BCS rankings

[Hot Lunch]

TCU at #4

Utah is 16

http://espn.go.com/college-football/bcs

TCU is praying that Texas drops a game.

[Commando]

ughh... Texas could have very easily lost to OU a few weeks ago. Who do they have left? Baylor, Kansas, A & M....

[Hot Lunch]

ughh... Texas could have very easily lost to OU a few weeks ago. Who do they have left? Baylor, Kansas, A & M....

And whatever weak team that comes out of the Big 12 north to play them in the BIG XII championship game.

[OrangeUte]

Was oregons loss yesterday thereason Utah dropped?

[Fiyero]

Was oregons loss yesterday thereason Utah dropped?

That, and New Mexico's average computer ranking is 160.

[BoylenOver]

BCS at-large bids: who gets them? It seems really tough at this point. TCU and the SEC runner-up will fill two, but who gets the other two, especially if the PAC-10 is a one-bid league? Iowa? Miami? Boise St?

[TripletDaddy]

BCS at-large bids: who gets them? It seems really tough at this point. TCU and the SEC runner-up will fill two, but who gets the other two, especially if the PAC-10 is a one-bid league? Iowa? Miami? Boise St?

If USC wins out, it will get an at-large bid, easily. There is zero question there.

[pelagius]

Was oregons loss yesterday thereason Utah dropped?

Oregon's loss probably had no effect in most computer models. It is probably almost entirely the New Mexico loss. I created a W/L based computer model and ran the numbers three ways:

Results as played:

Rank SOS Rank
21 106


Results if Oregon vs Stanford is dropped

Rank SOS Rank
21 104



Results if Utah v. New Mexico is dropped

Rank SOS Rank
17 78


The Oregon loss had a really small effect; no effect on ranking in my model and a very small effect on SOS. The computers still rank Oregon pretty highly so that loss is stil l really helping the Utes SOS.

Playing New Mexico was very costly. Utah's SOS tanked. In a W/L model playing someone like New Mexico is always going to hurt. In a MOV model it wouldn't have hurt since Utah won by a lot. On the other hand, the W/L based models rank Utah a lot higher than the MOV. The Utes have just had too many close games against bad to mediocre teams for the MOV models too give them much love at this point.

On the other hand the Utes might move up in W/L based models even if they lose to TCU.

[OrangeUte]

Oregon's loss probably had no effect in most computer models. It is probably almost entirely the New Mexico loss. I created a W/L based computer model and ran the numbers three ways:

Results as played:

Rank SOS Rank
21 106


Results if Oregon vs Stanford is dropped

Rank SOS Rank
21 104



Results if Utah v. New Mexico is dropped

Rank SOS Rank
17 78


The Oregon loss had a really small effect; no effect on ranking in my model and a very small effect on SOS. The computers still rank Oregon pretty highly so that loss is stil l really helping the Utes SOS.

Playing New Mexico was very costly. Utah's SOS tanked. In a W/L model playing someone like New Mexico is always going to hurt. In a MOV model it wouldn't have hurt since Utah won by a lot. On the other hand, the W/L based models rank Utah a lot higher than the MOV. The Utes have just had too many close games against bad to mediocre teams for the MOV models too give them much love at this point.

On the other hand the Utes might move up in W/L based models even if they lose to TCU.

it's nice to be surrounded by such smart people... thanks, pelagius!

[ERCougar]

Oregon's loss probably had no effect in most computer models. It is probably almost entirely the New Mexico loss. I created a W/L based computer model and ran the numbers three ways:

Results as played:

Rank SOS Rank
21 106


Results if Oregon vs Stanford is dropped

Rank SOS Rank
21 104



Results if Utah v. New Mexico is dropped

Rank SOS Rank
17 78


The Oregon loss had a really small effect; no effect on ranking in my model and a very small effect on SOS. The computers still rank Oregon pretty highly so that loss is stil l really helping the Utes SOS.

Playing New Mexico was very costly. Utah's SOS tanked. In a W/L model playing someone like New Mexico is always going to hurt. In a MOV model it wouldn't have hurt since Utah won by a lot. On the other hand, the W/L based models rank Utah a lot higher than the MOV. The Utes have just had too many close games against bad to mediocre teams for the MOV models too give them much love at this point.

On the other hand the Utes might move up in W/L based models even if they lose to TCU.

I wonder what will happen to TCU's rankings after they play Utah? That should help their SOS some, right? Enough to move up?

[Hot Lunch]

I wonder what will happen to TCU's rankings after they play Utah? That should help their SOS some, right? Enough to move up?

It will.... Then it will take a pretty big hit because they finish the season with Wyoming and New Mexico.

[scottie]

I wonder what will happen to TCU's rankings after they play Utah? That should help their SOS some, right? Enough to move up?

It will.... Then it will take a pretty big hit because they finish the season with Wyoming and New Mexico.

Hopefully that doesn't drop them below Boise St. (if they beat Utah, of course).

[pelagius]

I wonder what will happen to TCU's rankings after they play Utah? That should help their SOS some, right? Enough to move up?

It is hard to say if it will be enough to move them up without a loss in front of them. If I just plug in a TCU win into a W/L model then I do see them moving up one spot (Utah moves down 5-6). But adding a game in isolation like that is usually not a good predictor of things for obvious reasons. To do it right, in terms of predicting, one should plug in all the expected outcomes based on the Vegas betting spreads and see what happens (but I'm not going to do that). That would be a reasonable predictor of what will happen to the computer models if TCU wins.

[OrangeUte]

BCS at-large bids: who gets them? It seems really tough at this point. TCU and the SEC runner-up will fill two, but who gets the other two, especially if the PAC-10 is a one-bid league? Iowa? Miami? Boise St?

this is a hard question because there is still so much football to play.

but, that's why college football is so much fun to talk about...

i would think that oklahoma state has a chance to play as an at large if they win out. therefore, i would say that the at large's will go to the SEC runner-up, TCU (if they win out) or Boise State (not both, if that happened i would be shocked!), USC (assuming they don't win the Pac-10, and Oklahoma State.

This list will be totally different next week, though.

[Fiyero]

Hopefully that doesn't drop them below Boise St. (if they beat Utah, of course).

Boise's remaining schedule is just as bad. The Broncos are going to be jumped by one-loss Georgia Tech if the Jackets beat Georgia.