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Thought hte housing market had settled? That a market-clearing price had been hit?

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  • Thought hte housing market had settled? That a market-clearing price had been hit?

    guess again:

    http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot...july-2010.html

    Normally the ratio between existing home sales and new home sales remains fairly constant. Plot the graphs of the two (on different axes), and the curves sit right on top of each other.

    The "distressing gap" (between the blue and the red) is the result of over capacity/excess inventory in the existing housing market. Prices in existing homes are still so good in comparison to new homes, the market for new homes has dropped like a rock. We won't see a real economic recovery until the excess inventory is sold off, and home building really starts up again. There are a whole lot of foreclosures and short sales that have to happen to get to that point...
    Last edited by statman; 08-25-2010, 01:56 PM.

  • #2
    That is a VERY interesting piece of information. Thanks.
    Everything in life is an approximation.

    http://twitter.com/CougarStats

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    • #3
      There are crazy low prices out there on existing homes. And I don't see that changing anytime soon as long as the short sales and foreclosures keep coming. And the banks aren't selling the whole inventory of bank owned properties all at once either as they don't want to flood the market. Even IF we are seeing an economic recovery, which I am skeptical of, I think we are a minimum of 2 years out before prices start to recover.

      Exhibit A:

      A coworker just bought a brand new house, bank owned, that was build 2 years ago for 850K. His price? 399K. And 2 years ago was already after things had "crashed"

      Hit KSL or CraigsList and look in places like Alpine, Bountiful, Draper, etc. Prices are crashing like crazy.
      "It's true that everything happens for a reason. Just remember that sometimes that reason is that you did something really, really, stupid."

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      • #4
        I got my appraisal back on my house today for the refinancing: $140k!!!!

        We bought it in June 2007 for $136k and have put about $4k into it since then besides repairs.



        I'm just elated. 2100 sq ft, 4 bd/3ba brick ranch on .54 acres with a mature yard (500+ azaleas) and hardwood floors throughout.

        The kitchen, however, is circa 1962. I have a turquoise oven and stove.
        "Yeah, but never trust a Ph.D who has an MBA as well. The PhD symbolizes intelligence and discipline. The MBA symbolizes lust for power." -- Katy Lied

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        • #5
          Originally posted by FMCoug View Post
          There are crazy low prices out there on existing homes. And I don't see that changing anytime soon as long as the short sales and foreclosures keep coming. And the banks aren't selling the whole inventory of bank owned properties all at once either as they don't want to flood the market. Even IF we are seeing an economic recovery, which I am skeptical of, I think we are a minimum of 2 years out before prices start to recover.

          Exhibit A:

          A coworker just bought a brand new house, bank owned, that was build 2 years ago for 850K. His price? 399K. And 2 years ago was already after things had "crashed"

          Hit KSL or CraigsList and look in places like Alpine, Bountiful, Draper, etc. Prices are crashing like crazy.
          Some sunday I was flipping through the real estate adds in SE Idaho and I am pretty convinced I could buy a house similar to the one I plan to build for $50-$100,000 less than what my construction costs will be. It is a buyers market out there like something I doubt we see again in our lifetimes.
          Do Your Damnedest In An Ostentatious Manner All The Time!
          -General George S. Patton

          I'm choosing to mostly ignore your fatuity here and instead overwhelm you with so much data that you'll maybe, just maybe, realize that you have reams to read on this subject before you can contribute meaningfully to any conversation on this topic.
          -DOCTOR Wuap

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          • #6
            Originally posted by wuapinmon View Post
            I got my appraisal back on my house today for the refinancing: $140k!!!!

            We bought it in June 2007 for $136k and have put about $4k into it since then besides repairs.



            I'm just elated. 2100 sq ft, 4 bd/3ba brick ranch on .54 acres with a mature yard (500+ azaleas) and hardwood floors throughout.

            The kitchen, however, is circa 1962. I have a turquoise oven and stove.
            Does your kitchen couple as a set on Mad Men?

            Seriously I would put turquoise appliances in my home (built in 2008) if my wife would allow it. It could be worse, they could be 70s vintage olive green.
            Part of it is based on academic grounds. Among major conferences, the Pac-10 is the best academically, largely because of Stanford, Cal and UCLA. “Colorado is on a par with Oregon,” he said. “Utah isn’t even in the picture.”

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Color Me Badd Fan View Post
              Does your kitchen couple as a set on Mad Men?

              Seriously I would put turquoise appliances in my home (built in 2008) if my wife would allow it. It could be worse, they could be 70s vintage olive green.
              AVocado. in the 70s they were avocado green. Dont even try to tell me you are old enough to know. I am.
              PLesa excuse the tpyos.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Color Me Badd Fan View Post
                Does your kitchen couple as a set on Mad Men?

                Seriously I would put turquoise appliances in my home (built in 2008) if my wife would allow it. It could be worse, they could be 70s vintage olive green.
                Yeah, they cook like crap and have push button burners, right where my kids can reach them. New stuff that color would be okay. Mine are vintage with all that that brings. You can see the oven in the blueberry pie/cobbler thread.
                "Yeah, but never trust a Ph.D who has an MBA as well. The PhD symbolizes intelligence and discipline. The MBA symbolizes lust for power." -- Katy Lied

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                • #9
                  I spoke to a real estate agent today about a home I just love from the pictures. It's an amazing house. Only problem is it is in South Ogden and I would prefer Farmington be as far north that we would go. If it is still there in Nov I might pull the trigger. If it isn't, there will be 10 more deals just like it or better in over the next 12 months is my guess. I'm going to take a bath our our townhome, but hopefully I make it up on our next home and end up breaking even.
                  A man who views the world the same at fifty as he did at twenty has wasted thirty years of his life. - Mohammad Ali

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                  • #10
                    We just bought.. Interesting enough, the area I purchased has not been hit to hard. It is a very mature little city within Columbus. Many of the homeowners have been there for over 20 to 30 years. The new homes are from wealthy business owners who have not been forced to sell or lose their homes. In the whole town I was only able to find 2 Foreclosure/Bank Owned in the area we bought. I did get it for $24,00 to $26,000 below it real value if not more..


                    When we were looking our options were to build or purchase. We had a lot we wanted and had been watching for over 3 years. It had not sold and the owner was not willing to drop his price. We could of built there, but it would of cost us close to $40,000 more then what we got our house for.. So we went with the existing home...

                    I was surprised by the cost to build. I think it would of been less in this current market.. I think the price of the lot was my main problem. I was not willing to pay what he wanted for it..

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