There seem to be a handful of people here that are relatively well-acquainted with China, so I'll throw this question out.
IIRC, the "replacement rate" to maintain a population is roughly 2.3 births per couple. Given that, if China has successfully limited the number of births per household to something approaching one, and if in fact there are significantly fewer female live births than male, is there an expectation in the next 20 to 40 years that the Chinese population will start shrinking significantly?
Anyone familiar with research on this?
IIRC, the "replacement rate" to maintain a population is roughly 2.3 births per couple. Given that, if China has successfully limited the number of births per household to something approaching one, and if in fact there are significantly fewer female live births than male, is there an expectation in the next 20 to 40 years that the Chinese population will start shrinking significantly?
Anyone familiar with research on this?
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