How likely is the dissolution of the Big12?

[Indy Coug]

Poll

[USUC]

As of June 8, 2010 at 7:57 am MST, I would say its 50/50.

[BoylenOver]

With each passing moment, it becomes more and more likely, especially when you combine it with the silence of Nebraska.

[jay santos]

Here's how I see it.

1. Notre Dame accepts Big 10 invitation. 50%
2. Notre Dame invite translates to no invite to NE and MO 50%
3. Big 10 invites Nebraska and Mizzou without ND. 100%
4. Texas and 5 others go to Pac 10 in event NE and MO leave 100%
5. Texas and 5 others go to Pac 10 in event NE and MO stay 10%
6. CO and Utah get invited given Texas and 5 others don't join Pac 10 30% (why? Pac will wait another year or two or five and try again)
7. BYU gets invited to Big 12 in event Pac 10 steals away CO and Utah 30%
8. BYU and Utah end up paired with Kansas and Kansas State in MWC or new Big 12 or other given Big 12 dissolution 30%

So...

chance Big 12 dissolves = .5*1*1 + .5*.5*1 = 75%
chance Utah ends up in Pac 10 = 25% (which is 1 - above) * .3 = 7.5%
chance BYU ends up in Big 12 with Texas = 7.5% (from above) * .3 = 2.25%
chance BYU and Utah end up with Kansas and KSU in MWC or new conference = 75% * .3 = 22.5%

[thesaint258]

I honestly don't know. It's hard to tell with all the speculation out there, but the fact that it's even being talked about as much as it is doesn't paint a pretty picture for the future of the conference. It may not happen this year, but I think it'll probably happen in the next few years.

[jay santos]

Something I always find interesting is how our perspectives taint our intellectual opinions.

I don't know the loyalties perfectly of everyone in the poll, but this is what I think the break down is.

Utes: 5/8 or 62.5% in the last three categories of Big 12 dissolution being unlikely

Cougs: 7/29 or 24% in the last three categories

[CJF]

If I had seen this poll 24 hours ago I would have voted unlikely. In 24 more hours I might be back to unlikely. Things are changing very quickly. Used to be able to count on ND staying Independent. Who would have thunk that the only way to keep the traditions of college athletics in tact would be for ND to join the Big 10+1?

[Color Me Badd Fan]

I read a transcript from an interview on a Dallas Sports Radio station. Obviously Dallas is Longhorn territory so they're very interested in what's going on. The interview was conducted with someone who knows (or claims to know) what's going on with Notre Dame, Nebraska and Texas. I get the sense the guy is more connected to Texas because he's trying to defend Texas in saying that Texas is trying like hell to keep the Big 12 together (and why not? They get uneven revenue sharing).

Anyway, three basic things came out of the interview:

1. Notre Dame is seriously contemplating joining the Big 10. They're scared that four 16 team superconferences will form and they'll be left out.

2. Notre Dame only wants to join if it holds the 12th spot and the expansion stops at 12. ND probably views that it adds so much to the Big 10 pie that adding additional teams will only take away from their share rather than raise everyone's boats.

3. Nebraska will only get an invite if ND turns down the Big 10. If NU does get an invite, it will definitely go to the Big 10.

4. Nebraska is the lynch-pin in the Big 12. If they leave, the Big 12 North is greatly weakened and (at least most) of the Big 12 South has a fairly attractive offer to leave the rest of the Big 12 North behind and join the Pac 10.

None of this is exactly news, but the guy in Texas at least claimed to be connected and it sums up what all the chatter has been about.

The irony in all of this is that ND is in the position to save college football from, IMO, destroying itself (or at least destroying the MWC and a handful of teams). The way this would shake out is not four 16 team conferences, but three mega conferences. The Pac 10 would pick up six teams, the SEC four teams and the Big 10 five teams. The SEC would pick up the cream of the ACC crop (FSU, Miami, V-Tech and probably Georgia Tech). The ACC would cease being a viable BCS conference. The MWC would pick up the scraps from the Big 12 North and/or South but still couldn't compete in football. The Big East would essentially be C-USA in football. The Big 12 would dissolve. So, instead of six BCS conferences with 66 teams and the MWC getting close to BCS acceptance, we would have 48 teams in the megaconferences and everyone else. I just don't think that would be a positive development.

Ironically, I think the MWC's loss in football would be its gain in basketball. I haven't seen any discussion regarding Kansas or K-State landing anywhere decent in the shakeup, and that would be a huge pickup in basketball if it was forced to join the MWC.

