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Utah 2009 Prediction Contest: Week #12 Results

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  • #1

    Utah 2009 Prediction Contest: Week #12 Results

    Week #12 (game #11) of the prediction contest

    Overall standings as of the SDSU game

    Code:
       +-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  |               poster   rank    total   points   win     mov      df   bpred   opred |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |       PaloAltoCougar      1   786.47    68.26    20   21.43   26.83      31      13 |
  |        Jeff Lebowski      2   781.17    64.61    20   20.00   24.61      34      17 |
  |           Rickomatic      3   771.01    78.79    20   32.86   25.93      42      16 |
  |          chrisrenrut      4   767.50    83.41    20   34.29   29.12      41      14 |
  |                byu71      5   767.12    65.86    20   20.00   25.86      31      14 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |          I.J. Reilly      6   744.24    48.76    20   10.00   18.76      27      17 |
  |            Hot Lunch      7   734.62    56.28    20   15.71   20.57      34      20 |
  |               Surfah      8   729.81    31.72    20    0.00   11.72      24      21 |
  |          Flystripper      9   726.80    58.28    20   15.71   22.56      31      17 |
  |           BoylenOver     10   719.94    67.71    20   27.14   20.57      42      20 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |       Jarid in Cedar     11   705.71    80.00    20   30.00   30.00      38      14 |
  |                 Borg     12   705.45    66.51    20   21.43   25.09      35      17 |
  |            bluegoose     13   705.17    74.83    20   25.71   29.12      35      14 |
  | New Mexican Disaster     14   686.69    33.99    20    1.43   12.56      26      22 |
  |       il Padrino Ute     15   670.13    85.25    20   34.29   30.96      40      13 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |                Solon     16   668.98    55.26    20   15.71   19.55      35      21 |
  |       Sleeping in EQ     17   660.81    33.69    20    1.43   12.26      27      23 |
  |   HuskyFreeNorthwest     18   657.91    67.08    20   22.86   24.22      37      18 |
  |         DrumNFeather     19   646.17    64.25    20   35.71    8.54      52      24 |
  |        Clark Addison     20   628.12    47.64    20   10.00   17.64      24      14 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |                  CJF     21   579.92    48.76    20   10.00   18.76      27      17 |
  |     Mormon Red Death     22   560.89        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |        Coach McGuirk     23   554.29    47.87    20   11.43   16.44      34      23 |
  |               DU Ute     24   505.87    70.34    20   31.43   18.91      45      20 |
  |           cougjunkie     25   491.00     0.31     0    0.00    0.31      24      31 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |                U-Ute     26   483.47    76.04    20   31.43   24.61      42      17 |
  |              falafel     27   463.88        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |        Blueintheface     28   459.61    55.26    20   15.71   19.55      35      21 |
  |               Sizzle     29   430.29        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |                Brian     30   420.19        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |             LiveCoug     31   406.11        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |           SeattleUte     32   371.57        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            OrangeUte     33   364.36        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |              UteStar     34   342.70        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |              scottie     35   329.00        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |       WashingtonCoug     36   309.20        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |        Goatnapper'96     37   297.53    42.86    20   11.43   11.43      38      27 |
  |            SoCalCoug     38   295.49        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               LA Ute     39   259.66    75.09    20   30.00   25.09      41      17 |
  |       NorthShoreCoug     40   239.45        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |             beefytee     41   216.34        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |          RockyBalboa     42   202.72        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |    Color Me Badd Fan     43   182.23        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |              snowcat     44   175.32        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            creekster     45   158.47        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              ewth8tr     46   121.92        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |    smokymountainrain     47   111.01        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            Katy Lied     48   108.82        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |           Drunk Tank     49   108.58        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |          CardiacCoug     50   104.81        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              UtahDan     51    91.43        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |         TripletDaddy     52    88.37        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |           2 Tru Blue     53    85.86        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |          Medfordcoug     54    85.04        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |         Portland Ute     55    82.86        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |            Donuthole     56    81.33        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |         BlueNtheFace     57    80.65        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |                YOhio     58    78.89        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |                  8BR     59    77.33        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               Viking     60    73.30        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              nikuman     61    73.28        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |           CougarFan3     62    63.20        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |           doctorcoug     63    56.70        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |          Eddie Jones     64    48.45     0.00     0    0.00    0.00       0      14 |
  |             BlueHair     65    47.14        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |             The_Tick     66    47.10        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |             camleish     67    27.14        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |        lady duckcoug     68    20.00        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |             landpoke     69     0.00        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  +-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Standings sorted by SDSU game prediction points

