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Chinese Demographics: Population Shrinkage on the Horizon?

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  • Chinese Demographics: Population Shrinkage on the Horizon?

    There seem to be a handful of people here that are relatively well-acquainted with China, so I'll throw this question out.

    IIRC, the "replacement rate" to maintain a population is roughly 2.3 births per couple. Given that, if China has successfully limited the number of births per household to something approaching one, and if in fact there are significantly fewer female live births than male, is there an expectation in the next 20 to 40 years that the Chinese population will start shrinking significantly?

    Anyone familiar with research on this?
    Everything in life is an approximation.

    http://twitter.com/CougarStats

  • #2
    Valerie Hudson at BYU is one of the leading researchers on this topic, at least from a political/IR perspective.

    http://mitpress.mit.edu/catalog/auth....asp?aid=16236

    http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cf...event_id=86385

    http://www.hcs.harvard.edu/~hapr/win...gov/hudson.pdf

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    • #3
      China has already started testing the end of their one child policy in a select few areas.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Indy Coug View Post
        There seem to be a handful of people here that are relatively well-acquainted with China, so I'll throw this question out.

        IIRC, the "replacement rate" to maintain a population is roughly 2.3 births per couple. Given that, if China has successfully limited the number of births per household to something approaching one, and if in fact there are significantly fewer female live births than male, is there an expectation in the next 20 to 40 years that the Chinese population will start shrinking significantly?

        Anyone familiar with research on this?
        I don't know the answer to this, but I believe China is an economic disaster waiting to happen between two issues 1) this one with the demographics: the aging population, low growth, and male to female ratio and 2) the already deflated (or is it inflated--its early and my workout killed me) currency (being tied artificially to USD).

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        • #5
          Originally posted by jay santos View Post
          I don't know the answer to this, but I believe China is an economic disaster waiting to happen between two issues 1) this one with the demographics: the aging population, low growth, and male to female ratio and 2) the already deflated (or is it inflated--its early and my workout killed me) currency (being tied artificially to USD).
          I used to think China was going to own the world one day, but after visiting three times in the past year my opinion now is that China is a long, long, long, long way from being able to put forth a culture that compels any other people in the world to emulate it. And from an economic perspective, China may continue to do well, but in the end it's still a billion poor farmers consuming more than they produce. That's not going to change as long as the current power structure remains.
          Visca Catalunya Lliure

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          • #6
            Originally posted by jay santos View Post
            I don't know the answer to this, but I believe China is an economic disaster waiting to happen between two issues 1) this one with the demographics: the aging population, low growth, and male to female ratio and 2) the already deflated (or is it inflated--its early and my workout killed me) currency (being tied artificially to USD).
            I have never been there but my bet is the infrastructure is cheap as hell and will start crumbling in the next decade. It is much easier to go from a agriculture economy to cheap manufacturing. The next step is more difficult and will result in significantly more political freedoms.
            Do Your Damnedest In An Ostentatious Manner All The Time!
            -General George S. Patton

            I'm choosing to mostly ignore your fatuity here and instead overwhelm you with so much data that you'll maybe, just maybe, realize that you have reams to read on this subject before you can contribute meaningfully to any conversation on this topic.
            -DOCTOR Wuap

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Goatnapper'96 View Post
              I have never been there but my bet is the infrastructure is cheap as hell and will start crumbling in the next decade. It is much easier to go from a agriculture economy to cheap manufacturing. The next step is more difficult and will result in significantly more political freedoms.
              My impression on my visits was that every building I went in to felt like it was shoddily-constructed and cheap.
              Visca Catalunya Lliure

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Tim View Post
                My impression on my visits was that every building I went in to felt like it was shoddily-constructed and cheap.
                I'm curious. Are you including Hong Kong in this?
                A man who views the world the same at fifty as he did at twenty has wasted thirty years of his life. - Mohammad Ali

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by CJF View Post
                  I'm curious. Are you including Hong Kong in this?
                  No. Hong Kong, at least on HKI, felt different. Mostly I was referring to Beijing and Shanghai.
                  Visca Catalunya Lliure

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Tim View Post
                    My impression on my visits was that every building I went in to felt like it was shoddily-constructed and cheap.
                    Sounds like you weren't provided with the Tom Friedman propaganda tour. Friedman pines for the day when the US can be just like China.
                    Part of it is based on academic grounds. Among major conferences, the Pac-10 is the best academically, largely because of Stanford, Cal and UCLA. “Colorado is on a par with Oregon,” he said. “Utah isn’t even in the picture.”

