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tooblue
11-17-2008, 08:28 AM
The factors:


Anae refuses to run the football. Only when he committed to the run did the cougars take control of the AFA game. It has been this way all season. To a degree I understand why he throws as much as he does -- he’s trying to take what the defense gives him. But that feeds the next factor that will result in a loss.

Hall has regressed this season. He locks in on his favorite receivers and forces the ball. He is not making his reads. Good opposing defensive coaches see this on film and exploit it. TCU did and Whittingham most certainly will. That leads to the next factor that will result in a loss.

Pitta is injured. One of if not his favorite receiver will not play or shouldn’t play. If he does he will be seriously hampered. You take away Pita and that leaves Collie. Anae refuses to run the ball so what is there left to do but to force it to Collie. The Utes secondary is will shut him down with double teams. The O will resort to trickeration and will not have sustained drives which leads to the next factor that will result in a loss.

The Defense will not stop Utah. The Ute O will move the ball at will, especially after the Cougs D has been on the field too long due to the ineffectiveness of the Offense.


In the past I have always said this rivalry game is too difficult to predict. However, due to the above factors Utah will win by more than a touchdown. Not a blowout but a convincing win that will be demoralizing for the Cougar faithfull.

Clark Addison
11-17-2008, 08:43 AM
The factors:

[LIST=1]
Hall has regressed this season. He locks in on his favorite receivers and forces the ball. He is not making his reads. Good opposing defensive coaches see this on film and exploit it. TCU did and Whittingham most certainly will. That leads to the next factor that will result in a loss.


At the risk of outing myself on the other board, how do you figure Hall has regressed? Everything is better than last year. His completion percentage is up from 60% to 72%, his yards per attempt from 7.8 to 8.8, his rating from 138 to 170, his TD/Interception ration from 2.5 to 4.3. What possible indication is there that he is worse now than he was last season? If it is true that he is locking onto a couple of receivers, it appears to have been a good thing.

Mormon Red Death
11-17-2008, 08:44 AM
Why do you discount Reed and George so much. To be honest George isnt that huge dropoff from Pitta

RockyBalboa
11-17-2008, 08:50 AM
Hall has regressed?

Um....okay.

tooblue
11-17-2008, 09:06 AM
At the risk of outing myself on the other board, how do you figure Hall has regressed? Everything is better than last year. His completion percentage is up from 60% to 72%, his yards per attempt from 7.8 to 8.8, his rating from 138 to 170, his TD/Interception ration from 2.5 to 4.3. What possible indication is there that he is worse now than he was last season? If it is true that he is locking onto a couple of receivers, it appears to have been a good thing.

He's throwing --or should we say forcing the ball-- to two above average receivers that will make most QB's, especially in this conference, look above average.

I'm not saying Hall sucks, I'm saying he is zoned in, does not make his reads, forces the ball and that IS regression. When the team loses one and possibly both due to a good defensive backfield it's not a good thing!

tooblue
11-17-2008, 09:10 AM
Why do you discount Reed and George so much. To be honest George isnt that huge dropoff from Pitta

I'm not discounting those two. He has forced the ball this season instead of making the reads. With weak teams on the schedule it has resulted in lot's of points. But what happened when a D came along that could play both those guys straight up?

Halls stats are great due in part to Hall, those two receivers but in equal part to the fact BYU throws the ball on almost EVERY down. And it's inconceivable to me considering the line BYU has and the two RB's in the backfield!

RockyBalboa
11-17-2008, 09:22 AM
I'm not discounting those two. He has forced the ball this season instead of making the reads. With weak teams on the schedule it has resulted in lot's of points. But what happened when a D came along that could play both those guys straight up?

Halls stats are great due in part to Hall, those two receivers but in equal part to the fact BYU throws the ball on almost EVERY down. And it's inconceivable to me considering the line BYU has and the two RB's in the backfield!

Increasing his stats across the board in virtually every category and leading his team to thus far a better record than last year equals regression!!

Coach McGuirk
11-17-2008, 09:23 AM
Wrong thread

tooblue
11-17-2008, 09:38 AM
Increasing his stats across the board in virtually every category and leading his team to thus far a better record than last year equals regression!!

Are you telling me Rocky he does not lock in? Are you telling me against AFA at the end of the half he forced a ball to Pita in double or triple coverage when George running the same route on the other side of the field had single coverage?

Are you telling me that TCU didn't sit on the seam routes and yet Hall forced the ball again and again. Are telling me this hasn't happened against almost every team?

