenge to date against Air Force and held the Falcon’s 120 yards below their season average. The front four continued to show their dominance, but the linebacking corp had some of their deficiencies revealed, particularly lateral speed. You may see the Utes adapt some of TCU’s 4-2-5 look, bringing in Chapman or Greg Bird in for one of the LB’s. This will help with edge speed. Bird will likely play on more obvious running downs, and Chapman in passing situations.
In my opinion, the game hinges on the success that TCU will have running the ball on 1st and 2nd downs. If the Frogs end up in 2nd or 2rd and short, it will be a long day for the Ute defense. If the Utes can contain the run enough to force Andy Dalton to beat them with his arm, the day will belong to the Crimson and White
Advantage TCU
Special Teams
The game will feature 2 of the better special teams units in the nation. Shaky Smithson continues to be the leader nationally in punt return average, while Jeremy Kerley is 17th. Both punters are Ray Guy award semifinalists(Anson Kelton 41.5 yd average for TCU and Sean Sellwood 42.5 yard average for Utah). K Ross Evans is a perfect 6-6 on FG and 47-50 on XPA, but he has a few Rice-Eccles Stadium demons to exorcise from 2008 where he missed 2 short kicks. Joe Phillips missed his first FG of the year at AFA, a 43 yarder into the wind, but is 9-10 on FG and 47-48 on XPA.
Advantage-Push
Final Analysis
TCU is a 4 1/2 point favorite coming into the game. Utah has several intangibles on their side with the home crowd and playing at altitude. The Horned Frogs have played outside of Texas only twice this season, beating CSU in a so-so effort 27-0 and against UNLV where they won handily. They have only played 1 game where the outcome was in doubt in the 4th quarter(against Oregon St. in the opener). TCU is a front running team. They tend to dominate when they can get a big lead early, but their offense has struggled in games that are close.
Utah has no glaring weaknesses, but, on paper, appear to be a notch below TCU, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Utah’s offense is higher scoring, but totals fewer yards. This can be attributed almost completely to the return game that has let Utah’s Offense score on short fields multiple times this season.
I can’t wait to see this one in person. I see the Utes pulling off a minor upset.
Utah 20 TCU 16
In what is the game of the year in the MWC, Utah(8-0), ranked 5th in the BCS, takes on TCU(9-0), ranked 3rd in the BCS. The Horned Frogs are on a roll, dominating the competition in the MWC by a cumulative score 189-16, surrendering just 2 touchdowns in 5 conference games. They are coming off of a 48-6 shellacking of UNLV in Las Vegas last week.
Utah survived a close game in Colorado Springs against Air Force 28-23 with some big 4th down stops by the defense. The Utes dominated the time of possession 36:20-23:40 and coming up with 5 turnovers, a season high, in the win.
Utah’s Offense vs. TCU’s Defense
Passing Game
Two strengths clash here as the Horned Frogs are 1st nationally in passing yards allowed(119 yds/gm) and 4th nationally in Pass Efficiency Defense. The Utes are averaging 258.1 yards/gm and rank 4th nationally in Pass Efficiency Offense.
TCU is lead in the secondary by SS Colin Jones, who is in the running for several national awards. The Frogs play a 5 DB set and start seniors at 4 of the 5 slots. TCU has picked up 7 interceptions and have 20 sacks on the season, although the loss of DT Kelly Griffin to injury early in the Air Force game has slowed them as they have only collected 1 sack the last 2 games. DE Wayne Daniels took over for Larry Hughes and leads the team with 5.5 sacks.
Jordan Wynn turned in a ho-hum performance against the Fly Boys, showing some inconsistency over the season where he has alternated lights out performances against ISU and CSU, with below average games against Wyoming and AFA. The health of DeVonte Christopher is key for Utah. He did practice on Tuesday, but was wearing a knee brace. Christopher and Reggie Dunn are the 2 receivers with the speed to get separation against the TCU secondary. Utah needs to try to stretch the field to keep the safeties from crowding the box/disrupting the crossing patterns by Jereme Brooks and Luke Matthews.
The key for Utah is to keep the pressure off Wynn and allow the passing patterns time to develop. TCU was able to get to Wynn at will in last year’s game. LT John Cullen vs. Daniels is the matchup to watch.
Advantage TCU
Running Game
TCU ranks 9th nationally allowing 98.3 yards/gm. Sophomore LB Tanner Brock has stepped in and leads the team in tackles with 65. LB Tank Carder is 4th on the team in tackles, but is considered by many the leader of the defense. TCU has shown some weakness against runs between tackle (particularly against BYU and Oregon St.), but that weakness is minimal.