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                    • #11
                      Japan and Russia are facing similar crises.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Indy Coug View Post
                        There seem to be a handful of people here that are relatively well-acquainted with China, so I'll throw this question out.

                        IIRC, the "replacement rate" to maintain a population is roughly 2.3 births per couple. Given that, if China has successfully limited the number of births per household to something approaching one, and if in fact there are significantly fewer female live births than male, is there an expectation in the next 20 to 40 years that the Chinese population will start shrinking significantly?

                        Anyone familiar with research on this?
                        I've read several articles on it - Their workforce will peak within the next 5-10 years, and after that, the ratio of workers to non-worker (retirees & children) will fall precipitously - unlike any other major population in world history. By 2050, if current trends continue - the ratio between workers and non-workers will approach ~1:1. It's a major threat to the stability of the country, and to the region. Something's gotta give.

                        They've also got a huge real estate bubble in the westernized/developed areas of the country. Worse than anything the US faced. In many areas real estate prices were doubling year over year for a 2-3 year period. The crash hasn't started yet, but was the pattern here, sales of property have slowed to a halt, and the crash is looming.

                        They have also over-built manufacturing capabilities. Many investments in industrial capacity started in the mid-00s, came online after the crash/recession, and have never been put to use. They're just sitting there because global demand eliminated so much demand that there wasn't a market for the goods they would otherwise produce. And the general low-skill of the workers means it's difficult to retool/retrain for production where resources were misallocated.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Goatnapper'96 View Post
                          I have never been there but my bet is the infrastructure is cheap as hell and will start crumbling in the next decade. It is much easier to go from a agriculture economy to cheap manufacturing. The next step is more difficult and will result in significantly more political freedoms.
                          Or government resistance to change and ensuing chaos...

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by U-Ute View Post
                            Japan and Russia are facing similar crises.
                            It's not so uncommon for developed nations. All you hard ass Republicans need to give a hug to the next illegal alien you see.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by statman View Post
                              I've read several articles on it - Their workforce will peak within the next 5-10 years, and after that, the ratio of workers to non-worker (retirees & children) will fall precipitously - unlike any other major population in world history. By 2050, if current trends continue - the ratio between workers and non-workers will approach ~1:1. It's a major threat to the stability of the country, and to the region. Something's gotta give.

                              They've also got a huge real estate bubble in the westernized/developed areas of the country. Worse than anything the US faced. In many areas real estate prices were doubling year over year for a 2-3 year period. The crash hasn't started yet, but was the pattern here, sales of property have slowed to a halt, and the crash is looming.

                              They have also over-built manufacturing capabilities. Many investments in industrial capacity started in the mid-00s, came online after the crash/recession, and have never been put to use. They're just sitting there because global demand eliminated so much demand that there wasn't a market for the goods they would otherwise produce. And the general low-skill of the workers means it's difficult to retool/retrain for production where resources were misallocated.
                              Will the crash impact them the same? If I am not mistaken most of their GDP is export driven. The impact of decreased domestic consumption is not going to be as acute as it was here.

                              China is going to face the rise of unions and social safety nets - eventually. That is what is going to transition their export economy to one more based upon domestic consumer consumption.
                              Do Your Damnedest In An Ostentatious Manner All The Time!
                              -General George S. Patton

                              I'm choosing to mostly ignore your fatuity here and instead overwhelm you with so much data that you'll maybe, just maybe, realize that you have reams to read on this subject before you can contribute meaningfully to any conversation on this topic.
                              -DOCTOR Wuap

                              Comment

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