Expectations for Bronco

[pelagius]

I know there is some discontent out there. Personally, I am pretty happy in terms of BYU's performance. Sure, I am never happy when BYU loses but overall I am pretty happy about the Bronco era. I tend to think BYU should have top 40 seasons 75% of the time and top 20 seasons 25% of the time (while imperfect I used a MOV computer model to evaluate that). Honestly, I am not sure we have the talent base for anything much better than that. I tend to think i good coach should be able to deliver the preceding. Maybe a great coach can deliver a bit more. Still, the Bronco era stacks up pretty well. Here is what we have for 2005-2009:

          Sagarin
Year        Rank
2005          54
2006           7
2007          21
2008          26
2009          27

Sure, I am not crazy about the defensive scheme. There are certainly some parts of the offensive scheme and strategy I think are less than optimal. I am also a fan of as much as possible making religion (with the obvious exception of rooting for a religious school) orthogonal with my football. Yes, Bronco should quit whining about the fans. Still, I just can't get upset. I consider the preceding to be really good results given the BYU's possible talent base.

[byu71]

Given BYU's talent base. Yes, I think that is a true statement.

However, Bronco himself and the crowd I refer to as the "defenders of the faith" are the one's who set themselves up with the lofty expectations. Just yesterday I read a post by one of the "defenders of the faith" who chastised those who hate the honor code and put forth the idea the honor code was actually a plus to the program. No doubt echoing something Bronco has said in the past. Of course the poster went on to indicate basically all faithful members who play football should be encouraged to go where they belong, BYU.

So the expectations are set up that we can compete at the highest level, "given BYU's talent base". Then fans who are let down when those expectations are not met, like happens with any fan base, are chastised as ignorant and not "real" fans.

You can't have it both ways. You can't promise a guy if he pays his tithing his economic situation will be improve and then expect him to be happy if he pays and his situation doesn't improve. Sure you can tell him he isn't paying with the right attitude or that there are other people worse off, but bottom line is you shouldn't be making statements you can't back up.

[Goatnapper'96]

Given BYU's talent base. Yes, I think that is a true statement.

However, Bronco himself and the crowd I refer to as the "defenders of the faith" are the one's who set themselves up with the lofty expectations. Just yesterday I read a post by one of the "defenders of the faith" who chastised those who hate the honor code and put forth the idea the honor code was actually a plus to the program. No doubt echoing something Bronco has said in the past. Of course the poster went on to indicate basically all faithful members who play football should be encouraged to go where they belong, BYU.

So the expectations are set up that we can compete at the highest level, "given BYU's talent base". Then fans who are let down when those expectations are not met, like happens with any fan base, are chastised as ignorant and not "real" fans.

You can't have it both ways. You can't promise a guy if he pays his tithing his economic situation will be improve and then expect him to be happy if he pays and his situation doesn't improve. Sure you can tell him he isn't paying with the right attitude or that there are other people worse off, but bottom line is you shouldn't be making statements you can't back up.

What recommendations do you have for how Bronco can incent the fanbase to donate while still publicly promulgating what an informed fan should know to be realistic expectations?

This is the great conundrum of BYU football. There is a gap between reality and expectations.

That is not to say that I don't think BYU has the capability to make an occassional national splash. I work in the 1/3 by 1/3 rule. I think BYU has the potential to make a national splash, i.e. make a BCS run, every 1 out of 3 years. I think that the many other elements BYU can't control will line up favorably 1 out of those 3 chances. Thus I think it fair to expect BYU to get 'er done about once a decade. I think the best chance was 2006 but BYU didn't get er done enough to get over the top. Another should come in the next couple of years.

[jay santos]

I know there is some discontent out there. Personally, I am pretty happy in terms of BYU's performance. Sure, I am never happy when BYU loses but overall I am pretty happy about the Bronco era. I tend to think BYU should have top 40 seasons 75% of the time and top 20 seasons 25% of the time (while imperfect I used a MOV computer model to evaluate that). Honestly, I am not sure we have the talent base for anything much better than that. I tend to think i good coach should be able to deliver the preceding. Maybe a great coach can deliver a bit more. Still, the Bronco era stacks up pretty well. Here is what we have for 2005-2009:

          Sagarin
Year        Rank
2005          54
2006           7
2007          21
2008          26
2009          27

Sure, I am not crazy about the defensive scheme. There are certainly some parts of the offensive scheme and strategy I think are less than optimal. I am also a fan of as much as possible making religion (with the obvious exception of rooting for a religious school) orthogonal with my football. Yes, Bronco should quit whining about the fans. Still, I just can't get upset. I consider the preceding to be really good results given the BYU's possible talent base.

I pretty much agree. I might have slightly higher expectations for BYU.

I would give Bronco a positive approval rating.

I hate his religion talk. I hate his PR and fan interaction. I think his competency as a defensive coach is overrated. I think he could be a lot more aggressive recruiting non-LDS. I think he could tweak his approach to recruiting and land more of the top tier LDS, but maybe at a cost to the next tier LDS which are more numerous and sometimes just as good in the long run.

I do like that he's willing to change and has a continuous improvement mindset. He's appeared to be stubborn on a lot of issues like the 3-3-5, the Hawaii scheduling model, the recruiting only boy scouts, etc, but he's changed each one of them when he's needed to. His players seem to love him, and that's more important than me loving him. He seems to be able to keep the people two and three layers of management above him away from BYU athletics.

I think his approach will bring a higher floor but maybe a slightly lower ceiling than other coaches. I guess that's alright.

[jay santos]

What recommendations do you have for how Bronco can incent the fanbase to donate while still publicly promulgating what an informed fan should know to be realistic expectations?

This is the great conundrum of BYU football. There is a gap between reality and expectations.

