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Donuthole
04-27-2010, 12:01 PM
I enjoy TMQ's logical approach to football and pollitics, and I've been a reader for about 8 years now (even when his perceived anti-semetic analysis of Kill Bill landed him the boot from ESPN. He resurfaced a few months later at CBS and, after continued success, ESPN came bidding a few years later).

This is an excerpt from his latest column, outlining what a crapshoot the NFL draft is:


Who did best at draft predictions? It is tempting to name Jennifer Lopez, a minority owner of the Miami Dolphins, who just before the draft said her team needed a nose tackle and would select Dan Williams. Williams, she said, "can beat the double team and does a nice job finishing the play" -- obviously Jennifer has spent time in the film room breaking down tape. Miami ended up selecting nose tackle Jared Odrick, two spots after Williams was chosen. That's not bad draft forecasting.

The prodigious feat of the draft was turned in not by any pros but by Lyndon Plothow, a senior at Brigham Young University. For his senior thesis, Plothow did a convincing analysis demonstrating that non-BCS-conference wide receivers are more productive in the NFL (more catches, longer careers) than receivers from BCS conferences. Miles Austin, Brandon Marshall and Marques Colston are among current non-BCS receivers outplaying the big boys from the monster schools. Typical NFL teams have a dozen full-time, credentialed experts in the scouting department. Yet they still haven't noticed what Plothow noticed: the draft value of non-BCS receivers.

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2010/0427/pg2_e_plothow_300.jpg

Plothow went further by making a testable prediction, the gold standard of science. Using his own formula of perceived draft value, he predicted BYU star receiver Dennis Pitta would be the 113th player selected in the draft. Pitta was the 114th player chosen. Beginner's luck? Maybe. But Plothow -- who is, in draftnik terms, an undrafted free agent -- came through with a better call than any of the experts.

The NFL draft is much closer to being a lottery than an exact science, argues Tuesday Morning Quarterback. - ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/100427_tuesday_morning_quarterback_draft_review)

Surfah
04-27-2010, 12:03 PM
I enjoy TMQ's logical approach to football and pollitics, and I've been a reader for about 8 years now (even when his perceived anti-semetic analysis of Kill Bill landed him the boot from ESPN. He resurfaced a few months later at CBS and, after continued success, ESPN came bidding a few years later).

This is an excerpt from his latest column, outlining what a crapshoot the NFL draft is:



The NFL draft is much closer to being a lottery than an exact science, argues Tuesday Morning Quarterback. - ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/100427_tuesday_morning_quarterback_draft_review)

That's rad.

smokymountainrain
04-27-2010, 02:41 PM
I enjoy TMQ's logical approach to football and pollitics, and I've been a reader for about 8 years now (even when his perceived anti-semetic analysis of Kill Bill landed him the boot from ESPN. He resurfaced a few months later at CBS and, after continued success, ESPN came bidding a few years later).

This is an excerpt from his latest column, outlining what a crapshoot the NFL draft is:



The NFL draft is much closer to being a lottery than an exact science, argues Tuesday Morning Quarterback. - ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/100427_tuesday_morning_quarterback_draft_review)

And despite the fact that the NFL draft is more of a crapshoot/lottery than an exact science, teams will continue to trade established superstars in their prime for second round picks.