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  • Utah will beat BYU

    The factors:
    1. Anae refuses to run the football. Only when he committed to the run did the cougars take control of the AFA game. It has been this way all season. To a degree I understand why he throws as much as he does -- he’s trying to take what the defense gives him. But that feeds the next factor that will result in a loss.
    2. Hall has regressed this season. He locks in on his favorite receivers and forces the ball. He is not making his reads. Good opposing defensive coaches see this on film and exploit it. TCU did and Whittingham most certainly will. That leads to the next factor that will result in a loss.
    3. Pitta is injured. One of if not his favorite receiver will not play or shouldn’t play. If he does he will be seriously hampered. You take away Pita and that leaves Collie. Anae refuses to run the ball so what is there left to do but to force it to Collie. The Utes secondary is will shut him down with double teams. The O will resort to trickeration and will not have sustained drives which leads to the next factor that will result in a loss.
    4. The Defense will not stop Utah. The Ute O will move the ball at will, especially after the Cougs D has been on the field too long due to the ineffectiveness of the Offense.


    In the past I have always said this rivalry game is too difficult to predict. However, due to the above factors Utah will win by more than a touchdown. Not a blowout but a convincing win that will be demoralizing for the Cougar faithfull.
    Last edited by tooblue; 11-17-2008, 08:33 AM.

  • #2
    Originally posted by tooblue View Post
    The factors:
    [LIST=1][*]Hall has regressed this season. He locks in on his favorite receivers and forces the ball. He is not making his reads. Good opposing defensive coaches see this on film and exploit it. TCU did and Whittingham most certainly will. That leads to the next factor that will result in a loss.
    At the risk of outing myself on the other board, how do you figure Hall has regressed? Everything is better than last year. His completion percentage is up from 60% to 72%, his yards per attempt from 7.8 to 8.8, his rating from 138 to 170, his TD/Interception ration from 2.5 to 4.3. What possible indication is there that he is worse now than he was last season? If it is true that he is locking onto a couple of receivers, it appears to have been a good thing.

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    • #3
      Why do you discount Reed and George so much. To be honest George isnt that huge dropoff from Pitta
      "Be a philosopher. A man can compromise to gain a point. It has become apparent that a man can, within limits, follow his inclinations within the arms of the Church if he does so discreetly." - The Walking Drum

      "And here’s what life comes down to—not how many years you live, but how many of those years are filled with bullshit that doesn’t amount to anything to satisfy the requirements of some dickhead you’ll never get the pleasure of punching in the face." – Adam Carolla

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      • #4
        Hall has regressed?

        Um....okay.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Clark Addison View Post
          At the risk of outing myself on the other board, how do you figure Hall has regressed? Everything is better than last year. His completion percentage is up from 60% to 72%, his yards per attempt from 7.8 to 8.8, his rating from 138 to 170, his TD/Interception ration from 2.5 to 4.3. What possible indication is there that he is worse now than he was last season? If it is true that he is locking onto a couple of receivers, it appears to have been a good thing.
          He's throwing --or should we say forcing the ball-- to two above average receivers that will make most QB's, especially in this conference, look above average.

          I'm not saying Hall sucks, I'm saying he is zoned in, does not make his reads, forces the ball and that IS regression. When the team loses one and possibly both due to a good defensive backfield it's not a good thing!
          Last edited by tooblue; 11-17-2008, 09:11 AM.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Mormon Red Death View Post
            Why do you discount Reed and George so much. To be honest George isnt that huge dropoff from Pitta
            I'm not discounting those two. He has forced the ball this season instead of making the reads. With weak teams on the schedule it has resulted in lot's of points. But what happened when a D came along that could play both those guys straight up?

            Halls stats are great due in part to Hall, those two receivers but in equal part to the fact BYU throws the ball on almost EVERY down. And it's inconceivable to me considering the line BYU has and the two RB's in the backfield!

