pelagius

11-19-2008, 11:28 PM

There has been some chatter about Max Hall's performance as a passer. I took a look at both 07 and 08 seasons. In each case, what I did was compare Max Hall's passing efficiency to a predicted average efficiency of BYU quarterbacks from 1984-2006. If a typical BYU quaterback played the same opponent quality (based on my computer model), with the same experience in terms of games played, and in the same location, what passing efficiency would we expect (I will spare you the details of the regression specification). I compare Hall to that prediction. So this analysis insn't asking whether Hall's numbers are better than last year. Its asking how Hall's two season stack up to past BYU quarterbacks after taking into account his experience level and quality of opponent played.

http://fisher.osu.edu/~diether_1/b722/qb_07.png

Hall looks pretty good relative to history. In 07 Hall had 6 games that were better than the BYU predictive value given his experience level and oponent quality. One noticeable thing is the variance in his performance.

http://fisher.osu.edu/~diether_1/b722/qb_08.png

Hall looks slightly better this season even after controlling for experience and opponent quality. He has already been above the past BYU QB predictive over 6 times (with 2 games left). Also, he seems to be more consistent this year. Variance is noticeable less than the 07 season.

In both seasons he had one substantially sub-par game in terms of efficiency relative to predictive value (07: E Washington and 08: TCU). Nice season for Hall ... The biggest improvement historically for a BYU quarterback is from the 1st to the second year. Hall has improved at least as much as a typicallBYU qb and maybe a little better.

http://fisher.osu.edu/~diether_1/b722/qb_07.png

Hall looks pretty good relative to history. In 07 Hall had 6 games that were better than the BYU predictive value given his experience level and oponent quality. One noticeable thing is the variance in his performance.

http://fisher.osu.edu/~diether_1/b722/qb_08.png

Hall looks slightly better this season even after controlling for experience and opponent quality. He has already been above the past BYU QB predictive over 6 times (with 2 games left). Also, he seems to be more consistent this year. Variance is noticeable less than the 07 season.

In both seasons he had one substantially sub-par game in terms of efficiency relative to predictive value (07: E Washington and 08: TCU). Nice season for Hall ... The biggest improvement historically for a BYU quarterback is from the 1st to the second year. Hall has improved at least as much as a typicallBYU qb and maybe a little better.