That is not to say that I don't think BYU has the capability to make an occassional national splash. I work in the 1/3 by 1/3 rule. I think BYU has the potential to make a national splash, i.e. make a BCS run, every 1 out of 3 years. I think that the many other elements BYU can't control will line up favorably 1 out of those 3 chances. Thus I think it fair to expect BYU to get 'er done about once a decade. I think the best chance was 2006 but BYU didn't get er done enough to get over the top. Another should come in the next couple of years.

I think it's pretty easy. If I'm understanding 71 correct. Instead of Bronco cracking on the fans for being passionate and upset about a loss when Bronco's program feeds off high expectations, he wants Bronco to stand up and say yeah I'd be pissed too if I were a fan after that TCU game. I'm pissed as a coach, and the players are pissed. We want to please our fans and it's one of our motivations.

[Goatnapper'96]

I think it's pretty easy. If I'm understanding 71 correct. Instead of Bronco cracking on the fans for being passionate and upset about a loss when Bronco's program feeds off high expectations, he wants Bronco to stand up and say yeah I'd be pissed too if I were a fan after that TCU game. I'm pissed as a coach, and the players are pissed. We want to please our fans and it's one of our motivations.

I can agree with the concept that Mendenhall PR blunders exacerbate the situation, but I believe there is a gap in the BYU fanbase between expectations and reality. Especially in light of Utah getting to the BCS twice in a 5 year period. Further, Utah makes it to elite status when they have a good qb. Who here does not think Wynn is going to be good as a JR and SR? It could really get rough for BYU fans in 2 or 3 more years.

[HuskyFreeNorthwest]

That is not to say that I don't think BYU has the capability to make an occassional national splash. I work in the 1/3 by 1/3 rule. I think BYU has the potential to make a national splash, i.e. make a BCS run, every 1 out of 3 years. I think that the many other elements BYU can't control will line up favorably 1 out of those 3 chances. Thus I think it fair to expect BYU to get 'er done about once a decade. I think the best chance was 2006 but BYU didn't get er done enough to get over the top. Another should come in the next couple of years.

What do you define as a chance? If you are saying 2006 was the last real chance, then we will never have a chance. 2006 started 1-2 with the win being over Double Directional A&M Tech State. This year and last year were much more realistic chances, so that means no chance again for the next 2-4 years.

[Mormon Red Death]

I can agree with the concept that Mendenhall PR blunders exacerbate the situation, but I believe there is a gap in the BYU fanbase between expectations and reality. Especially in light of Utah getting to the BCS twice in a 5 year period. Further, Utah makes it to elite status when they have a good qb. Who here does not think Wynn is going to be good as a JR and SR? It could really get rough for BYU fans in 2 or 3 more years.

Jr or sr?? Try as a freshmen! (Sorry I was channeling my inner su)

[Goatnapper'96]

What do you define as a chance? If you are saying 2006 was the last real chance, then we will never have a chance. 2006 started 1-2 with the win being over Double Directional A&M Tech State. This year and last year were much more realistic chances, so that means no chance again for the next 2-4 years.

What I mean by chance is that the BYU team is actually good enough. The last good team at BYU was the 2006 team. I believe that if that team had come along later in Bronco's tenure, with the schedule it played, it is likely to go undefeated. The three teams since have not been as good a club. I believe the biggest issue, talent wise, BYU has dealt with the past two years have been lackluster LB talent. I think that starts changing next season, but the offense needs to reload on skill players and BYU needs to pull a rabbit out its hat to replace Unga.

[Goatnapper'96]

Jr or sr?? Try as a freshmen! (Sorry I was channeling my inner su)

LOL! Ty Detmer, as a freshman, did more damage to a UNM team that was even better than the one he faced!

Next year he will have some growing pains and the defense will have to reload. Either his junior or senior year the U has a good chance for another elite national splash.

[pelagius]

What do you define as a chance? If you are saying 2006 was the last real chance, then we will never have a chance. 2006 started 1-2 with the win being over Double Directional A&M Tech State. This year and last year were much more realistic chances, so that means no chance again for the next 2-4 years.

Yes, but the two loses could have easily turned on just a couple of bounces. If BYU just got a little luckier BYU might have been undefeated. In my view, a huge part of going undefeated for any really good team is getting a bit lucky. This year no amount of luck was going to reverse the TCU or FSU games.

[Goatnapper'96]

Yes, but the two loses could have easily turned on just a couple of bounces. If BYU just got a little luckier BYU might have been undefeated. In my view, a huge part of going undefeated for any really good team is getting a bit lucky. This year no amount of luck was going to reverse the TCU or FSU games.

When I mean one out of three times will all the other elements outside of BYU's control line up, luck is certainly one of those elements. But my honest opinion on BYU in 2006 was that the two losses were as much lingering effects of a culture of losing as anything else. If that team were assembled in 2009 with that schedule, I think it likely BYU would go undefeated.

[pelagius]

I believe the biggest issue, talent wise, BYU has dealt with the past two years have been lackluster LB talent.

I think is right. I do wonder why the LB talent has been lacking. Is it just bad luck? Just a bad draw from the distribution? Are mediocre LBs more what we should expect out of BYU consistently? Did BYU drop the ball with regard to recruiting LBs?

[Indy Coug]

I think is right. I do wonder why the LB talent has been lacking. Is it just bad luck? Just a bad draw from the distribution? Are mediocre LBs more what we should expect out of BYU consistently? Did BYU drop the ball with regard to recruiting LBs?

I think a couple of LBs haven't panned out, a couple others have eaten their way to the DL, a couple of LBs chose another school and a couple of others have had bad grades and one notable player had his entry delayed by a year due to off-the-field issues.

On top of that, there is a substantial talent base that is in the mission field.

[creekster]

what does it mean to have your religion be perpendicular to your football?