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            • #7
              Originally posted by tooblue View Post
              I'm not discounting those two. He has forced the ball this season instead of making the reads. With weak teams on the schedule it has resulted in lot's of points. But what happened when a D came along that could play both those guys straight up?

              Halls stats are great due in part to Hall, those two receivers but in equal part to the fact BYU throws the ball on almost EVERY down. And it's inconceivable to me considering the line BYU has and the two RB's in the backfield!
              Increasing his stats across the board in virtually every category and leading his team to thus far a better record than last year equals regression!!

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              • #8
                Wrong thread
                Last edited by Coach McGuirk; 11-17-2008, 09:26 AM.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by RockyBalboa View Post
                  Increasing his stats across the board in virtually every category and leading his team to thus far a better record than last year equals regression!!
                  Are you telling me Rocky he does not lock in? Are you telling me against AFA at the end of the half he forced a ball to Pita in double or triple coverage when George running the same route on the other side of the field had single coverage?

                  Are you telling me that TCU didn't sit on the seam routes and yet Hall forced the ball again and again. Are telling me this hasn't happened against almost every team?

                  Are you telling me Hall did not force the ball to Collie against USU but USU is soooo bad it didn't matter?
                  Last edited by tooblue; 11-17-2008, 01:14 PM.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by tooblue View Post
                    Are telling me Rocky he does not lock in? Are telling me against AFA at the end of the half he forced a ball to Pita in double or triple coverage when George running the same route on the other side of the field had single coverage?

                    Are you telling me that TCU didn't sit on the seam routes and yet Hall forced the ball again and again. Are telling me this hasn't happened against almost every team?

                    Are you telling me Hall did not force the ball to Collie against USU but USU is soooo bad it didn't matter?
                    I'm telling you that Hall is having a better year than last year.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by RockyBalboa View Post
                      I'm telling you that Hall is having a better year than last year.
                      Maybe he means Hall has regressed from where he was earlier this season. Though I'm not sure I'd agree with that. I think the level of competition has increased.
                      Prepare to put mustard on those words, for you will soon be consuming them, along with this slice of humble pie that comes direct from the oven of shame set at gas mark “egg on your face”! -- Moss

                      There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that, and everything else is cream cheese. --Coach Finstock

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by tooblue View Post
                        The factors:
                        1. Anae refuses to run the football. Only when he committed to the run did the cougars take control of the AFA game. It has been this way all season. To a degree I understand why he throws as much as he does -- he’s trying to take what the defense gives him. But that feeds the next factor that will result in a loss.
                        2. Hall has regressed this season. He locks in on his favorite receivers and forces the ball. He is not making his reads. Good opposing defensive coaches see this on film and exploit it. TCU did and Whittingham most certainly will. That leads to the next factor that will result in a loss.
                        3. Pitta is injured. One of if not his favorite receiver will not play or shouldn’t play. If he does he will be seriously hampered. You take away Pita and that leaves Collie. Anae refuses to run the ball so what is there left to do but to force it to Collie. The Utes secondary is will shut him down with double teams. The O will resort to trickeration and will not have sustained drives which leads to the next factor that will result in a loss.
                        4. The Defense will not stop Utah. The Ute O will move the ball at will, especially after the Cougs D has been on the field too long due to the ineffectiveness of the Offense.


                        In the past I have always said this rivalry game is too difficult to predict. However, due to the above factors Utah will win by more than a touchdown. Not a blowout but a convincing win that will be demoralizing for the Cougar faithfull.
                        I agree that the Utes will win, but it isn't going to be because of Max Hall. I agree that Anae needs to not abandon the run if it doesn't give instant returns.

                        I think Utah will win this year because they are a better team. They are a better team because BYU's defense is awful. I don't blame Anae or Hall for that.

