QB improvement frosh to senior data analysis

[jay santos]

Here's some data I just played with from ncaa.org.

I took the data they had on player passing efficiency 2000 to 2009. They take the top 100. So you're missing anyone that didn't make the top 100, but I think it's pretty much everyone. They include anyone with 15 pass attempts per game and played 75% of team's games. The lowest rated usually are around 100. No BYU QB's ever been below that for a season. But there could be some data missing at the bottom that could change these results.

89 freshman in the dataset for avg pass rating of 123.8.
216 soph's for 127.7.
300 jr for 129.2
293 seniors for 134.2

The following QB's were in the dataset for all four years.


Averages were 125.4, 127.5, 131.3, 136.4

Max Hall from soph to senior: 137.7, 157.2, 160.1

My thoughts on this is the expectation for a QB to improve from year to year should be modest not drastic. Beck definitely did improve significantly each year, but he is more the exception than the rule.

[MarkGrace]

Beck had a seriously impressive upward trajectory looking at those numbers.

[Indy Coug]

Beck had a seriously impressive upward trajectory looking at those numbers.

Because he had the same cohort of young but talented players developing alongside him.

[pelagius]

Jay,

I did this a few years ago on cougarguard. But this is the BYU historical average relation between passing efficiency and QB experience. I split passing efficiency outcomes by qb experience buckets. However, I don't use raw passing efficiency. I modify passing efficiency by controlling for opponent quality (Massey MOV end of year computer ranking) and where the game is played. The following graph presents passing efficiency controlling opponent quality and location as a function of qb experience in terms of games played. The way to read the graph is this is the expected passing efficiency if the game was played at home and the rank of the opponent was between 60-80 (a slightly above average MWC opponent or a poor BCS opponent).



The big difference for BYU historically is one year of experience. They are much better after the first year. It is pretty flat after that.

[cougjunkie]

Because he had the same cohort of young but talented players developing alongside him.

Exactly which is what I see from Heaps as well.

By the way this is the type of stuff you do not get anywhere else but CUF.

Pelagius, Santos and Indy we are a mother effing super power.

[Indy Coug]

If Munns hadn't decided post-enrollment to serve a mission, he'd be our starter as a RS Junior this year and we'd be 2-1 and possibly 3-0 right now. Heaps would be starting in 2012 as a RS sophomore and we'd be all set.

[cougjunkie]

If Munns hadn't decided post-enrollment to serve a mission, he'd be our starter as a RS Junior this year and we'd be 2-1 and possibly 3-0 right now. Heaps would be starting in 2012 as a RS sophomore and we'd be all set.

I agree. Also if Jacob Bower had not thrown a punch at Brandon Doman he could actually be the starter as a senior right now, with Munns as the backup and Heaps RS and learning.

[MarkGrace]

I think from what I've read it seems that under those scenarios Jake might not be here.

[Indy Coug]

I think from what I've read it seems that under those scenarios Jake might not be here.

Jake's not exactly doing us a lot of good right now. If we're not concerned about now, then what Munns did with his mission is pointless.

[UtahDan]

Jake's not exactly doing us a lot of good right now. If we're not concerned about now, then what Munns did with his mission is pointless.

Drum and I were talking on Saturday about BYU and its fans essentially saying "we know we aren't any good this year, that is fine, we are rebuilding." It seems that a lot of people are already there. I just think it is one thing to say it and another to live it.

In other words, it is easy for me to be philosophical about the running Utes sucking. The ship sailed, I have accepted it, I have lived through several years of it now. Same things with the Redskins. But BYU fans are acclimated to success and have the recent sting of the Crowton years to remind them of where they don't want to be. Case in point is the outpouring of emotion after an FSU game that you all said you thought you would lose. I see now that everyone is picking UNR to beat BYU. But I bet in your hearts you haven't accepted that outcome.

I guess my only point is that when it comes to sports the cold analysis most people do on Monday goes out the window on Saturday afternoon. That is certainly not unique to you all, but it is not the 30,000 foot view.

[Shaka]

Jake's not exactly doing us a lot of good right now. If we're not concerned about now, then what Munns did with his mission is pointless.

Meh, he will get better.