Utah continues to average a healthy 191.5 yards/game which ranks 29th nationally.
Matt Asiata had a strong game running inside against Air Force netting 95 yards on 26 carries. Eddie Wide complemented with 82 yards on 23 carries as the Utes appeared to make a concerted effort to dominate the clock against the Falcons.
The Utes missed Asiata’s inside running and pass protection last year against TCU and may see a higher percentage of the plays this game in what to this point has been a fairly even split in plays. Look for Asiata to run plenty of quick hitting plays between tackle. The delay’s and counters should take a back seat this week due to the team speed of the Horned Frog’s Defense.
Advantage Push
Utah’s Defense vs. TCU’s Offense
Passing Game
If there is a chink in the TCU armor, it is likely here. The Frogs average 214.8 yards a game(4th MWC, 60th nationally), but are 13th nationally in Pass Efficiency Offense. Andy Dalton is 143-217, for 209.4 avg, 16 TD’s and 5 Int’s. Watching several games this year, he does not seem as sharp passing as last year, and he seems to not play as well when pressured. TCU has a 3 pronged WR attack led by Jeremy Kerley 35-364-7 TD’s, Josh Boyce 25-395-4 TD’s, and Jimmy Young 16-247-2 TD’s.
Despite a subpar performance against Air Force, the Utah secondary continues to be highly ranked, allowing only 165 yds/game which places them 10th nationally. Utah will likely play plenty of Nickel coverage using Brandon Burton, Lamar Chapman, and Conroy Black to play plenty of man coverage. They have the speed to run with the TCU wideouts, but their success is dependent on the pass rush making Dalton throw earlier than planned or forcing him to throw on the run.
Success in the passing game for TCU is entirely dependent on the success of their running game and down and distance. If the average is 2nd and 7, 3 and 6, TCU’s passing game going to struggle. If you base the analysis solely on the personnel, the Utes have a very slim edge.
Slim Advantage Utah
Running Game
TCU touts one of the best rushing games in the nation at 270.9 yards a game(9th nationally), particularly when you consider that 3 of the teams above them are option attacks. Ed Wesley is the leader with 138-948-10 Td’s, followed by Matthew Tucker with 104-496-6 Td’s. Tucker is more of an inside runner and Wesley uses his elite speed to burn teams on the outside.
Utah’s front 7 met their toughest challenge to date against Air Force and held the Falcon’s 120 yards below their season average. The front four continued to show their dominance, but the linebacking corp had some of their deficiencies revealed, particularly lateral speed. You may see the Utes adapt some of TCU’s 4-2-5 look, bringing in Chapman or Greg Bird in for one of the LB’s. This will help with edge speed. Bird will likely play on more obvious running downs, and Chapman in passing situations.
In my opinion, the game hinges on the success that TCU will have running the ball on 1st and 2nd downs. If the Frogs end up in 2nd or 2rd and short, it will be a long day for the Ute defense. If the Utes can contain the run enough to force Andy Dalton to beat them with his arm, the day will belong to the Crimson and White
Advantage TCU
Special Teams
The game will feature 2 of the better special teams units in the nation. Shaky Smithson continues to be the leader nationally in punt return average, while Jeremy Kerley is 17th. Both punters are Ray Guy award semifinalists(Anson Kelton 41.5 yd average for TCU and Sean Sellwood 42.5 yard average for Utah). K Ross Evans is a perfect 6-6 on FG and 47-50 on XPA, but he has a few Rice-Eccles Stadium demons to exorcise from 2008 where he missed 2 short kicks. Joe Phillips missed his first FG of the year at AFA, a 43 yarder into the wind, but is 9-10 on FG and 47-48 on XPA.
Advantage-Push
Final Analysis
TCU is a 4 1/2 point favorite coming into the game. Utah has several intangibles on their side with the home crowd and playing at altitude. The Horned Frogs have played outside of Texas only twice this season, beating CSU in a so-so effort 27-0 and against UNLV where they won handily. They have only played 1 game where the outcome was in doubt in the 4th quarter(against Oregon St. in the opener). TCU is a front running team. They tend to dominate when they can get a big lead early, but their offense has struggled in games that are close.
Utah has no glaring weaknesses, but, on paper, appear to be a notch below TCU, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Utah’s offense is higher scoring, but totals fewer yards. This can be attributed almost completely to the return game that has let Utah’s Offense score on short fields multiple times this season.
I can’t wait to see this one in person. I see the Utes pulling off a minor upset.
Utah 20 TCU 16
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