Pass efficiency vs Passer rating

[cougjunkie]

Early someone made the argument that Max Hall has such a high pass efficiency because it does not weight interceptions as heavily as the Passer rating formula does that the NFL uses. So I input Max stats in to the Passer rating calculator and he would have a passer rating of 93.6 which if he was in the NFL would put him in the top 10 of all NFL QBs. I also input the top 15 in the NCAA in to it to see if it changed how they ranked:

1. Jimmy Clausen: PE- 179.25, PR: 123.25
2. Kellen Moore: PE- 176.61, PR: 125.09
3. Tim Tebow: PE- 170.31, PR: 118.6
4. Blaine Gabbert: PE- 168.57, PR: 122.3
5. Bill Stull: PE- 167.49, PR: 120.9
6. Greg Mcelroy: PE- 165.48, PR: 113.9
7. GJ Kinne: PE- 161.66, PR: 112.3
8. Chris Todd: PE- 160.81, PR: 114.1
9. Andy Dalton: PE- 160.63, PR: 108.9
10. Greg Alexander: PE- 160.05, PR: 105.22
11. Tony Pike: PE- 159.95, PR: 111.11
12. Ryan Mallett: PE- 159.93, PR: 109.4
13. Nick Roles: PE- 156.89, 119.4
14. Max Hall: PE- 155.65, PR: 93.6
15. Zac Robinson: PE- 155.33, PR: 104.6

Max is obviously not as heavily penalized by interceptions in the formula the NCAA uses. In fact I picked a few random players to plug in to get an idea on where Max would stand nationally in regards to passer rating:

20. Jarrett Brown:PE- 153.30, PR: 97.22 (has 7 tds and 5 ints)
28. Joe Kemp: PE- 150.77, PR: 91.86 (has 4tds and 4 ints)
60. Terrence Cain: PE- 131.92, PR: 85.2

For those that are curious the formulas are as follows:

PE: The NCAA formula is: [ { (8.4 * yards) + (330 * touchdowns) - (200 * interceptions) + (100 * completions) } / attempts ].

PR: [25 + 10 * (Completion Percentage) + 40 * (Touchdown Percentage)

- 50 * (Interception Percentage) + 50 * (Yards/Attempt)] /12

The main differences between the formulas are:

1.Those quantities are scaled differently. For example, the NFL awards 4.17 points per yard-per-attempt, while the NCAA awards 8.4.
2.The more important difference is that the NFL values are "capped," while the NCAA values are not. For example, the NFL caps for completion percentage are 30% (low end) and 77.5% (high end). A passer who completes 90% of his passes gets the same score for completion percentage as one who completes 77.5%. A passer who completes 10% of his passes gets the same score for completion percentage as one who completes 30%.

[Indy Coug]

The NFL passer rating capping values is one of the most bizarre things I've ever seen. How a person can go 0 for 1,000 for 0 yards and get a passer rating of 39.6 is just stupid.

Personally, I think the NCAA doesn't penalize enough for interceptions and I think the NFL may be a little too penal.

[RockyBalboa]

While BYU's turnover ratio sucks.....the stat that troubles me more than all of that is our 3rd Down Defense Percentage still stinks like it did last year. BYU is 104th in 3rd Defense Percentage.

That's REALLY bad.

That stat bothers me a whole lot more than Max having 10 INT's and the team having 15 turnovers in 5 games.

[Indy Coug]

I agree about the 3rd down defense. It's especially bad when you consider that OU was 2 for 11 on 3rd downs, which means that BYU has been truly abysmal over the last 4 weeks.

Tulane - 4 for 12
FSU - 12 for 15
CSU - 7 for 17
USU - 6 for 14

Total: 29 for 58

[RockyBalboa]

I agree about the 3rd down defense. It's especially bad when you consider that OU was 2 for 11 on 3rd downs, which means that BYU has been truly abysmal over the last 4 weeks.

Tulane - 4 for 12
FSU - 12 for 15
CSU - 7 for 17
USU - 6 for 14

Total: 29 for 58

Wow that IS really bad. I'm sure some of those have come with the games already decided on a couple of late drives, but I would doubt enough to justify having such a bad rating in that category.

[RockyBalboa]

I agree about the 3rd down defense. It's especially bad when you consider that OU was 2 for 11 on 3rd downs, which means that BYU has been truly abysmal over the last 4 weeks.

Tulane - 4 for 12
FSU - 12 for 15
CSU - 7 for 17
USU - 6 for 14

Total: 29 for 58

Wow that IS really bad. I'm sure some of those have come with the games already decided on a couple of late drives, but I would doubt enough to justify having such a bad rating in that category.

IMO I think that stat is the #1 reason why we lost to Utah last year, even in spite of Hall's 6 turnovers in that game. Our defense couldn't stop them, and Utah just dinked and dunked and picked us apart the entire game.

It's a helpless feeling watching the opposition be in 3rd down, regardless of how many yards needed, and having no confidence that our D will stop them.

[Indy Coug]

The stat that would be really disturbing is the 3rd down conversions allowed by BYU on 3rd and 8 or longer.

[SCcoug]

The stat that would be really disturbing is the 3rd down conversions allowed by BYU on 3rd and 8 or longer.

Earlier today, Bronco noted third-down defense as an area to work on, and "third-and-long" in particular. On 3rd-and 10 or longer, BYU has allowed 10 of 24 attempts to be converted, for a rate of 42%.

BYU has had 16 attempts of 3rd-and-10 or longer, and converted five, for 31%.

Not good.

[Indy Coug]

Last year, the NCAA was 1245 for 5923 (0.211) on 3rd and 10+ , which is twice as good as BYU's 2009 numbers.