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  • BCS Fairness

    TCU started the season ranked 17th.

    Their OOC SOS was relatively weak. #17 (computer polls) Clemson, #77 Virginia, #76 SMU, and a non D1A team.

    They're non-BCS.

    If they go undefeated, they likely won't have a win over a top 15 team.

    Yet TCU needs one loss ahead of them to be in the driver's seat for the national championship game.

    Is the BCS "fair"? I think you have a pretty tough time right now arguing it's not.

    Also, I liked the post the other day on CB hoping for a TCU loss because if TCU makes the championship game it will mean BCS folks can say its fair. Interesting concept. One hopes an entity remains unfair to one so that one can continue to label the entity unfair.

  • #2
    BYU will finish in the Top 15.
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    • #3
      This has crossed my mind as well. BYU has a much better chance of making a BCS game right now than it would in the PAC-10 or any other current BCS conference. The best case scenario is for the MWC to be accepted as a BCS conference so that we can continue playing our mediocre schedule while having an even greater chance of going to a BCS bowl. If anything, that situation would make the BCS unfair to the teams in better conferences.

      I've mostly stopped worrying about the BCS at this point. The current system is actually pretty fair for teams in the MWC and WAC. The one argument to be made is that Utah last year and TCU this year would have gotten a shot at #1 if it were in a BCS conference, but that doesn't seem to be a good argument. Does anyone think TCU deserves it over Texas or Florida right now? If Texas loses, perhaps an argument could be made, but then do they deserve a shot over Cincinatti? It seems like they're getting just as much consideration as any other team right now, and are being judged solely on how they've played against who, just like everybody else.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by jay santos View Post
        Also, I liked the post the other day on CB hoping for a TCU loss because if TCU makes the championship game it will mean BCS folks can say its fair. Interesting concept. One hopes an entity remains unfair to one so that one can continue to label the entity unfair.
        They aren't really hoping it remains unfair, since as you have pointed out it is pretty fair. Rather they are hoping that a non-AQ team fails so that they can continue to label it unfair and whine. If TCU does not go undefeated there would be nothing unfair about them not being in the BCS Championship game.
        Get confident, stupid
        -landpoke

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        • #5
          My complaints about the BCS are:
          1) We don't have real access to a championship game. I think Utah deserved a chance both last year and in 2004.
          2) I think a college football playoff would be really fun to watch.
          3) There's no reason that we should have to alternate with the WAC in getting BCS money, while Baylor gets it (and maybe double it) every year.

          Other than that (and I don't think those are huge complaints), I'm fine with the current system. And yes, BYU absolutely has a much better chance (should be 1 in 4 years, on average) of making a BCS game where they are than they would in the PAC 10 or Big 12.
          At least the Big Ten went after a big-time addition in Nebraska; the Pac-10 wanted a game so badly, it added Utah
          -Berry Trammel, 12/3/10

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          • #6
            Originally posted by ERCougar View Post
            My complaints about the BCS are:
            1) We don't have real access to a championship game. I think Utah deserved a chance both last year and in 2004.
            2) I think a college football playoff would be really fun to watch.
            3) There's no reason that we should have to alternate with the WAC in getting BCS money, while Baylor gets it (and maybe double it) every year.

            Other than that (and I don't think those are huge complaints), I'm fine with the current system. And yes, BYU absolutely has a much better chance (should be 1 in 4 years, on average) of making a BCS game where they are than they would in the PAC 10 or Big 12.
            When you say Utah deserved a chance in 2004, which team that actually played for the title do you think did not deserve to be there? Oklahoma was AP and coaches #2 and SC was AP and Coaches #1 going into the Orange Bowl.
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            • #7
              Originally posted by TripletDaddy View Post
              When you say Utah deserved a chance in 2004, which team that actually played for the title do you think did not deserve to be there? Oklahoma was AP and coaches #2 and SC was AP and Coaches #1 going into the Orange Bowl.
              I think what he is saying is that given 5 undefeated teams(and how badly OU got capped by USC), that it would have been fun to watch Auburn, Utah, and even Boise play an elimination tournament to determine a NC. USC very well have won out, but what is the fun in voting for a champ when they can play for one.
              "The first thing I learned upon becoming a head coach after fifteen years as an assistant was the enormous difference between making a suggestion and making a decision."

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              • #8
                Originally posted by jay santos View Post
                TCU started the season ranked 17th.

                Their OOC SOS was relatively weak. #17 (computer polls) Clemson, #77 Virginia, #76 SMU, and a non D1A team.

                They're non-BCS.

                If they go undefeated, they likely won't have a win over a top 15 team.

                Yet TCU needs one loss ahead of them to be in the driver's seat for the national championship game.

                Is the BCS "fair"? I think you have a pretty tough time right now arguing it's not.