Are you telling me Hall did not force the ball to Collie against USU but USU is soooo bad it didn't matter?

RockyBalboa
11-17-2008, 09:48 AM
Are telling me Rocky he does not lock in? Are telling me against AFA at the end of the half he forced a ball to Pita in double or triple coverage when George running the same route on the other side of the field had single coverage?

Are you telling me that TCU didn't sit on the seam routes and yet Hall forced the ball again and again. Are telling me this hasn't happened against almost every team?

Are you telling me Hall did not force the ball to Collie against USU but USU is soooo bad it didn't matter?

I'm telling you that Hall is having a better year than last year.

Donuthole
11-17-2008, 10:15 AM
I'm telling you that Hall is having a better year than last year.

Maybe he means Hall has regressed from where he was earlier this season. Though I'm not sure I'd agree with that. I think the level of competition has increased.

Goatnapper'96
11-17-2008, 10:18 AM
The factors:


Anae refuses to run the football. Only when he committed to the run did the cougars take control of the AFA game. It has been this way all season. To a degree I understand why he throws as much as he does -- he’s trying to take what the defense gives him. But that feeds the next factor that will result in a loss.

Hall has regressed this season. He locks in on his favorite receivers and forces the ball. He is not making his reads. Good opposing defensive coaches see this on film and exploit it. TCU did and Whittingham most certainly will. That leads to the next factor that will result in a loss.

Pitta is injured. One of if not his favorite receiver will not play or shouldn’t play. If he does he will be seriously hampered. You take away Pita and that leaves Collie. Anae refuses to run the ball so what is there left to do but to force it to Collie. The Utes secondary is will shut him down with double teams. The O will resort to trickeration and will not have sustained drives which leads to the next factor that will result in a loss.

The Defense will not stop Utah. The Ute O will move the ball at will, especially after the Cougs D has been on the field too long due to the ineffectiveness of the Offense.


In the past I have always said this rivalry game is too difficult to predict. However, due to the above factors Utah will win by more than a touchdown. Not a blowout but a convincing win that will be demoralizing for the Cougar faithfull.

I agree that the Utes will win, but it isn't going to be because of Max Hall. I agree that Anae needs to not abandon the run if it doesn't give instant returns.

I think Utah will win this year because they are a better team. They are a better team because BYU's defense is awful. I don't blame Anae or Hall for that.

Now call me stupid if you folks wish, but the statistics indicate the BYU pass game is much better than last year. Last year BYU touted its ball sharing, yadda yadda yadda. Sharing the ball is a lot like calling ugly girls "sweet spirits." There is no reason to share the ball this year because the top two receivers are dominating. Yes, BYU played like shit against TCU. I think the reasons are far more complex than Hall locking onto one receiver. I think the more plausible explanation was BYU was overwhelmed by TCU's speed. I don't know if Utah is quite that fast and I doubt BYU fails to show up with emotion.

A good benchmark for Hall should be his performance last year against TCU. He threw for 300 yards with a 60% completion percentage. He had 1 TD and 1 INT. If he can do a better than that, in that he can raise his completion percentage to 65% and throw 2 tds with no ints, I think BYU has a real shot. I expect the offense to play significantly better than they did against TCU. I expect similar results from the defense.

TripletDaddy
11-17-2008, 10:18 AM
I agree that Hall telegraphs his passes sometimes. And even when he doesn't, stats show that he will go to Collie and Pitta most of the time, so I think the opposing secondary will play the odds every time.

That being said, Hall has improved his personal stats and the team is 10-1 right now, as opposed to 9-2 the past 2 years.

I think that his improved stats despite his tendency to lock in shows that he is developing "it,"....or the intangible ability to create out of little or nothing.

Also, look at Collie's receiving stats for the season. Not too shabby, eh?

Basically the story here is: "You know where I am going to throw the ball. I know where I am going to throw the ball. Everyone knows where I am going to throw the ball. And for the most part, you cannot stop me."

cougjunkie
11-17-2008, 10:26 AM
First of all Pitta will play, they will shoot him up and he will be fine.

George is very good as well in fact I would say that he is the 2nd best tightend in the conference.

Hall has completed passes to 8 different receivers against CSU, 7 against SDSU, and 7 against AFA.

He has completed passes to 15 different receivers this year, the leader in the NCAA is 18.

He is doing fine spreading the ball around. He has the number 1 receiver in the country in terms of yards and yards per game on his team, as well as the number 1 tightend in the country. 2 1000 yard receivers with 2 games left.