[Mormon Red Death]

The irony in all of this is that ND is in the position to save college football from, IMO, destroying itself (or at least destroying the MWC and a handful of teams). The way this would shake out is not four 16 team conferences, but three mega conferences. The Pac 10 would pick up six teams, the SEC four teams and the Big 10 five teams. The SEC would pick up the cream of the ACC crop (FSU, Miami, V-Tech and probably Georgia Tech). The ACC would cease being a viable BCS conference. The MWC would pick up the scraps from the Big 12 North and/or South but still couldn't compete in football. The Big East would essentially be C-USA in football. The Big 12 would dissolve. So, instead of six BCS conferences with 66 teams and the MWC getting close to BCS acceptance, we would have 48 teams in the megaconferences and everyone else. I just don't think that would be a positive development.

Ironically, I think the MWC's loss in football would be its gain in basketball. I haven't seen any discussion regarding Kansas or K-State landing anywhere decent in the shakeup, and that would be a huge pickup in basketball if it was forced to join the MWC.

The best thing for the MWC triumvirate is to get 6 other schools (KU KSt Baylor/Colo, UNLV, Air Force, Colorado St) and say to the remainder ACC Schools to get 9 schools and have the 4th Mega conference. Basketball would kick ass and football wouldn't be horrendous.

[Mormon Red Death]

CUSA is ready to pounce on the remaining big12 teams. Let's hope Hair Thompson has a contingency plan but I'm guessing he doesn't.

Btw how does one become an advisor like this? What is Chuck Neinas going to do besides collecting a fat paycheck? follow chip on tweeter? read CUF?

[LA Ute]

I just don't know, so I voted "completely uncertain." My fond hope is that after all the dust settles Utah and BYU come out OK and our rivalry continues to be vibrant and full of healthy hatred fun for all involved.

[YOhio]

I just don't know, so I voted "completely uncertain." My fond hope is that after all the dust settles Utah and BYU come out OK and our rivalry continues to be vibrant and full of healthy hatred fun for all involved.

You want both teams to come out of Oklahoma? That makes zero sense.

[pellegrino]

Does anyone know for certain how many member institutions have to jump ship for the league to dissolve? It seems to me that if only four are left then it's game over. At that point any hopes that a shell of the surviving Big 12 teams can continue the league as a BCS conference and then invite other schools (BYU/Utah) is just a pipe dream.

[Babs]

Does anyone know for certain how many member institutions have to jump ship for the league to dissolve? It seems to me that if only four are left then it's game over. At that point any hopes that a shell of the surviving Big 12 teams can continue the league as a BCS conference and then invite other schools (BYU/Utah) is just a pipe dream.

There's no minimum or maxiumum. It's kind of like when "Boston" or "Chicago" comes through town on tour and they're still using the name even though only one of the original guys is still there.

The Big 12 (as is the case with all current auto-bid conferences) is guaranteed an auto-bid through the 2013 season, regardless of its membership structure. But at that point all conferences are scheduled to be re-evaluated, and conference membership will be one of the criteria taken into consideration in determining what auto-bids will be offered. So the Big 12, if it chose to exist as an eight-team conference of leftovers, could continue in the BCS system, but the likelihood of the conference maintaining an auto-bid beyond 2013 is minimal.

Incidentally, the conference bylaws state that any conference member has the right to withdraw, provided that they give a minimum of two years notice.

[SteelBlue]

There's no minimum or maxiumum. It's kind of like when "Boston" or "Chicago" comes through town on tour and they're still using the name even though only one of the original guys is still there.

The Big 12 (as is the case with all current auto-bid conferences) is guaranteed an auto-bid through the 2013 season, regardless of its membership structure. But at that point all conferences are scheduled to be re-evaluated, and conference membership will be one of the criteria taken into consideration in determining what auto-bids will be offered. So the Big 12, if it chose to exist as an eight-team conference of leftovers, could continue in the BCS system, but the likelihood of the conference maintaining an auto-bid beyond 2013 is minimal.

Incidentally, the conference bylaws state that any conference member has the right to withdraw, provided that they give a minimum of two years notice.

Babs I think you may be wrong on this one. I read in the NYT last week that there have to be 6 teams that have played together for at least 5 years or the conference is automatically dissolved. I'll try to find the link.

Edit: Here's the link

If the Pac-10 swiped six teams from the Big 12 and Missouri or Nebraska went to the Big Ten, the Big 12 would become defunct. Under N.C.A.A. guidelines, a conference needs at least six universities that have played together for five years. The Big 12 would lose its Bowl Championship Series bid and automatic bid to the N.C.A.A. basketball tournament. That could leave colleges like Kansas and Kansas State to be snapped up by the Big East, which could be its best bet to continue using the lure of a B.C.S. bid for football recruits.