Most important individual stat in NCAA football?

[smokymountainrain]

Pass Efficiency Rating

Actually, I have no clue how significant this is, but I found it interesting nonetheless that the teams of top 12 QBs in the country have a combined record of 111-14. Or an average record of 9-1.

[Jeff Lebowski]

We need Indy to show up and fill us in on the PE differential. He claims that is the key stat.

[All-American]

Well, I'm no Indy, but . . .

BYU Pass Efficiency: 166.84
BYU Pass Efficiency (Defense): 116.46
PE Differential: 50.38

Utah Pass Efficiency: 144.42
Utah Pass Efficiency (Defense) 113.46
PE Differential: 30.96

PED Differential: BYU +19.42.

[All-American]

And Indy on why that matters:

http://www.cougarboard.com/nologin/m...tml?id=2279662

And his breakdown:

PED Diff W L Win% Avg MOV
125 to 150 3 0 100.0% 47.3
100 to 125 36 0 100.0% 38.6
75 to 100 165 4 97.6% 30.9
50 to 75 477 43 91.7% 21.3
25 to 50 829 213 79.6% 13.1
0 to 25 934 589 61.3% 4.3

[RockyBalboa]

Well, I'm no Indy, but . . .

BYU Pass Efficiency: 166.84
BYU Pass Efficiency (Defense): 116.46
PE Differential: 50.38

Utah Pass Efficiency: 144.42
Utah Pass Efficiency (Defense) 113.46
PE Differential: 30.96

PED Differential: BYU +19.42.

Help an idiot out....so this is good for BYU right?

[pelagius]

Help an idiot out....so this is good for BYU right?

Yes, Indy's prediction would be something like BYU should win by 4-6 points (of course you should probably throw in a home field advantage adjustment at the very least which would reduce it to like 1-3 points).

* just based on the table its 4 points but I assume Indy would want to adjust it upward more because 19.4 is towards the upper end of the lowest differential breakpoint.

[ERCougar]

We need Indy to show up and fill us in on the PE differential. He claims that is the key stat.

I think I have to go with points being the key stat. That or PD (point differential).

[pelagius]

I think I have to go with points being the key stat. That or PD (point differential).

No doubt PD (point differential) is a great stat but it has its problems as an ex ante predictor.

[ERCougar]

No doubt PD (point differential) is a great stat but it has its problems as an ex ante predictor.

I wonder how PED compares to PD (ex post=over past games?) as a predictor.

[Hot Lunch]

What about turnovers?

[pelagius]

I wonder how PED compares to PD (ex post=over past games?) as a predictor.

You're right you can use PD in an ex ante way.

That's what the computer models are really doing to some degree. You use the information in past game score (margin of victory) to rank teams and predict. The MOV models are not as good of predictors as the Vegas spread. So just go with spread as your ex ante predictor. Indy claims he can beat the spread about 60% of the time with a modified version of PED (I am skeptical of this claim, I believe it worked this well for some sample period, but I am skeptical it will work that wll going forward, but if it does Indy should be become a very rich man).

[All-American]

You're right you can use PD in an ex ante way.

That's what the computer models are really doing to some degree. You use the information in past game score (margin of victory) to rank teams and predict. The MOV models are not as good of predictors as the Vegas spread. So just go with spread as your ex ante predictor. Indy claims he can beat the spread about 60% of the time with a modified version of PED (I am skeptical of this claim, I believe it worked this well for some sample period, but I am skeptical it will work that wll going forward, but if it does Indy should be become a very rich man).

The problem is that PED is only good towards the end of the season, once you've gotten enough data to be able to figure out how good the two teams are. It's good for November games and for bowl games. Maybe.

[All-American]

What about turnovers?

Somewhat accounted for in PED, as interceptions figure into the stat.

[pelagius]

The problem is that PED is only good towards the end of the season, once you've gotten enough data to be able to figure out how good the two teams are. It's good for November games and for bowl games. Maybe.

This would be true for a MOV based predictor as well. But, yes, that problem does limit Indy's ability to potentially make money off that strategy.