He is completing 72% of his passes, he has 34 tds and only 8 ints this season. I am sorry but regressing is not the correct word. If you would have said he is not perfect I would agree with you, but he is pretty damn close.

Also Airforce had a very good D coming in to that game, giving up the same amount of points per game as Utah. They were also top 20 in passing defense, and 30th in total defense before we torched them.

tooblue
11-17-2008, 01:19 PM
First of all Pitta will play, they will shoot him up and he will be fine.

George is very good as well in fact I would say that he is the 2nd best tightend in the conference.

Hall has completed passes to 8 different receivers against CSU, 7 against SDSU, and 7 against AFA.

He has completed passes to 15 different receivers this year, the leader in the NCAA is 18.

He is doing fine spreading the ball around. He has the number 1 receiver in the country in terms of yards and yards per game on his team, as well as the number 1 tightend in the country. 2 1000 yard receivers with 2 games left.

He is completing 72% of his passes, he has 34 tds and only 8 ints this season. I am sorry but regressing is not the correct word. If you would have said he is not perfect I would agree with you, but he is pretty damn close.

Also Airforce had a very good D coming in to that game, giving up the same amount of points per game as Utah. They were also top 20 in passing defense, and 30th in total defense before we torched them.

Regressing is the right word. He throws the ball to Pita and Collie over 50% of the time. Against inferior competition that's ok but Utah's offense will not sputter like AFA's and that's a significant difference. Look what happened at TCU when he forced the ball ... the same will happen at RES and the result will be BYU losing by a touchdown or more.

YardTime
11-17-2008, 02:24 PM
Why do you discount Reed and George so much. To be honest George isnt that huge dropoff from Pitta

I agree with you about George.

YardTime
11-17-2008, 02:33 PM
Regressing is the right word. He throws the ball to Pita and Collie over 50% of the time. Against inferior competition that's ok but Utah's offense will not sputter like AFA's and that's a significant difference. Look what happened at TCU when he forced the ball ... the same will happen at RES and the result will be BYU losing by a touchdown or more.

Wow. Simply wow. There is no using logic with toolblue.

Coach McGuirk
11-17-2008, 03:22 PM
Regressing is the right word. He throws the ball to Pita and Collie over 50% of the time.

Graham Harrell throws to his top two receivers 40% of the time.
Graham Harrell throws to his next two receivers 27% of the time.
Graham Harrell throws to his next two receivers 18% of the time.

Max hall throws to his top two receivers 57% of the time.
Max Hall throws to his next two receivers 26% of the time.
Max Hall throws to his next two receivers 10% of the time.

So GH throws top 6 85%
and MH throws top 6 93%

note, of max halls top 6 receivers, the top 3 have played in all 11 games. #4 missed 2 games and #5 and #6 have missed 1 game.

of Graham Harrell's top 6 receivers, none has missed a game.


In addition, who, in this list of venerable all stars would you like to see have more catches instead of Pitta and Collie?

UNGA, Harvey
REED, Michael
GEORGE, Andrew
VAKAPUNA, Fui
WHITE, Reed
ASHWORTH, Luke
CHAMBERS, O'Neil
KOZLOWSKI, Tyler
KARIYA, Bryan
DILUIGI, JJ
HAFOKA, Spencer
LATU, Wayne
PRITCHARD, Iona

after all that and knowing that Michael Reed missed 2 games, tell me again why Hall is regressing?

tooblue
11-17-2008, 03:40 PM
Graham Harrell throws to his top two receivers 40% of the time.
Graham Harrell throws to his next two receivers 27% of the time.
Graham Harrell throws to his next two receivers 18% of the time.

Max hall throws to his top two receivers 57% of the time.
Max Hall throws to his next two receivers 26% of the time.
Max Hall throws to his next two receivers 10% of the time.

So GH throw top 6 85%
and MH throws top 93%

note, of max halls top 6 receivers, the top 3 have played in all 11 games. #4 missed 2 games and #5 and #6 have missed 1 game.

of Graham Harrell's top 6 receivers, none has missed a game.


In addition, who, in this list of venerable all stars would you like to see have more catches instead of Pitta and Collie?

UNGA, Harvey
REED, Michael
GEORGE, Andrew
VAKAPUNA, Fui
WHITE, Reed
ASHWORTH, Luke
CHAMBERS, O'Neil
KOZLOWSKI, Tyler
KARIYA, Bryan
DILUIGI, JJ
HAFOKA, Spencer
LATU, Wayne
PRITCHARD, Iona

after all that and knowing that Michael Reed missed 2 games, tell me again why Hall is regressing?

