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Is it really starting to feel like 1932?

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  • Is it really starting to feel like 1932?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...like-1932.html

    Here's a fairly depressing article.

    Here's the most depressing part: "The share of the US working-age population with jobs in June actually fell from 58.7pc to 58.5pc. This is the real stress indicator. The ratio was 63pc three years ago. Eight million jobs have been lost."

    And this: "Legions of individuals have been left with stale skills, and little prospect of finding meaningful work, and benefits that are being exhausted. By our math the crop of people who are unemployed but not receiving a check amounts to 9.2m."

    It seemed to me that the economy was turning around this past April and May. Then some time in late May or early June, it seemed like things turned for the worse. I'm not sure if it was the employment numbers or the 30% decline in home sales. But I went from thinking that this economy would turn around when housing inventory got burned through to thinking that at best we're going to have something like the 1970s or a Japanese-esque lost decade.

    It was obvious to me that the economy we had in 2005 had a lot of excess fat to trim off. Just think about all the guys you knew that were directly connected to the real estate bubble. It dwarfs what was going on in 1999 with the Internet bubble. A huge portion of that sector has been wiped out. As it turns out, there were probably enough homes built between 2002-2006 to last us until the middle of this new decade.
    Part of it is based on academic grounds. Among major conferences, the Pac-10 is the best academically, largely because of Stanford, Cal and UCLA. “Colorado is on a par with Oregon,” he said. “Utah isn’t even in the picture.”

  • #2
    I think 71 is the only person on the board that would know the answer to that question
    Te Occidere Possunt Sed Te Edere Non Possunt Nefas Est.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by camleish View Post
      I think 71 is the only person on the board that would know the answer to that question
      I feel really bad for the group of people just entering the work force. I was interviewing after my first year in the Fall of 2002 and that wasn't a picnic but it's nothing compared to this job market.

      On the other hand, for someone that was smart enough to keep their powder dry during frenzy of 2005-2006, there's never been a greater time to really acquire some wealth. Some assets are massively undervalued right now.
      Part of it is based on academic grounds. Among major conferences, the Pac-10 is the best academically, largely because of Stanford, Cal and UCLA. “Colorado is on a par with Oregon,” he said. “Utah isn’t even in the picture.”

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Color Me Badd Fan View Post
        On the other hand, for someone that was smart enough to keep their powder dry during frenzy of 2005-2006, there's never been a greater time to really acquire some wealth. Some assets are massively undervalued right now.
        I know a guy who runs an investment fund that's buying property like crazy. They focus on distressed property that a developer started work on and has the utilities in and perhaps roads built, but no buildings. They work with the developer and the bank, and usually end up buying the property for very little. The plan is to hold onto it for a while, then sell it when things get back to normal. They're going to make a killing.
        Not that, sickos.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by thesaint258 View Post
          I know a guy who runs an investment fund that's buying property like crazy. They focus on distressed property that a developer started work on and has the utilities in and perhaps roads built, but no buildings. They work with the developer and the bank, and usually end up buying the property for very little. The plan is to hold onto it for a while, then sell it when things get back to normal. They're going to make a killing.
          They might have to hold stuff for a long time. That is the drawback on cleaning up the leftovers.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by New Mexican Disaster View Post
            They might have to hold stuff for a long time. That is the drawback on cleaning up the leftovers.
            I agree -- that seems like it would require a minimum of a ten-year plan and maybe closer to 20 years.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by CardiacCoug View Post
              I agree -- that seems like it would require a minimum of a ten-year plan and maybe closer to 20 years.
              Location. Location. Location.
              "Yeah, but never trust a Ph.D who has an MBA as well. The PhD symbolizes intelligence and discipline. The MBA symbolizes lust for power." -- Katy Lied

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              • #8
                Originally posted by CardiacCoug View Post
                I agree -- that seems like it would require a minimum of a ten-year plan and maybe closer to 20 years.
                Another problem that I just thought of with this set up (and obviously these guys are smarter than me, so I am sure they planned around this) is that this land would seemingly be fallow until developed and thus no income at all coming in. These would have to be some really, really sweet deals and have some very deep pockets to wait this out

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                • #9
                  True enough. That can work out great, if they've got deep pockets, remarkable foresight, or incredible luck.
                  τὸν ἥλιον ἀνατέλλοντα πλείονες ἢ δυόμενον προσκυνοῦσιν

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                  • #10
                    If one were to start buying up these properties, they can raze all the buildings and homes and get them zoned for cemeteries. 1100 burial plots can fit into one acre of land. When the blood starts running in the streets, there will be a need to bury all the corpses and a privately owned cemetery will really rake in the bucks.
                    "Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance and the gospel of envy; its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery." - Winston Churchill


                    "I only know what I hear on the news." - Dear Leader

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by New Mexican Disaster View Post
                      Another problem that I just thought of with this set up (and obviously these guys are smarter than me, so I am sure they planned around this) is that this land would seemingly be fallow until developed and thus no income at all coming in. These would have to be some really, really sweet deals and have some very deep pockets to wait this out
                      Very deep pockets is right. They plan on holding the property for a long time.
                      Not that, sickos.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by il Padrino Ute View Post
                        If one were to start buying up these properties, they can raze all the buildings and homes and get them zoned for cemeteries. 1100 burial plots can fit into one acre of land. When the blood starts running in the streets, there will be a need to bury all the corpses and a privately owned cemetery will really rake in the bucks.
                        signed, the eternal optimist,
                        Dio perdona tante cose per un’opera di misericordia
                        God forgives many things for an act of mercy
                        Alessandro Manzoni

                        Knock it off. This board has enough problems without a dose of middle-age lechery.

                        pelagius

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