                Also, I liked the post the other day on CB hoping for a TCU loss because if TCU makes the championship game it will mean BCS folks can say its fair. Interesting concept. One hopes an entity remains unfair to one so that one can continue to label the entity unfair.
                Ah BCS apologists. How is it TCUs fault that clemson sucked it up against some crappy teams and also was able to beat some good ones? Or that Virginia sucks? Who does Texas play that all that better than BYU or Utah? Florida has played like 2 ranked teams all year.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Jarid in Cedar View Post
                  I think what he is saying is that given 5 undefeated teams(and how badly OU got capped by USC), that it would have been fun to watch Auburn, Utah, and even Boise play an elimination tournament to determine a NC. USC very well have won out, but what is the fun in voting for a champ when they can play for one.
                  Yeah, that's my point--we're still voting (to a large extent) on who has access and as long as we're voting, it's nearly impossible for a MWC team to get in.
                  At least the Big Ten went after a big-time addition in Nebraska; the Pac-10 wanted a game so badly, it added Utah
                  -Berry Trammel, 12/3/10

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by jay santos View Post
                    TCU started the season ranked 17th.

                    Their OOC SOS was relatively weak. #17 (computer polls) Clemson, #77 Virginia, #76 SMU, and a non D1A team.

                    They're non-BCS.

                    If they go undefeated, they likely won't have a win over a top 15 team.

                    Yet TCU needs one loss ahead of them to be in the driver's seat for the national championship game.

                    Is the BCS "fair"? I think you have a pretty tough time right now arguing it's not.

                    Also, I liked the post the other day on CB hoping for a TCU loss because if TCU makes the championship game it will mean BCS folks can say its fair. Interesting concept. One hopes an entity remains unfair to one so that one can continue to label the entity unfair.
                    LOL. Your post tells me the BCS is not fair because TCU has gotten more than it deserves.

                    Right now, TCU is coattailing Utah 2008 BIG TIME.
                    When a true genius appears, you can know him by this sign: that all the dunces are in a confederacy against him.

                    --Jonathan Swift

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by jay santos View Post
                      Is the BCS "fair"? I think you have a pretty tough time right now arguing it's not.
                      I don't think the BCS is grossly unfair but, like others, I would instead argue that it is quite far from optimal. To me optimal would involve a playoff system.

                      In terms of BCS fairness I would suggest the following limit BCS fairness.

                      (1) W/L based computer models ... Look I don't think any computer model can really give you a true sort that picks the two best teams with any degree of confidence (I think it can give you a list of 16 teams that has a high probability of containing the 10 best teams in the country). Try actually performing any sort of statistical inference from a college football computer model; in a reasonably designed test you're lucky if you can reject that the 1st and 25th ranked team are statistically different. Additionally, W/L only computer models are a complete joke. Until, the BCS incorporates reasonable MOV based models it will continue to inject more noise into the process than necessary.

                      (2) The coaches poll ... it is as least as bad as W/L based computer models.

                      I should say I don't think either one are particularly unfair to non-BCS school relative to BCS schools.
                      Last edited by pelagius; 11-11-2009, 04:28 PM.

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                      • #12
                        I should mention that when I say I've stopped worrying about the BCS, I'm referring to the MWC's situation as outsiders. A properly arranged playoff has a very good chance of making college football a much better sport.

                        That having been said, I still like BYU's chances of placing in the top 10, top 5 or even of winning another championship a lot better right now than in a playoff.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Maximus View Post
                          Ah BCS apologists. How is it TCUs fault that clemson sucked it up against some crappy teams and also was able to beat some good ones? Or that Virginia sucks? Who does Texas play that all that better than BYU or Utah? Florida has played like 2 ranked teams all year.
                          I used to be in the biggest BCS hater of all. My hatred for the BCS started even before the BCS was organized and it was just Rose Bowl, Orange Bowl, etc working separately. I've softened a lot. I still favor a playoff, but I think 9/10 arguments made against the BCS by BYU fans are pretty weak.

                          I'm not making the point you argue against. My point is in relative fairness between a BCS school and a non-BCS school within a defined system.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Jarid in Cedar View Post
                            I think what he is saying is that given 5 undefeated teams(and how badly OU got capped by USC), that it would have been fun to watch Auburn, Utah, and even Boise play an elimination tournament to determine a NC. USC very well have won out, but what is the fun in voting for a champ when they can play for one.
                            I can roll with that. That would have been pretty cool.
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                            • #15
                              My biggest complaint is not BCS access at this point, but the crappy non-BCS bowls we're saddled with. Perhaps becoming an auto-qualifier will help with public perception enough that a couple better bowls will sign with us so that we don't keep sending our top team (or #2 team) to play against the PAC-10 dregs or the WAC.
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