You're comparing apples to oranges. But consider that Harrell has 0 losses against significantly better competition week in and week out. The ONE time Hall faced comparable competition on his schedule BYU lost.

Hall has forced the ball into double coverage all season and got away with it except at TCU. He will not get away with it at Utah.

Actually, I would rather see them hand off the ball more and live with 4 yards and a cloud of dust.

Coach McGuirk
11-17-2008, 03:43 PM
You're comparing apples to oranges. But consider that Harrell has 0 losses against significantly better competition week in and week out. The ONE time Hall faced comperable competition on his schedule BYU lost.

Hall has forced the ball into double coverage all season and got away with it except at TCU. He will not get away with it at Utah.

Actually, I would rather see them hand off the ball more and live with 4 yards and a cloud of dust.


Ok, so against TCU, who on the list was open and should have gotten the ball? Or could it be that TT has a deeper rotation of receivers that can get open against the better competition.

tooblue
11-17-2008, 03:49 PM
Ok, so against TCU, who on the list was open and should have gotten the ball? Or could it be that TT has a deeper rotation of receivers that can get open against the better competition.

Apples to oranges and not worth the effort.

Ask any Ute here what their D's weakness is? Ask them what their D's strength is? Ask those who went to the Michigan game who sat in a stupor and watched Michigan stupidly refuse to ram the ball down their throats ... Hall will force the ball into coverage and Anae will say I'm taking what the D gives me.

Pita will not be 100%. The D will key on Collie. Hall will force the ball and BYU will lose by a touchdown or more.

Coach McGuirk
11-17-2008, 03:53 PM
Apples to oranges and not worth the effort.

Ask any Ute here what their D's weakness is? Ask them what their D's strength is? Ask those who went to the Michigan game who sat in a stupor and watched Michigan stupidly refuse to ram the ball down their throats ... Hall will force the ball into coverage and Anae will say I'm taking what the D gives me.

Pita will not be 100%. The D will key on Collie. Hall will force the ball and BYU will lose by a touchdown or more.

I am all for running the ball more and I think we need to do that. Just don't blame this on Hall, the numbers don't support it.

smokymountainrain
11-17-2008, 03:55 PM
Maybe he means Hall has regressed from where he was earlier this season. Though I'm not sure I'd agree with that. I think the level of competition has increased.

Even if that's what toolblue is referring to, Hall's passer rating in his last four games is 193. He doesn't have a leg to stand on with that comment.

tooblue
11-17-2008, 03:57 PM
I am all for running the ball more and I think we need to do that. Just don't blame this on Hall, the numbers don't support it.

I'm not blaming anything on Hall. I place ALL of the blame squarely on the shoulders of Anae -he is responsible for what has gone on. And I like Anae's offense a great deal.

YardTime
11-17-2008, 04:31 PM
I'm not blaming anything on Hall. I place ALL of the blame squarely on the shoulders of Anae -he is responsible for what has gone on. And I like Anae's offense a great deal.

So toolblue (can I call you tool for short?), is Anae to blame for Hall's "regressing"?

TIA

ERCougar
11-17-2008, 04:44 PM
Apples to oranges and not worth the effort.

Ask any Ute here what their D's weakness is? Ask them what their D's strength is? Ask those who went to the Michigan game who sat in a stupor and watched Michigan stupidly refuse to ram the ball down their throats ... Hall will force the ball into coverage and Anae will say I'm taking what the D gives me.

Pita will not be 100%. The D will key on Collie. Hall will force the ball and BYU will lose by a touchdown or more.

Utah has the 2nd best rushing defense and 5th best passing defense in the MWC. You sure we should just ram it down their throat?

ERCougar
11-17-2008, 04:45 PM
First of all Pitta will play, they will shoot him up and he will be fine.

George is very good as well in fact I would say that he is the 2nd best tightend in the conference.

Hall has completed passes to 8 different receivers against CSU, 7 against SDSU, and 7 against AFA.

He has completed passes to 15 different receivers this year, the leader in the NCAA is 18.

He is doing fine spreading the ball around. He has the number 1 receiver in the country in terms of yards and yards per game on his team, as well as the number 1 tightend in the country. 2 1000 yard receivers with 2 games left.

He is completing 72% of his passes, he has 34 tds and only 8 ints this season. I am sorry but regressing is not the correct word. If you would have said he is not perfect I would agree with you, but he is pretty damn close.

Also Airforce had a very good D coming in to that game, giving up the same amount of points per game as Utah. They were also top 20 in passing defense, and 30th in total defense before we torched them.