    Code:
      +-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  |               poster   rank    total   points   win     mov      df   bpred   opred |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |       il Padrino Ute     15   670.13    85.25    20   34.29   30.96      40      13 |
  |          chrisrenrut      4   767.50    83.41    20   34.29   29.12      41      14 |
  |       Jarid in Cedar     11   705.71    80.00    20   30.00   30.00      38      14 |
  |           Rickomatic      3   771.01    78.79    20   32.86   25.93      42      16 |
  |                U-Ute     26   483.47    76.04    20   31.43   24.61      42      17 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |               LA Ute     39   259.66    75.09    20   30.00   25.09      41      17 |
  |            bluegoose     13   705.17    74.83    20   25.71   29.12      35      14 |
  |               DU Ute     24   505.87    70.34    20   31.43   18.91      45      20 |
  |       PaloAltoCougar      1   786.47    68.26    20   21.43   26.83      31      13 |
  |           BoylenOver     10   719.94    67.71    20   27.14   20.57      42      20 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |   HuskyFreeNorthwest     18   657.91    67.08    20   22.86   24.22      37      18 |
  |                 Borg     12   705.45    66.51    20   21.43   25.09      35      17 |
  |                byu71      5   767.12    65.86    20   20.00   25.86      31      14 |
  |        Jeff Lebowski      2   781.17    64.61    20   20.00   24.61      34      17 |
  |         DrumNFeather     19   646.17    64.25    20   35.71    8.54      52      24 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |          Flystripper      9   726.80    58.28    20   15.71   22.56      31      17 |
  |            Hot Lunch      7   734.62    56.28    20   15.71   20.57      34      20 |
  |                Solon     16   668.98    55.26    20   15.71   19.55      35      21 |
  |        Blueintheface     28   459.61    55.26    20   15.71   19.55      35      21 |
  |          I.J. Reilly      6   744.24    48.76    20   10.00   18.76      27      17 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |                  CJF     21   579.92    48.76    20   10.00   18.76      27      17 |
  |        Coach McGuirk     23   554.29    47.87    20   11.43   16.44      34      23 |
  |        Clark Addison     20   628.12    47.64    20   10.00   17.64      24      14 |
  |        Goatnapper'96     37   297.53    42.86    20   11.43   11.43      38      27 |
  | New Mexican Disaster     14   686.69    33.99    20    1.43   12.56      26      22 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |       Sleeping in EQ     17   660.81    33.69    20    1.43   12.26      27      23 |
  |               Surfah      8   729.81    31.72    20    0.00   11.72      24      21 |
  |           cougjunkie     25   491.00     0.31     0    0.00    0.31      24      31 |
  |          Eddie Jones     64    48.45     0.00     0    0.00    0.00       0      14 |
  +-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

    Comment

    • #3
      Overall standings sorted by poster name

      Code:
        +-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
  |               poster   rank    total   points   win     mov      df   bpred   opred |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |           2 Tru Blue     53    85.86        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |                  8BR     59    77.33        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |             beefytee     41   216.34        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            bluegoose     13   705.17    74.83    20   25.71   29.12      35      14 |
  |             BlueHair     65    47.14        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |        Blueintheface     28   459.61    55.26    20   15.71   19.55      35      21 |
  |         BlueNtheFace     57    80.65        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |                 Borg     12   705.45    66.51    20   21.43   25.09      35      17 |
  |           BoylenOver     10   719.94    67.71    20   27.14   20.57      42      20 |
  |                Brian     30   420.19        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |                byu71      5   767.12    65.86    20   20.00   25.86      31      14 |
  |             camleish     67    27.14        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |          CardiacCoug     50   104.81        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |          chrisrenrut      4   767.50    83.41    20   34.29   29.12      41      14 |
  |                  CJF     21   579.92    48.76    20   10.00   18.76      27      17 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |        Clark Addison     20   628.12    47.64    20   10.00   17.64      24      14 |
  |        Coach McGuirk     23   554.29    47.87    20   11.43   16.44      34      23 |
  |    Color Me Badd Fan     43   182.23        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |           CougarFan3     62    63.20        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |           cougjunkie     25   491.00     0.31     0    0.00    0.31      24      31 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |            creekster     45   158.47        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |           doctorcoug     63    56.70        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            Donuthole     56    81.33        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |         DrumNFeather     19   646.17    64.25    20   35.71    8.54      52      24 |
  |           Drunk Tank     49   108.58        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |               DU Ute     24   505.87    70.34    20   31.43   18.91      45      20 |
  |          Eddie Jones     64    48.45     0.00     0    0.00    0.00       0      14 |
  |              ewth8tr     46   121.92        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |              falafel     27   463.88        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |          Flystripper      9   726.80    58.28    20   15.71   22.56      31      17 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |        Goatnapper'96     37   297.53    42.86    20   11.43   11.43      38      27 |
  |            Hot Lunch      7   734.62    56.28    20   15.71   20.57      34      20 |
  |   HuskyFreeNorthwest     18   657.91    67.08    20   22.86   24.22      37      18 |
  |          I.J. Reilly      6   744.24    48.76    20   10.00   18.76      27      17 |
  |       il Padrino Ute     15   670.13    85.25    20   34.29   30.96      40      13 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |       Jarid in Cedar     11   705.71    80.00    20   30.00   30.00      38      14 |
  |        Jeff Lebowski      2   781.17    64.61    20   20.00   24.61      34      17 |
  |            Katy Lied     48   108.82        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               LA Ute     39   259.66    75.09    20   30.00   25.09      41      17 |
  |        lady duckcoug     68    20.00        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |             landpoke     69     0.00        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |             LiveCoug     31   406.11        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |          Medfordcoug     54    85.04        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |     Mormon Red Death     22   560.89        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  | New Mexican Disaster     14   686.69    33.99    20    1.43   12.56      26      22 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              nikuman     61    73.28        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |       NorthShoreCoug     40   239.45        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            OrangeUte     33   364.36        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |       PaloAltoCougar      1   786.47    68.26    20   21.43   26.83      31      13 |
  |         Portland Ute     55    82.86        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |           Rickomatic      3   771.01    78.79    20   32.86   25.93      42      16 |
  |          RockyBalboa     42   202.72        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |              scottie     35   329.00        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |           SeattleUte     32   371.57        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               Sizzle     29   430.29        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |       Sleeping in EQ     17   660.81    33.69    20    1.43   12.26      27      23 |
  |    smokymountainrain     47   111.01        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |              snowcat     44   175.32        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |            SoCalCoug     38   295.49        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |                Solon     16   668.98    55.26    20   15.71   19.55      35      21 |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |               Surfah      8   729.81    31.72    20    0.00   11.72      24      21 |
  |             The_Tick     66    47.10        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |         TripletDaddy     52    88.37        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |                U-Ute     26   483.47    76.04    20   31.43   24.61      42      17 |
  |              UtahDan     51    91.43        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
  |              UteStar     34   342.70        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |               Viking     60    73.30        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |       WashingtonCoug     36   309.20        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  |                YOhio     58    78.89        .     .       .       .       .       . |
  +-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