                        Now call me stupid if you folks wish, but the statistics indicate the BYU pass game is much better than last year. Last year BYU touted its ball sharing, yadda yadda yadda. Sharing the ball is a lot like calling ugly girls "sweet spirits." There is no reason to share the ball this year because the top two receivers are dominating. Yes, BYU played like shit against TCU. I think the reasons are far more complex than Hall locking onto one receiver. I think the more plausible explanation was BYU was overwhelmed by TCU's speed. I don't know if Utah is quite that fast and I doubt BYU fails to show up with emotion.

                        A good benchmark for Hall should be his performance last year against TCU. He threw for 300 yards with a 60% completion percentage. He had 1 TD and 1 INT. If he can do a better than that, in that he can raise his completion percentage to 65% and throw 2 tds with no ints, I think BYU has a real shot. I expect the offense to play significantly better than they did against TCU. I expect similar results from the defense.
                        Do Your Damnedest In An Ostentatious Manner All The Time!
                        -General George S. Patton

                        I'm choosing to mostly ignore your fatuity here and instead overwhelm you with so much data that you'll maybe, just maybe, realize that you have reams to read on this subject before you can contribute meaningfully to any conversation on this topic.
                        -DOCTOR Wuap

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                        • #13
                          I agree that Hall telegraphs his passes sometimes. And even when he doesn't, stats show that he will go to Collie and Pitta most of the time, so I think the opposing secondary will play the odds every time.

                          That being said, Hall has improved his personal stats and the team is 10-1 right now, as opposed to 9-2 the past 2 years.

                          I think that his improved stats despite his tendency to lock in shows that he is developing "it,"....or the intangible ability to create out of little or nothing.

                          Also, look at Collie's receiving stats for the season. Not too shabby, eh?

                          Basically the story here is: "You know where I am going to throw the ball. I know where I am going to throw the ball. Everyone knows where I am going to throw the ball. And for the most part, you cannot stop me."
                          Fitter. Happier. More Productive.

                          sigpic

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                          • #14
                            First of all Pitta will play, they will shoot him up and he will be fine.

                            George is very good as well in fact I would say that he is the 2nd best tightend in the conference.

                            Hall has completed passes to 8 different receivers against CSU, 7 against SDSU, and 7 against AFA.

                            He has completed passes to 15 different receivers this year, the leader in the NCAA is 18.

                            He is doing fine spreading the ball around. He has the number 1 receiver in the country in terms of yards and yards per game on his team, as well as the number 1 tightend in the country. 2 1000 yard receivers with 2 games left.

                            He is completing 72% of his passes, he has 34 tds and only 8 ints this season. I am sorry but regressing is not the correct word. If you would have said he is not perfect I would agree with you, but he is pretty damn close.

                            Also Airforce had a very good D coming in to that game, giving up the same amount of points per game as Utah. They were also top 20 in passing defense, and 30th in total defense before we torched them.
                            *Banned*

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by cougjunkie View Post
                              First of all Pitta will play, they will shoot him up and he will be fine.

                              George is very good as well in fact I would say that he is the 2nd best tightend in the conference.

                              Hall has completed passes to 8 different receivers against CSU, 7 against SDSU, and 7 against AFA.

                              He has completed passes to 15 different receivers this year, the leader in the NCAA is 18.

                              He is doing fine spreading the ball around. He has the number 1 receiver in the country in terms of yards and yards per game on his team, as well as the number 1 tightend in the country. 2 1000 yard receivers with 2 games left.

                              He is completing 72% of his passes, he has 34 tds and only 8 ints this season. I am sorry but regressing is not the correct word. If you would have said he is not perfect I would agree with you, but he is pretty damn close.

                              Also Airforce had a very good D coming in to that game, giving up the same amount of points per game as Utah. They were also top 20 in passing defense, and 30th in total defense before we torched them.
                              Regressing is the right word. He throws the ball to Pita and Collie over 50% of the time. Against inferior competition that's ok but Utah's offense will not sputter like AFA's and that's a significant difference. Look what happened at TCU when he forced the ball ... the same will happen at RES and the result will be BYU losing by a touchdown or more.

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