Looks like the opening line is Utah by 4.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-...dds/las-vegas/
I think empirically a team favored by 4 wins between 55-60 percent of time (maybe closer to 60% than 55%). Certainly, the betting market isn't perfectly efficient but this is probably a resonable estimate of the probability that Utah wins. The initial spread is basically rating the teams as almost equal and Utah is deriving almost all of the ex ante advantage from home field
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-...dds/las-vegas/
I think empirically a team favored by 4 wins between 55-60 percent of time (maybe closer to 60% than 55%). Certainly, the betting market isn't perfectly efficient but this is probably a resonable estimate of the probability that Utah wins. The initial spread is basically rating the teams as almost equal and Utah is deriving almost all of the ex ante advantage from home field
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