Don't confuse us all with facts. They're clearly wrong.

tooblue
11-17-2008, 05:20 PM
Don't confuse us all with facts. They're clearly wrong.

BYU should've throttled AFA, especially considering the fact that the defense played a little better than adequate much of the game and AFA was totally inept offensively.

I stand by my prediction and assessment of the season. Hall has great numbers because BYU passes on every down. The offensive game plan that helped this team win is the game plan that lost this team the TCU game. If it is the same game plan going into RES then BYU will lose by a touchdown or more.

cougjunkie
11-17-2008, 05:30 PM
BYU should've throttled AFA, especially considering the fact that the defense played a little better than adequate much of the game and AFA was totally inept offensively.

I stand by prediction and assessment of the season. Hall has great numbers because BYU passes on every down. The offensive game plan that helped this team win is the game plan that lost this team the TCU game. If it is the same game plan going into RES then BYU will lose by a touchdown or more.

I am sorry I could buy your argument earlier but this has become a joke. Great numbers because they pass on every down? Ummm wouldnt that skew the numbers a bit. Ok maybe lots of yardage and tds because of how much they pass. But a 72% completion rate? 6th in the nation in pass efficiency, and less than 2% of his passes are ints. Which is top 10 in the nation.

390 pass attempts and 8 ints. Compared to the other so called great QBs in college football:

Colt Mccoy: 347 pass attempts, 7 ints
Sam Bradford: 330 attempts, 6 ints
Chase Daniel: 400 attempts, 11 ints
David Johnson: 287 attempts, 11 ints
Mark Sanchez: 268 attempts, 7 ints

He more than measures up. To say that he has good numbers because of his pass attempts is ridiculous.

tooblue
11-17-2008, 05:38 PM
I am sorry I could buy your argument earlier but this has become a joke. Great numbers because they pass on every down? Ummm wouldnt that skew the numbers a bit. Ok maybe lots of yardage and tds because of how much they pass. But a 72% completion rate? 6th in the nation in pass efficiency, and less than 2% of his passes are ints. Which is top 10 in the nation.

390 pass attempts and 8 ints. Compared to the other so called great QBs in college football:

Colt Mccoy: 347 pass attempts, 7 ints
Sam Bradford: 330 attempts, 6 ints
Chase Daniel: 400 attempts, 11 ints
David Johnson: 287 attempts, 11 ints
Mark Sanchez: 268 attempts, 7 ints

He more than measures up. To say that he has good numbers because of his pass attempts is ridiculous.

His pass numbers against Mountain West competition!

smokymountainrain
11-17-2008, 09:05 PM
His pass numbers against Mountain West competition!

Yes and he also has MWC caliber talent around him. That argument works both ways.

Coach McGuirk
11-17-2008, 09:14 PM
Yes and he also has MWC caliber talent around him. That argument works both ways.

And either way, the MWC, by consensus, is considered the 4th or 5th best conference this year.

ERCougar
11-18-2008, 06:37 AM
His pass numbers against Mountain West competition!

True...he doesn't have to deal with those stiff Big 12 defenses...:confused:

Surfah
11-18-2008, 06:41 AM
Yes and he also has MWC caliber talent around him. That argument works both ways.

It does, but Unga, Pitta, Collie and most of our OL are far better than typical MWC talent. I'd even throw Fui in there too.

Clark Addison
11-18-2008, 06:43 AM
His pass numbers against Mountain West competition!

Who were his pass numbers against last year? Did we play in the Pac-10 and I missed it?

tooblue
11-18-2008, 06:47 AM
Yes and he also has MWC caliber talent around him. That argument works both ways.

It does indeed cut both ways ... and according to you Pita and Collie are only Mountain West Caliber talents!

I did however state that WHEN BYU faced a big 12 caliber team forcing the ball to those two guys resulted in a loss. I have stated that I think TCU, BYU and Utah are big 12 caliber teams. But sticking with your logic TCU, BYU and Utah are not big 12 caliber teams -- TCU did lose to OU so ...

tooblue
11-18-2008, 06:49 AM
True...he doesn't have to deal with those stiff Big 12 defenses...:confused:

And those Big 12 Qb's don't have to face Mountain West defenses ... Oh, wait OU did face TCU and ...

tooblue
11-18-2008, 06:51 AM
Who were his pass numbers against last year? Did we play in the Pac-10 and I missed it?

Now we are moving on to talk of the PAC 10? lol

Analyze what you've seen this season and make a prediction.

tooblue
11-22-2008, 06:11 PM
so ... it's unfortunate.