      Comment

      • #4
        Summary stats

        Code:
            variable |      mean       p50       p25       p75       min       max
-------------+------------------------------------------------------------
       bpred |     33.52     35.00     27.00     40.00      0.00     52.00
       opred |     18.48     17.00     14.00     21.00     13.00     31.00
      winner |      0.93      1.00      1.00      1.00      0.00      1.00
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

        Comment

        • #5
          Comparing the scores in the two different prediction contests, it seems that Utah is much more predictable than BYU.

          Comment

          • #6
            Originally posted by woot View Post
            Comparing the scores in the two different prediction contests, it seems that Utah is much more predictable than BYU.
            That's right; The Florida State, TCU, and Wyoming games didn't generate a lot of prediction points for most people. Utah hasn't had as many unexpected outcomes (TCU was a big loss but the Vegas line was 20). A bet BYU's sum of absolute deviations from the vegas spread is much larger.
            Last edited by pelagius; 11-21-2009, 04:30 PM.

            Comment

            • #7
              It's also nice to see 8 Ute fans in the top 10 for this game.
              "I don't know the origin of said bitch booming."-Art Vandelay
              "Hot Lunch posted awhile back on this. He knows more than anyone except for maybe BO."-Seattle Ute

              Comment

              • #8
                Darn you, PAC. I will catch you this week.
                "There is no creature more arrogant than a self-righteous libertarian on the web, am I right? Those folks are just intolerable."
                "It's no secret that the great American pastime is no longer baseball. Now it's sanctimony." -- Guy Periwinkle, The Nix.
                "Juilliardk N I ibuprofen Hyu I U unhurt u" - creekster

                Comment

                • #9
                  Originally posted by Jeff Lebowski View Post
                  Darn you, PAC. I will catch you this week.
                  Good sir, I saw your warning this week and wasn't sure what you meant, and then I looked back and saw your earlier rebuke for my having duplicated your score guess for last week's (or was it the week before?) game. As Jimmy the Greek is my witness I have never based any of my sage predictions on the estimates of others, nor will I this week.

                  I'll probably post this week's guess Friday (unless I forget, again, to post at all). If you post earlier, I vow not to look at it. At the moment, I don't know what to do. It's simply bad form to pick against BYU, but last week's game, Max's struggles against the U, Senioritis's animal magnetism, and other factors have me very concerned. If I falter this week, I should be given riding time credit for letting the field draft me for many weeks.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    When the season is done, we should merge the two and see who had the best overall predictions.

                    *Only because I think I have a shot.
                    "Nobody listens to Turtle."
                    -Turtle
                    sigpic

                    Comment

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